270
FXUS66 KLOX 042125
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
225 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...04/222 PM.

A cold storm system will move over the region through Sunday
bringing periods of light rain to the area through tonight.
Temperatures will be much cooler than normal through Sunday and
there will be gusty winds at times. Dry and warmer weather is
expected next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...04/214 PM.

A cold but weakening storm is moving into the area this afternoon.
The leading edge of the rain is close to the SLO/Monterey county
line as of 2pm and it will continue to progress south and east
across the area through the pre-dawn hours Sunday.
Sprinkles/showers are expected to last no longer than 3-4 hours in
any one location. Storms like this that move inland over northern
California and move south along the Sierra spine typically result
in lighter rainfall amounts locally, and especially from
southeast Santa Barbara to western LA County due to downsloping
flow off the Transverse range. Northwest SLO County still
expecting to be the winner locally with amounts from a half to
three quarters of an inch, but then dropping rapidly to the south.
There may be a little reinforcing southwest flow over southeastern
LA County that will generate slightly higher rain rates there and
especially in the eastern San Gabriel Mountains, but amounts
there should top off at around a half inch. Snow levels along the
frontal boundary are way up above 8000 feet so only the highest
peaks will see any frozen precip.

All the precip will be out of the area before the sun rises
Sunday, except for possibly some lingering light showers on the
north facing slopes Sunday morning. Otherwise, clearing skies
expected with plenty of sunshine but temperatures well below
normal.

The storm is generating some gusty westerly winds today and these
will continue into Sunday as well, strongest in the mountains and
Antelope Valley.

Dry and warmer weather expected Monday and Tuesday, but with some
gusty northerly winds at times, especially southern Santa Barbara
County and the I5 corridor.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...04/221 PM.

A slow warming trend is expected to continue through next week,
but with some uncertainties later in the week and next weekend as
some model solutions show a weak upper low developing over
northern California. The only expected outcome from this would be
slightly cooler temperatures than currently predicted. Otherwise,
with the exception of daily north winds across the mountains and
southern Santa Barbara County, weather conditions are expected to
low impact with highs near to slightly above normal levels by mid
week.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1701Z.

At 1600Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 5600 feet with a temperature of 13 degrees
Celsius.

Overall, low to moderate confidence in 18Z TAF package. Combination
of deep marine inversion with approaching weak system will bring
clouds and visibilities ranging from IFR to MVFR through the
period. Confidence in timing of flight category changes will be
low through the period. Light showers will be possible across the
area late this afternoon through tonight.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of
MVFR CIGs 18Z-04Z. For tonight, high confidence in return of MVFR
CIGs, but only moderate confidence in timing (could be +/- 3 hours
of current 04Z forecast). High confidence in VFR conditions after
15Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 40% chance that
VFR conditions will develop 18Z-03Z. For tonight, high confidence
in return of MVFR CIGs, but only moderate confidence in timing
(could be +/- 3 hours of current 03Z forecast).

&&

.MARINE...04/212 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Tonight through Wednesday, high confidence in
combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas
(with SCA level seas developing Tuesday/Wednesday). There is a 50%
chance of Gale force winds Sunday afternoon through Sunday night
then again Tuesday and Tuesday night. For Thursday, there is a
40-50% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Wednesday, high
confidence in a combination of SCA level winds and seas (with the
SCA level seas developing Tuesday/Wednesday). There is a 30%
chance of Gale force winds Sunday afternoon/evening then again
Tuesday/Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Sunday night, high
confidence in SCA level winds (with the strongest winds across
western sections). There is a 50% chance of Gale force winds
Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. For Monday through Wednesday,
there is a 60-70% chance of SCA level winds across the western
half of the Santa Barbara Channel and a 30% chance of SCA level
winds elsewhere. For Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday
      for zones 87-340-341-346>348-354-355-362-366. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from 11 PM this evening to 3
      AM PDT Monday for zones 349>353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 379>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM
      PDT Sunday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late
      Sunday night for zones 650-655-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Sunday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox