649
FXXX10 KWNP 100031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 10 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 10-May 12 2024 is 8.33 (NOAA Scale
G4).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 10-May 12 2024

             May 10       May 11       May 12
00-03UT       3.33         5.33 (G1)    4.67 (G1)
03-06UT       3.67         7.00 (G3)    5.67 (G2)
06-09UT       3.67         8.33 (G4)    4.67 (G1)
09-12UT       3.00         6.67 (G3)    4.00
12-15UT       2.67         5.67 (G2)    3.67
15-18UT       3.67         5.00 (G1)    2.67
18-21UT       4.33         4.67 (G1)    2.67
21-00UT       5.33 (G1)    4.33         3.67

Rationale: G1-2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on 10-12
May due to multiple CMEs from AR 3634 spanning 08-09 May. G3 (Strong) to
G4 (Severe or greater) geomagnetic storming is likely on 11 May as the
bulk of the activity is expected to arrive during the early hours of the
UTC day.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 10-May 12 2024

              May 10  May 11  May 12
S1 or greater   50%     50%     50%

Rationale: A high chance for S1-2 (Minor-Moderate) solar radiation
storms will persist through the forecast period due to the potential
exhibited by AR 3634, in tandem with current conditions and expected
shock arrival enhancements from inbound CMEs.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 09 2024 0913 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 10-May 12 2024

              May 10        May 11        May 12
R1-R2           95%           95%           95%
R3 or greater   60%           60%           60%

Rationale: R3 (Strong or greater) radio blackouts due to isolated
X-class flare activity are likely to continue through the forecast
period primarily due to AR 3634.