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000
FXUS64 KSHV 191744
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1244 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Very diffuse frontal boundary late this morning is slowly
backdooring itself southward across Northern Louisiana and Deep
East Texas attm. Latest progs confirm that this boundary will
continue its slow southward drift through the day and may be a sfc
trigger for isolated showers/storms across our far southern zones
later today. Further north, going to hold onto slight chance pops
as well as latest CAMS and HRRR suggests that we could see some
post frontal development and this is certainly possible given the
fact that the 850mb boundary remains north of our region attm. All
this to say no changes to the pop forecast for the remainder of
the day.

Did however raise temps slightly across the I-20 Corridor of N LA
as 15z temps were within a couple degrees of forecast highs even
through the frontal boundary drifting southward should slow the
warming trend. All other areas are in the ballpark so no
additional changes were necessary.

13

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A slowly advancing frontal boundary continues to shift SE near the
I-30 corridor early this morning, evident by the wind shift to the
NW and subsequent cool air advection. Ambient temperatures are in
the upper 50s to mid 60s north of the boundary compared to mostly
in the 70s south. As for convection, the only activity remains to
our north near the Little Rock metro area where a shortwave is
contributing to a few isolated strong to severe storms. With the
relative lack of forcing across our region today, convection will
remain hard to come by aside from just some very isolated showers
and perhaps a stray thunderstorm as the cold front continues its
slow but steady progression SE throughout the day. The speed of
the front could be problematic in terms of the high temperature
forecast for today, resulting in quite a spread from the mid and
upper 60s NW to the lower and mid 80s SE.

By early this evening, the cold front should be very near if not
clearing our far southern zones just as a series of shortwave
impulses begin to emerge across North Texas into the Middle Red
River Valley. As the first in this series of shortwave impulses
transitions through the W/SW flow pattern starting late tonight
through Saturday, expect showers to gradually become widespread
with embedded thunderstorms increasingly likely later in the day
on Saturday. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler following
fropa with little movement expected throughout the day as highs
only manage the mid and upper 50s north into the lower 60s along
I-20 and slightly warmer farther south.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Convection will remain ongoing with the bulk of rainfall likely
coming on Saturday night through the first half of Sunday as the
primary shortwave pivots overhead. Total event rainfall amounts
will generally range from 1-3 inches across the region with the
heavier totals expected along and near the I-20 corridor. This
additional rainfall on top of what has already fallen earlier in
the month will likely contribute to more rises on area waterways,
albeit not to the degree that was previously observed based on the
current rainfall projections. Regardless, expect the ongoing minor
river flooding to persist along our area waterways still in flood,
likely extending well into next week if not longer.

As the last in this series of shortwaves finally departs by late
Sunday, dry weather will return and continue through early next
week. Advancing high pressure will eventually shift east of the
region by late Monday into early Tuesday, resulting in southerly
return flow and a warming trend that will push temperatures back
near seasonal averages for late April. Near zonal flow aloft will
continue through Tuesday before the pattern becomes more unsettled
by mid to late week. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak trough
advancing eastward from the Plains into mid-section of the country
by Tuesday night into Wednesday with fairly low-end rain chances
across our region. However, a much more potent trough is progged
to shift our direction by the end of next week, showing signals of
our next potential for severe weather by the end of this forecast
period next Friday.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Terminal forecast remains sloppy as hazardous flight conditions
will materialize across the airspace late tonight and through the
period tomorrow. This will include multiple rounds of SHRA/TSRA
starting as early as 20/09z. Along with this, reduced VSBY across
the terminals is to be expected as a result of low CIGs and the
aforementioned precip hazards through the period. Restrictions
down to IFR, potentially even LIFR, is possible as a result of
heavy precip associated with any TSRA and heavier BR evolution.
Very little improvement is to be expected through this TAF period
and likely the next as this will hold the bulk of the weather
expected. Under any TSRA/SHRA, terminal winds will trend VRB, but
the trend is for winds to remain northeasterly, remaining on the
elevated side between 10-15 kts.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  63  51  64 /  40  80  90  30
MLU  56  63  50  62 /  20  60  90  50
DEQ  49  57  46  65 /  70  90  80  10
TXK  53  57  48  64 /  60  90  90  20
ELD  49  58  46  63 /  50  80  90  30
TYR  57  62  50  64 /  60  90 100  20
GGG  56  62  49  64 /  50  80 100  20
LFK  64  74  51  65 /  20  70  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...53