Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

565
FXUS64 KSHV 240549
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1149 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, KTXK is VLIFR attm with MVFR/VFR everywhere
else, but a FG bank is colocated with a stationary front over NE
TX/S OK, shwrs/TSTMS over OK moving NE25KT along front. The parent
upper low in the Rockies is nudging the front our way for Sat w/
heating adding chance for severe TSTMS in the midday to sunset
timeframe. S/SW and sustain 10-20KT with gusts to 30KT during
Saturday with fropa 25/00-06Z for our terminals. Look for more
IFR/MVFR w/ convection. Winds W/NW 25/03Z-09Z W-E across area.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 931 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/

UPDATE...
Enjoying a clean radar this evening across the Four State Region
but this will change as we transition into the pre and post dawn
hours on Saturday with strong to severe thunderstorms likely
across most of the region along with another shot of flash flood
producing rainfall possibly.

Until that time, not seeing much that would support renewed
convective development overnight across most of our region through
the overnight hours. The exception to this is our NW zones as
subtle forcing overnight should begin increasing after midnight
and especially towards daybreak. For this reason, have lowered
pops to slight chance variety across all but our NW zones.

Sfc Warm Front is very subtle tonight but appears to be located
near a Tyler, Texas to El Dorado, Arkansas line. A very slow
northward movement is expected overnight and it should be through
all but our extreme NW zones by sunrise. Until that time, have
added areas of fog to the grids north of the warm front with some
observing sites showing some patchy dense fog this evening.

Did not make any significant changes to overnight temperatures but
did address the lack of cloud cover across our southern zones with
this area likely filling back in after midnight.

Otherwise, no other changes attm...13.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  77  49  66 /  20  90  80  30
MLU  67  80  54  64 /  20  50  80  50
DEQ  58  72  39  65 /  50 100  10  10
TXK  61  74  44  66 /  30 100  30  10
ELD  62  77  47  65 /  20  80  80  20
TYR  60  75  45  68 /  20 100  20  20
GGG  64  76  46  67 /  20 100  30  20
LFK  67  79  52  64 /  20  90  70  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for ARZ060-061-
     070>073.

     Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

     Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for LAZ001>004.

OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

24/13



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.