Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 291357
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
857 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AND REMOVE HEAVY RAIN FROM FCST THIS
MORNING AS MCS MOVG INTO EASTERN TX EARLY THIS AM HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT RAPID CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT BY
MIDDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR EDGING INTO NE TX NOW WITH VFR ELSEWHERE FOR THE ARKLATEX
TERMINALS. LIGHT...BUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE GULF AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LOW AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY. EXPECTED
ROUNDS OF TSTMS TO AFFECT TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS.
GUSTY SFC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ANY CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE S/SW 20-40KTS ON UP
AND WILL BACK TO NE IN THE LOWER LEVELS LATE ON SAT WITH FROPA.
OUTLOOK...DAYBREAK BR/CIGS BUT JUST LATE DAY ISOLD TSTMS SUN/MON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THE AREA ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND RAINFALL MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE AREA RIVERS AND
WATER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AT FLOOD STAGE AND OUT OF THEIR BANKS WITH
LITTLE ALLOWANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WATER COLLECTION...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT
INCLUDES SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COME ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH
HIGH WATER LEVELS ONGOING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS
A SMALL LOW OVER LOUISIANA AND RETROGRADING INTO THE GULF OFF THE
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT WHERE THE SUN DOES RETURN
READING WILL CLIMB QUICKY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
MLU  86  69  84  67 /  60  60  60  50
DEQ  81  67  79  64 /  70  60  60  40
TXK  83  68  81  65 /  70  60  60  50
ELD  86  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
TYR  83  69  81  65 /  70  60  60  40
GGG  84  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
LFK  86  70  85  67 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$



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