Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 270250 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
950 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. ONLY A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SHWRS REMAIN NEAR NACOGDOCHES AND LUFKIN AND THOSE MAY
DISSIPATE BEFORE I CAN GET THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXT PRODUCTS
TRANSMITTED. THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND WILL HANDLE THESE FEW ISOLATED SHWRS WITH SHORT-TERM FORECAST
PRODUCTS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT...AND SKY GRIDS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 28/00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS EVENING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN AND AROUND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE. COULD SEE
A FEW DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 27/14Z
MONDAY. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WRN LA/EXTREME SW AR/SE OK/ADJACENT SECTIONS OF E TX...ALONG AND W
OF THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE
SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL AND NE LA. THIS
CONVECTION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...ALTHOUGH WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THIS
CONVECTION DRIFTING WSW THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING FOR THESE AREAS BEFORE DROPPING MENTION OVERNIGHT.

OF COURSE...THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE REMAINS OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH THE REGION HAVING REACHED THE UPPER
90S TO IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. IN FACT...AS OF 2045Z...SHV IS
ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY FROM TYING A RECORD HIGH TEMP OF 103 SET BACK IN
1925! UNFORTUNATELY...THE PRESENCE OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY JUST
TO THE E OVER NCNTRL LA/SW AR AND ATTENDANT 850MB THETA-E AXIS
HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR MUCH MIXING OF DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE
SFC...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER TIER OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108-110 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF SW AR/PORTIONS
OF NW AND NCNTRL LA. DON/T FORESEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS THE 850MB THETA-E AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
DESPITE THE REMNANTS OF THE SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY WASHING OUT
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE PERSISTENT
NEAR/IN EXCESS OF THE CENTURY MARK...THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY W A TAD TO INCLUDE AN ADDITIONAL COLUMN OF
COUNTIES IN E TX THAT ARE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY BE EXTENDED LATER IN TIME AS THE DEATH
RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP OVER THE SRN PLAINS/MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY.

THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE NOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD
SLOWLY DRIFT E THROUGH OK AND INTO AR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINTAINING THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N
LA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

A PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS IN THE OFFING THOUGH BY LATE
WEEK...AS THE DEATH RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO RETROGRADE W BACK
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION/GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. WEAKNESSES ALOFT WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...BEFORE TAPERING
POPS OFF FROM THE NE FRIDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SW
AROUND THE RIDGE. WHILE LOWER RH/S ARE EXPECTED...ATTM TEMPS DON/T
LOOK TO COOL OFF MUCH...WITH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY...DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL APPEAR TO ONLY
GET WORSE AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST.

THANKS WFO/S JAN/LZK/LCH/HGX FOR COORDINATION THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 101  78 100 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  75 100  75  99 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  73  99  73  98 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  76 101  76 100 /   0  10  10  10
ELD  74 100  74  99 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  78  98 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  75  99  74  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-126-
     137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

09


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