Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 300755
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
255 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH LESS CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WAS EXPECTED AND THIS
IS A SIGN THAT WE HAVE LOST NEARLY ALL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO OUR
NE AND THAT FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST. 07Z SFC ANALYSIS PUTS
THE FRONT NEAR A DFW...TXK...PBF LINE. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS FRONT BACKDOORING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...PERHAPS MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AR/LA BORDER INTO OUR NE PARISHES BEFORE WASHING OUT
LATER THIS AFTN. DO NOT SEE THE FRONT MOVING ANY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO TX TODAY. WITH ALL UPPER LEVEL FORCING NONEXISTENT...LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF BUT ISOLATED
COVERAGE AT BEST IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT
LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IS EXTENSIVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD HELP TO SCATTER THE CLOUD COVER
OUT WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE A PERSISTENT PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO AND
GIVEN A WARMING SOUTH WIND AT THE SFC...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE
MUCH WARMER GFSMOS TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL
LATELY COMPARED TO THE COOLER NAMMOS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON WED/WED NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A MUCH FLATTER TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF
THE TX HILL COUNTRY ON WED BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THOSE
PERIODS. THE TROUGH FILLS AND MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION BY THURSDAY
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS
BECOMING WSW. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY BRINGING
WITH IS A STRONG COLD FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET THE BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR REGION BEFORE THE
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT ALONG I-30.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE DOWN TOWARD I-20 OVERNIGHT AND STALL
WITH VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE CWA. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS FROM 06Z -18Z AND FROM N TO S
RESPECTIVELY THIS CYCLE. SFC WINDS BCMG N FOR KTXK/KELD AND KMLU.
ALOFT...WE ARE SW 10-40KTS...VEERING TO W/NW ABOVE 10KFT AND UP TO
50KTS ABOVE FL300...SO PRETTY LIGHT REALLY AND NOT LIKELY TO
CHANGE THIS WEEK.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  61  82  61 /  20  10  20  10
MLU  78  58  80  60 /  20  10  20  10
DEQ  77  58  78  59 /  10  20  30  20
TXK  77  59  79  60 /  10  20  30  20
ELD  77  58  78  60 /  20  20  30  20
TYR  80  62  82  62 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  80  61  82  61 /  20  10  20  10
LFK  84  61  83  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13



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