Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 060323
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
923 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY. IN FACT...WE ARE ALREADY AT FCST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AS OF 03Z THIS
EVENING.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING ELEVATED RETURNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...THIS PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO
OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL HAVE TO
SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AND OUR 00Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING
SHOWED VERY DRY AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. LATEST OOZ RUNS OF THE
NAM AND LATEST HRRR DATA SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MORE SO IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIMEFRAME BUT SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS ITS THESE
LOCATIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS FRAME.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAPID FALL IN
TEMPS THIS EVENING. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS THESE SAME
LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH 12Z SAT.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
BUT DO NOT FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE A BIG EVENT...OR EVEN MARGINAL
FOR THAT MATTER BEFORE TEMPS WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING.

ALL OTHER GRIDS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED FORECAST OUT
SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...EXITING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH SKC
THIS EVENING. THEN INCREASING MID DECKS FROM THE WEST AND VFR LOW
CLOUD FM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM OVER SW OK
ATTM. OVERCAST DECKS BY DAYBREAK WITH VICINITY SHOWERS FOR KSHV
AND VFR -RA FOR TX TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK TOWARD LUNCH. OUR SFC
WINDS ARE SE 5-10KTS AND EXTEND UP FOR A FEW THOUSAND FEET BEFORE
VEERING AROUND TO S/SW/W INTO THE MIDLEVEL FLOW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH SKC. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  53  33  61 /  10  30  10   0
MLU  34  52  32  60 /  10  10  10   0
DEQ  28  53  29  59 /  10  20   0   0
TXK  35  52  32  59 /  10  20  10   0
ELD  29  52  31  59 /  10  10  10   0
TYR  36  53  34  63 /  40  40  10   0
GGG  35  53  32  62 /  30  40  10   0
LFK  35  56  32  63 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13


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