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000
FXUS64 KSHV 200117
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
817 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION ATTM. WINDS SLOWLY
DECOUPLING FROM WEST TO EAST AND WITH THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRATION AT 8 PM...NEEDED TO UPDATE TO REMOVE THE HEADLINE FROM
THE ZONE PACKAGE.

TAKING A LOOK AT IR IMAGERY...SC DECK ACROSS SE TX/SW LA ADVANCING
NORTHWARD QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THIS PLUS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT. BELIEVE THE ONGOING
FORECAST HAS THIS WELL HANDLED AS FAR AS MIN TEMPS ARE CONCERNED.
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/NE OK WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF US
THROUGH THE NIGHT THUS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FOR THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE BY AROUND 20/08Z...AS STRONG SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
CONTINUES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE...WITH MOST
SITES VFR 20/15-17Z...AS SLY WINDS PICK UP AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 25 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE
TAF PD...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY N OF
I-30. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE SRN EXTENT OF
CONVECTION PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  89  73  88  69 /  10  10  20  50  50
MLU  72  89  72  88  69 /   0  10  10  40  40
DEQ  68  87  70  82  64 /  20  20  40  60  60
TXK  71  88  72  85  66 /  10  10  30  60  60
ELD  71  89  71  87  67 /  10  10  10  50  60
TYR  72  90  73  86  70 /  10  10  20  50  60
GGG  72  90  73  87  69 /  10  10  20  50  60
LFK  72  90  73  89  71 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001-002-010-011-017.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

13/12