Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 291215 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
715 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
A LOW STRATOCU FIELD MAY DEVELOP THROUGH MIDMORNING OVER E TX/N
LA...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS...BUT OTHERWISE...A SCT
CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS NNE IN WAKE OF THE WEAK FROPA SUNDAY. ISOLATED
ELEVATED -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING OVER SE
OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SW AR
TERMINALS AS IT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH...BUT WILL RESULT IN
10-12KFT CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE LFK TAF ATTM. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
SE IN VC OF A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SE OK/CNTRL AR THIS
EVENING...WHICH MAY RESULT IN WIDELY SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER SE OK/PORTIONS OF SW AR. THIS
CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS LATE...BUT AGAIN...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT
PRECLUDES MENTION ATTM. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 7-10KTS BY
MIDMORNING...AND DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE NRN SECTIONS OF
THE REGION FOR THIS MORNING AS A LINE OF WEAK CONVECTION ENTERS
OUR FAR NWRN ZONES. THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS TO WEAKEN
BUT IT SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT DOWN NEAR THE
I-30 CORRIDOR...ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER OVER THE SAME GENERAL
AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. NEW ZONE UPDATE IS ALREADY OUT. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ASIDE FROM THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD LAYERS OBSERVED ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...VERY LITTLE REMAINS TO DISCERN THE REMNANT FRONTAL BNDRY
WHICH HAD MOVED AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR EXTREME SRN ZONES ON SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING. AS THE GULF OPENS BACK UP TODAY DUE TO INCREASING
S/SW FLOW...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS TO RETURN AS SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION WILL ADVANCE NWRD INTO OUR SRN ZONES LATER TODAY
WHILE A SHORT WAVE DIVING SWRD OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE REMAINDER
OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE
TIME TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 90S PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF SHWRS AND
TSTMS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED...HENCE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN CARRIED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED FOR TUESDAY
AS THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...CARVING DEEPER INTO OUR REGION WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE PERTUBATIONS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION DURING MUCH OF TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER PATTERN
FINALLY SHIFTS WITH THE TROF SLIDING EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OUT
WEST BECOMING MORE INFLUENTIAL. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ENTIRELY...THEY WILL BE LOWER HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

BY FRIDAY...THE NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SWRD ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL SEND OUR RAIN CHANCES
HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF BY A
FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION.
EXPECT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER TO RETURN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH LESSER CHANCES
FOR ISOLD AFTERNOON CONVECTION. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  74  91  74 /  20  30  40  20
MLU  92  73  91  74 /  20  30  40  20
DEQ  92  71  92  73 /  20  30  30  20
TXK  92  73  91  74 /  20  30  40  20
ELD  92  73  91  73 /  20  30  40  20
TYR  92  74  90  74 /  20  20  30  10
GGG  92  74  91  74 /  20  20  30  10
LFK  91  74  90  74 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15



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