Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 231550
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
950 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE AGAIN THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR TORNADO
WATCH #560 THAT TAKES IN GRANT...LA SALLE AND CALDWELL PARISHES IN
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT AS OF 15Z WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED PARISHES AND CONTINUES TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DOES SHOW SOME LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WITH MORE THAN
AMPLE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. CONVECTION NORTH AND WEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS ELEVATED AND OTHER THAN A SMALL HAIL THREAT...DOES NOT
POSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE AND WCN HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH HAD MOVED
THROUGH ALL BUT OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST PARISHES AS OF 14Z THIS
MORNING. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE
850MB FRONT WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF A LFK TO
ELD LINE. UPDATED FCST TO INCLUDE TSRA MENTION ALONG AND SE OF
THIS LINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ALSO BASED ON RAW HRRR
INPUT...HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BLEED SOUTH AND EAST IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE FCST LOOKS GOOD OF NEAR
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. LIGHT AND OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE DAY.

ALL OTHER GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AM EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS. ALONG AND TO
THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAILED WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND INTO EAST AND DEEP EAST TEXAS. MOSTLY VFR
PREVAILED FOR THE REST OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PROVIDING
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3 KFT. AS THE RAIN
AREA CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THERE WILL BE A LOWERING OF THE
CLOUDS TO MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 6
STATUTE MILES DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS IN PART TO
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION OVERNIGHT PROVIDING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR. HOWEVER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD BACK
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE LATE MORNING AND MID DAY
HOURS WEDNESDAY RETURNING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
OF 5-12 KNOTS WILL OCCUR FOR ALL BUT PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND LOWER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
ONCE THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO MISSISSIPPI AND MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA THE WINDS WILL BE MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8-15
KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SRN IA THIS MORNING CONTINUES
TO WRAP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. VORT
DIGGING SEWD AROUND THE SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ALREADY GENERATING
A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF TX. THIS IS FCST TO CONTINUE
EXPANDING EWD TODAY AS THE TROF DEEPENS AND FORCES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION. HAVE INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT FOR TODAY AS A
RESULT. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR US TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AND WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY ALONG AND N OF I-30
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPS WON`T LAST LONG. PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WILL QUICKLY WHISK THE UPPER TROF EWD AND LEAVE OUR
REGION UNDER WEAK RIDGING FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WHICH WILL BRING OUR
TEMPS BACK UP ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. ALL IN ALL... SHOULD BE A
NICE DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

BY THURSDAY EVENING...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PD...AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVE OVHD. CONSEQUENTLY...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CREEP BACK INTO
THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO AT OR
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  38  50  33  58 /  60  40  10   0   0
MLU  60  40  51  32  56 /  80  50  10   0   0
DEQ  50  34  48  27  56 /  60  30  20   0   0
TXK  51  36  47  32  55 /  60  30  10   0   0
ELD  52  38  48  30  56 /  60  50  10   0   0
TYR  51  37  48  33  59 /  60  10  10   0   0
GGG  52  36  50  31  59 /  60  20  10   0   0
LFK  56  37  52  32  60 /  60  20  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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