Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 270101
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
801 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.AVIATION...

EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES UNTIL AFTER 27/07-08Z FOR THE
TERMINAL SITES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...THEN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
20-30 KNOT BOUNDARY LATER WINDS AND LLJ WILL RETURN GULF MOISTURE
PROVIDING MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND BR/FG...FIRST ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND LASTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE
CEILINGS/SENSIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT DURING
MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT
SOUTH OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...TO SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SOUTHERLY SPEEDS
INCREASING AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NOW ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA AND SHOULD
EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD
BRING IN A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SWRN
CONUS PER LATEST WV LOOPS. AT THE SFC...LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY AND THE INCREASING SLY LOW LVL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NWD. THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG TO THE AREA TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS/FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AREAWIDE. SLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGER MONDAY AS THE LEE SFC
TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. WIND SPEEDS MAY FLIRT WITH LAKE
WIND CRITERIA ACROSS SE OK/PORTIONS OF E TX AND THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.

LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS TUESDAY WHICH
BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER SLOW
MOVING AND MAY TAKE THE BETTER PART OF 24 HRS TO COMPLETELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
ALMOST ALL OF THE QPF POST-FRONTAL. THEREFORE...SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE MINIMAL. TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST REGARDING THE
ONSET/DURATION OF PRECIP WITH THE NAM STILL BEING THE SLOWEST AND
DRIEST OF THE VARIOUS MODELS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY SRN AR/NRN
LA...COULD SEE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR ONE INCH BEFORE
PRECIP EXITS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A SECOND FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES TO FCST RAIN ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS WITH THIS SECOND FRONT/UPPER TROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A
COUPLE OF SHWRS BUT FEEL THESE CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY LOW AS THERE
REALLY WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURN
IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONT. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST
BEYOND 00Z THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN
STORY GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A PIECE OF COLD CANADIAN AIR
DISLODGES AND MOVES SWD INTO THE CONUS. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  85  64  81  61 /   0  10  10  30  40
MLU  57  87  64  82  61 /   0  10  10  30  40
DEQ  57  82  61  75  54 /   0  10  30  40  30
TXK  60  84  64  78  56 /   0  10  20  40  40
ELD  57  85  63  77  58 /   0  10  10  40  40
TYR  62  85  65  80  61 /   0  10  10  30  30
GGG  62  85  64  81  60 /   0  10  10  30  40
LFK  60  86  65  83  63 /   0  10  10  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




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