Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 251115
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
615 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAN HANDLE OF
TEXAS AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND THE GULF COAST STATES WERE
SUPPLYING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN CHANCES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
SINCE NO SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER SEEMS TO BE IN THE OFFERING FOR
TODAY INTO TUESDAY. ALOFT THERE WAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF BUT THIS FEATURE SHOULD NOT HELP PRODUCE
CONVECTION...AND ONLY LEFT IN SOME AFTERNOON SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PARTS OF LOUISIANA...DEEP EAST TEXAS...AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ALSO KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR TUESDAY WITH RISING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY AND SMALL AND WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
TO JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AND ACROSS COLORADO BY LATE IN THE DAY...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A DRY LINE DROPPING SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS AND A COLD FRONT IN ITS WAKE...AND A WARM FRONT/STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR THE FOUR
STATE REGION HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES ALONG AND NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND FOR MUCH OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND AREA WIDE FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND APPROACH OF THE TRAILING DRY LINE AND
COLD FRONT MAY SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE
FOR MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND DURING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. WITH THE ENERGY FROM THE
UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO THE UPPER MID WEST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY PROVIDING ANOTHERROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST AND MOVING
TOWARD THE FOUR STATE REGION KEEPING RAIN ONGOING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING SUNDAY. HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT BUMPING UP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FOR TUESDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF CWA ATTM. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS
QUICKLY MOVG INTO NE TX IN STG LOW LVL SW FLOW. LEADING EDGE OF
THIS LOW CLOUD DECK JUST ENTERING KTYR AND KLFK...AND WILL REACH
KSHV AND POSSIBLY KTXK BY AROUND 06Z...AND KMLU AND KELD AFTER
AROUND 09Z. SOUTH WINDS AT LEAST 5 KTS WILL MINIMIZE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. EXPECTING VFR SKIES ONCE AGAIN AFTER
25/15Z...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS. THESE WINDS
WILL PERSIST BEYOND 26/00Z...WITH LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN ENTERING
NE TX BEFORE THE 26/06Z END OF THE FCST CYCLE./VII/.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  68  85  69 /  20  10  20  40
MLU  84  66  85  68 /  20  10  20  20
DEQ  81  66  82  65 /  10  20  20  70
TXK  83  67  84  67 /  10  20  20  60
ELD  83  66  85  68 /  20  10  20  30
TYR  85  69  84  67 /  10  10  20  60
GGG  85  69  85  68 /  10  10  20  60
LFK  84  70  86  70 /  20  10  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/07



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