Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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624
FXUS64 KSHV 220313
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1013 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Much of the isolated convection has finally diminished as of mid-
evening, but a considerable amount of convective debris remains
over Nrn/Cntrl/NE LA as well as much of Cntrl/Srn MS from the
earlier convection. Meanwhile, the evening water vapor imagery
depicts a weak but broad upper low over the NE Gulf, which should
continue to slowly retrograde W along the Gulf Coast into Srn LA
through Saturday. Still can/t rule out very isolated convection
redeveloping late tonight mainly over NE LA which may migrate W
into the SE sections of Ncntrl LA NW of the Gulf Coast low. Have
maintained slight chance pops for these areas overnight and
dropped mention of pops elsewhere as the air mass continues to
stabilize.

Given the presence of the considerable AC/cirrus shield spreading
W, this should help to keep min temps up overnight, mainly over N
LA. Otherwise, temps elsewhere are nearly identical to what was
observed 24 hours ago, with temps not falling much more but into
the mid/upper 70s. Given still some uncertainty in regards to
cloud cover/convection coverage which may affect portions of SW
AR/N LA Saturday NNW of the Gulf Coast low, will not be making any
changes to the current Heat Advisory, although given the very warm
start expected to start the morning Saturday, would not be
surprised if the Advisory is expanded to encompass more of these
areas Saturday as criteria may be reached again even before
the onset of convection.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 22/00z TAFs, isolated convection continues across the Four
State Region, mainly south of the Interstate 30 corridor. Radar
trends over the last hour or two already indicate that convective
coverage is quickly diminishing, although there a couple of
stronger storms that may persist for another couple of hours over
Northern and Western Louisiana. Otherwise, VFR conditions and
light winds should prevail for the duration of the TAF period.
Another round of isolated convection is likely during the daytime
hours of Saturday, but the expected spotty coverage will preclude
any mention in the TAFs at this time.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  95  77  93 /  10  30  20  40
MLU  77  94  77  91 /  10  30  20  40
DEQ  74  96  74  94 /  10  10  10  30
TXK  77  95  76  91 /  10  20  20  30
ELD  76  94  75  90 /  10  20  20  40
TYR  77  95  76  93 /   0  10  10  40
GGG  77  95  77  93 /   0  20  20  40
LFK  76  94  75  93 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059-070.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ001-002-010-017.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15



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