Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 271849
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
149 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016


.AVIATION...
For the 27/18Z terminals expecting mostly VFR flight categories
outside of the influence of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms, and on Tuesday, as well as during the early
morning hours on Tuesday, when MVFR ceilings and visibilities
will be possible between 28/09Z-28/14Z. Upper ridge of high
pressure has shifted West and weakened and surface high pressure
has also weakened over the Four State Region allowing for light
and variable winds to light West or Northwest winds of less than
8 knots. Outflow boundaries from previous convection will initiate
additional development this afternoon and on Tuesday. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1148 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Gradually weakening influence of the upper ridge continues over
the region late this morning, and this trend should lend itself to
more diurnal convection this afternoon and on through Tuesday with
a weak frontal boundary advancing south into the area. However, do
not expect any relief from the heat quite yet as compressional
warming ahead of the front will send temperatures back into the
mid 90s for almost all the region today. With that in mind, have
raised afternoon highs across the board by roughly a degree or two
based on trends so far and previous day readings. Also lowered
pops as it appears better rain chances will hold off until later
this evening as the front draws closer. Any storms that do develop
could become strong and cannot rule out an isolated severe storm
with damaging wind gusts being the threat of concern. The strong
surface heating today will provide for an increasingly unstable
atmosphere as much of the region has been placed in a marginal
risk area, mainly for any storms that develop late this afternoon
and through the evening. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast
is on track. Updated text products have already been sent. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  77  91  75 /  30  30  50  20
MLU  95  76  89  74 /  30  40  60  20
DEQ  93  74  92  70 /  40  40  30  10
TXK  94  75  92  72 /  30  40  40  10
ELD  94  74  91  71 /  40  40  50  10
TYR  95  76  92  76 /  20  20  50  20
GGG  94  75  90  75 /  20  20  50  20
LFK  94  75  91  75 /  30  20  60  40

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/19



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