Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 141815
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
115 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 14/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS NOW PREVAILING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AT MOST ARKLATEX TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR TYR/MLU WHERE
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE. EXPECT THESE TWO SITES TO ALSO
GO VFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER MIXES
OUT. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE LEFTOVER STRATUS ERODES
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE E/NE AND BE NEAR
CALM AFTER SUNSET...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AT ELD/MLU
AND POSSIBLY LFK AS WELL ON MONDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE SUCKER HOLE OVER NW LA/EXTREME E TX HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND
AS MIXING HAS COMMENCED THIS MORNING...WITH THE SHORT TERM PROGS
INITIALIZING POORLY ON THIS STRATUS SHIELD. THE 12Z KSHV RAOB
MAINTAINS A STRONG INVERSION BEWTEEN 950-900MB...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED JUST 24 HOURS AGO. GIVEN THE
ONGOING MIXING...BELIEVE THAT THE STRATOCU SHIELD OVER E TX SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM NW TO SE ALONG THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IN
PLACE...WITH THE LOWER STRATUS FARTHER E ACROSS SE AR/NCNTRL LA
AND LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY EXPECTED TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO
LIFT...PERHAPS INTO THE MID OR LATE AFTERNOON HOURS GIVEN THE
STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE.

HAVE LOWERED FORECAST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SCNTRL
AR/NCNTRL LA GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE LOW STRATUS HANGING TOUGH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO BUMPED MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES AS WELL OVER THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...BUT RAISED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS OF EXTREME NW LA/ADJACENT E TX. A
SCT CU FIELD SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORM BY AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF
THESE CLOUD FREE AREAS.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  67  90  69  88 /   0  10  20  20  30
MLU  77  65  88  67  88 /   0  10  20  20  30
DEQ  78  62  83  64  85 /   0  10  30  30  30
TXK  79  63  83  66  87 /   0  10  20  20  30
ELD  78  62  84  66  87 /   0  10  20  20  30
TYR  79  68  88  71  88 /   0  10  20  20  30
GGG  80  66  88  69  88 /   0  10  20  20  30
LFK  82  69  92  72  88 /   0  10  20  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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