Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 211623
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRATOCU DECK SHIFTING SWRD THIS MORNING FROM S AR/SE OK HAS
GRADUALLY BEGUN TO ERODE AND SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH INTO THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/N LA. THE CLOUDS HAVE HAMPERED TEMPERATURE
RISE OVER PARTS OF N CNTRL/NE LA SO HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
DEW POINTS AND SKY COVER TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 21/12Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CIGS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5
KFT...MAINLY OVER N LA...S AR...AND NE TX WHICH WILL BECOME
SCATTERED MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. SOME PATCHY VSBYS BETWEEN 3 AND
5 MI IN FOG/HAZE TIL 14Z THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 22/09Z.
/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA.
/VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  80  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  78  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





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