Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 200017
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
717 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING 00Z TAF PD.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THIS SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT
AND VRBL WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN
THE DAY HAS JUST ABOUT WASHED OUT AND CAN NOT BE CLEARLY NOTICED
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUED TO PROVIDE DRY AIR IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WITH MAINLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT WITH
CUMULUS JUST ABOUT AREA WIDE. OFF THE GULF COAST OF THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REACHED NORTHWEST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE
LOWER TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS REGION INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
BETWEEN THE BIG BEND AND WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. MOISTURE ALONG
AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE RESULTED
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER DISTURBANCES ALOFT ASSISTED.
MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD ALSO DEVELOPED OVER
THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH LOSS OF THE
AFTERNOON HEATING INTO THE EVENING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL DISSIPATE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND WEST INTO THE FOUR STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT ALSO OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM RECENT REMNANTS OF
A HURRICANE THAT MOVED INTO MEXICO AND INTO THE PLAINS...AND THE
NEXT HURRICANE OFF THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST WILL KEEP A STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVING INLAND. THIS MOISTURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND INTO THE ROCKIES AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES AND AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER MEXICO AND INTO THE ROCKIES. KEPT SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR SATURDAY FOR A SMALL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND WILL BE PICKING UP
SOME OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LAST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK AS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH AND TO THE FACT THAT WE REMAIN UNDER
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH TEXAS
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. SHOULD SEE MORE
FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
FOR LATE WEEK. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  92  69  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  20
MLU  68  92  67  92  68 /  10  10  10  10  20
DEQ  67  89  67  90  64 /   0  10  10  20  20
TXK  68  90  69  91  67 /   0  10  10  20  20
ELD  67  91  67  91  66 /   0  10  10  20  20
TYR  69  90  70  92  69 /  20  10  10  10  20
GGG  69  91  69  92  69 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  70  91  70  92  69 /  20  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




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