Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 220915
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
415 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows an omega block over the US...with a
trough along each coast and a ridge over the central part of the
US. The ridge axis remains to our west over Texas and Oklahoma
this morning...with a shear axis over southern Louisiana. The
models are showing this axis lifting back north later this
morning...which may bring a few showers and thunderstorms to our
southwestern counties and parishes today. A marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms over these southwestern counties is
possible today...but confidence is low as to whether or not these
areas will see any severe weather...as the greatest risk area
remains well to our east. If an isolated severe thunderstorm did
develop...then believe the primary threats would be strong winds
and hail. Otherwise...expect dry conditions to prevail across most
of the area...with temperatures warming back into the mid
80s...but maybe a degree or two cooler given the high clouds
spreading across the area.

The ridge axis will gradually shift eastward over the next 36 to
72 hours...as the west coast trough elongates with a series of
disturbances. As a result...the threat of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day across the region...but
think the more organize convection will really remain to our
west...with the greatest instability. That being said...a marginal
risk of severe thunderstorms is possible for both Monday and
Tuesday over the western half of the county warning area. This
will likely continue into Wednesday as well. However...stronger
disturbance will move into the Southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday...bringing a better chance of showers and thunderstorms to
the ArkLaTex. In fact...think that the severe threat will be more
likely these days...or at least late Thursday night into
Friday if the timing holds...as a cold front moves into the
region. This coincides with SPC`s severe weather outlook for days
five and six. Another disturbance will then take aim at the region
for Saturday...more the threat of showers and thunderstorms
continuing into the weekend. Palmer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1206 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex,VFR now with some MVFR stratus 1.5-2.5kft around
daybreak along with some hit or miss light BR. On the sfc we have
some calm or a light E/NE winds 5kts which extends up a few
thousand feet before swinging around to SW/W for climb with winds
15-45KTS from 5kft to 30kft. A chamber of Commerce day of rest
coming. Our winds tomorrow will be E/SE 5-10KTS on the sfc and
deepening SE flow aloft up into the midlevels by 21Z. A nearby
shear axis could touch off some p.m. Isold TSTMS at TX terminals.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  65  86  70 /  10  10  20  20
MLU  83  62  85  67 /  10  10  20  20
DEQ  82  62  82  67 /  10  20  30  20
TXK  82  63  83  68 /  10  10  20  20
ELD  82  60  84  66 /  10  10  20  20
TYR  84  68  85  71 /  30  20  30  20
GGG  84  67  84  69 /  20  10  30  20
LFK  84  68  85  70 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

28/24



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