Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 260431
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1131 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAF FORECAST...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER
THROUGH 17Z. EXCEPTION MAY BE PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN
10Z AND 14Z DUE TO FOG AND HAZE. AFTER 17Z...SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT WILL FAVOR AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
10 KTS OR LESS. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...BUT STILL
ACTIVE ATTM. HAVE LEFT IN ISOLD POPS...ALONG WITH A SMALL SLIVER
OF 30 POPS...THRU MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT...AS
CONVECTION AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHRINK TOWARDS COAST OVERNIGHT
IN TROPICAL LIKE EASTERLY LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 70S
APPEAR ON TRACK./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...HEATING TIED TO A DISTURBANCE OFF THE SE LA COAST
AND A WEAKNESS NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THIS DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST
WEST OF THE MISS RIVER INTO NE/EC LA. STEERING FLOW IS FROM EAST
TO WEST BELOW THE CENTER OF A MASSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAD SHIFTED NORTH OF OUR REGION. MODELS HAVE THIS WAVE HANDLED
PRETTY WELL WITH THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE MOVING GENERALLY WEST
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE
DECISION ON HOW TO HANDLE POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS BUT WILL NEED TO AT LEAST GO WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC/NE LA. WILL TAPER POPS DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT AS WAS THE CASE LAST
NIGHT...SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH WITH A BULK OF THIS
LIKELY BEING WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOWED THE ECMWF HEAVILY FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WHICH SUGGEST LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
SW THIRD AS THIS WILL BE THE REGION CLOSEST IN PROXIMITY TO THE
TUTT LOW TO OUR SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL GET ENTRAINED INTO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AND A REMNANT SHEAR AXIS WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WARRANTED FOR MOST OF OUR REGION IN THE
WED/THU TIMEFRAME. THE RIDGE SHOULD BECOME POSITIONED ACROSS THE
SE U.S FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
GULF TO BECOME WIDE OPEN FOR STRONG RETURNING MOISTURE AND WHEN
YOU COMBINE THIS MOISTURE WITH THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE REMNANT
SHEAR AXIS AND PVA FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH...THEN WE SHOULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
PROGS PRECLUDE US FROM GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS FOR
SAT/SUN ATTM...BUT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A WET BEGINNING TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR SOME LOCATIONS IF THIS PATTERN HOLDS OUT.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  95  75  95  74 /  10  20  20  20  10
MLU  72  94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10  20  10
DEQ  72  94  72  95  70 /  10  20  10  20  10
TXK  74  93  73  94  72 /  10  20  10  20  10
ELD  72  94  69  94  70 /  10  20  10  20  10
TYR  75  94  74  95  74 /  10  20  20  20  10
GGG  75  94  74  95  73 /  10  20  20  20  10
LFK  76  93  74  95  74 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






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