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000
FXUS64 KSHV 120236
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
936 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AT 0230Z...SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS JUST APPROACHING THE I-35
CORRIDOR. CONVECTION THAT HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER IN
THE DAY HAS DISSIPATED AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED THIS
EVENING. FRONT IS STILL EVIDENT ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY BY A LINE OF
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA SO THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

OVERALL...FCST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE TO SKY...WIND...AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 13/06 UTC. PRIMARY COLD FRONT
HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AWAY FROM THE
REGION. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN IN THE FRONTS WAKE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING SURFACE WINDS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 6 TO 12 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH.
THESE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST AND EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AFTER 13/00 UTC THE SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST. AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND THE
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WILL PROVIDE
A BAND OF SCATTERED CLOUDS RANGING FROM AROUND 5 KFT TO 9 KFT
BETWEEN 12/06 UTC TO 12/14 UTC. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE FOUR STATE REGION IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO DISTINCT COLD
FRONTS AS OF MID AFTERNOON...THE SRN MOST BNDRY HAVING ALL BUT
CLEARED THE CWA TO THE SOUTH WITH SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION FINALLY
INITIATING IN THE FAR SE CORNER OF GRANT AND LA SALLE PARISHES.
WITH THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHIFTING SOUTH...FOCUS
TURNS TO THE FRONT LOCATED NORTH ACROSS NRN AR BACK INTO CNTRL OK.
CONVECTION IS FAIRLY MINIMAL ALONG THIS BNDRY WHICH EXTENDS ALONG
A FYV...TUL...OKC LINE. ENHANCED LINE OF CU IS APPARENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE ALONG THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED DEWPOINT
GRADIENT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FRONT. THIS SECONDARY FRONT WILL
CONTINUE A STEADY SEWRD PROGRESSION INTO OUR REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...CONVECTION LOOKS
TO BE UNLIKELY BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES AS DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BE ENDING IN ADDITION TO THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS FRONT. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE
EVENING FORECAST.

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE A NICE REPRIEVE FROM THE MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED EARLIER IN THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION
ON SUNDAY AND DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DEWPOINTS
TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY AND BACK INTO THE
80S BY MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SNEAKS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTER THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN SLY
FLOW GETS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH BUT STAY NORTH OF THE REGION INTO MID WEEK AND AN UPPER LOW
WILL TRANSITION ACROSS NRN MEXICO ACROSS TX/OK...PROVIDING THE
NEEDED LIFT FOR ISOLATED SHWRS AND TSTMS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND STEADILY
THROUGH THE WEEK BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER THE BRIEF COOL DOWN
THIS WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  76  49  82  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  54  74  47  80  55 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  46  75  43  81  52 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  51  74  49  80  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  50  73  45  79  54 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  54  77  51  82  59 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  53  76  49  82  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  56  80  49  84  57 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/06