Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 180551 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF -SHRA CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENE ACROSS NW LA/SW AR/EXTREME
ERN TX...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCT -SHRA FARTHER W OVER SE OK/N TX
EXPECTED TO SHIFT E INTO NE TX OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...CIGS HAVE
BECOME MVFR...WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NE
TX/SE OK...AND SHOULD SPREAD E INTO EXTREME SW AR/NW LA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...VFR CIGS OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA
SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS WELL...WITH
MVFR/SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 12Z. THE SCT -SHRA SHOULD DIMINISH
FROM W TO E AFTER 12Z...BUT STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY
ACROSS DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA. EVEN WHILE THE -SHRA
DIMINISHES...PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS IN -DZ SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
MIDDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH CIGS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
MUCH /IF AT ALL/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...IFR
CIGS SHOULD EXPAND AREAWIDE...WITH PERIODS OF -DZ POSSIBLE AS WELL
UNTIL SCT -SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOP OVER SE TX/SRN LA AND
EXPAND N ACROSS E TX/N LA JUST AFTER THE END OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. ENE WINDS 4-7KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS/CLOUDS AND ADD ISOLATED THUNDER 12-18Z. ALSO
LOADED NEW NAM WINDS WHICH ARE A BIT MORE NE THAN OBS/FCST EAST.

DISCUSSION...
KSHV 88 D RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HEART OF
THE ARKLATEX WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH. THE WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS LEAD SHORT WAVE IN THE PATTERN OVER KN/OK AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN TOW OFF THE E
PACIFIC. OVERALL...TONIGHT IS HIGH POP LOWER QPF OF TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST COMPARED TO THE SECOND VORT/S TIMING FOR OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH OF FRIDAY ON THE NEW NAM WITH STILL WPC DAY 1-2 SHOWING 1
TO 3 INCH TOTALS BY LATE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING PRETTY MUCH NE SFC
WINDS AND UPDATED WITH NEW 00Z NAM LEANING MORE NE. ALSO HAVE
ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER FOR FIRST HALF OF DAY TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  80  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  80  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  80  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  80  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  80  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  80  60  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




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