Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 170844
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
244 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge axis stretched from nrn Mexico newd into the Great
Lakes region this morning. Thursday`s stalled frontal boundary has
moved nwd out of our region as a warm front, leaving us under an
unseasonably warm and moist airmass. Upper trof across the Pac
NW will continue to push ewd today and into the central Plains
overnight tonight, driving a cold front sewd into the srn Plains.
Lee-side sfc low to develop and deepen today ahead of the upper
trof, creating a sharp pressure gradient across much of the srn
Plains/Lower MS Valley today. As a result, gusty swly winds will
overtake wrn portions of our region by midday today. Winds will
pick up across much of the region after fropa. That said, have
extended the ongoing Lake Wind Advisory through the overnight
hours and added most of the remaining counties and parishes after
daybreak Saturday. Models continue to indicate very little QPF
with this system, so have continued with only slight chance and
low chance PoPs. Although the wind fields associated with the trof
will be quite impressive, little to no instability will be
available for tstms, much less strong tstms. With regard to temps
Saturday, the battle between compressional/diurnal heating and the
CAA behind the front will make for an interesting scenario that
will likely result in very warm temps near 80 for the srn half of
the region and significantly cooler temps in the 60s across the n.

The cooler/drier airmass in the wake of the front will force our
temps back down to near and below seasonal normals through the
first half of next week. Another trof Tuesday will cut off over
the nrn Gulf and bring some additional chances for shwrs and
another shot of cooler air to carry us through the end of the fcst
pd. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1135 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/

AVIATION...
Southerly flow of moisture combined with an enhanced pressure
gradient will allow for potential MVFR ceilings across area
terminals overnight, especially near daybreak. South winds to
increase to around 10 to 15 knots shortly after daybreak and 15 to
20 knots with higher gusts during the afternoon. Ceilings to lift
across most terminal sites during the afternoon but could become
MVFR again after 18/03Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  67  77  42 /  10  10  20   0
MLU  78  66  77  42 /   0  10  30   0
DEQ  75  65  69  35 /  20  10  20   0
TXK  78  66  71  38 /  10  10  20   0
ELD  77  65  74  38 /  10  10  30   0
TYR  80  67  72  40 /  10  10  20   0
GGG  80  67  74  39 /  10  10  20   0
LFK  81  67  80  42 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for LAZ001>006-
     010>013.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST Saturday
     for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for TXZ097-112-
     126-138-151>153.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST Saturday
     for TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

12/05


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