Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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432
FXUS64 KSHV 241647
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1147 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A complex forecast is the best way to describe today`s weather
situation as remnant convection from overnight/early morning is
still ongoing south of I-20 across deep east Texas across Toledo
Bend into parts of north central Louisiana. Meanwhile, farther
north the atmosphere is still somewhat worked over from earlier
convection. The question is how much will these areas recover this
afternoon and with the extensive cloud cover still in place late
this morning. Current thinking is convection will not be quite as
widespread as initially thought with less instability along and
north of I-20. However, abundant moisture remains in place and
gradual heating through the remainder of today coupled with the
upper level weakness still hanging around should allow for some
scattered convection to develop over our northern sections. So
have generally framed the pop forecast to reflect lower pops to
the north and slightly higher south. Thus, high temperatures have
also been tweaked to generally lower forecast highs a degree or
two in most locations but generally expects highs to reach either
side of 90 degrees. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is on
track and no other changes are needed at this time.

/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 758 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 24/12Z terminal forecast will be prevailing a mix of
MVFR and VFR for most sites, however along the Western end of
an upper level trough of low pressure extending across the
Four State Region and a surface trough of low pressure over
Northern Louisiana lower ceilings producing IFR flight categories.
This morning outflow boundaries from North Texas storms early
overnight spread Southeast into East and Northeast Texas and
into Northwest Louisiana produce scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms that have spread Southeast and cover much of
Deep East Texas and lower Northwest and parts of North Central
Louisiana. Majority of the thunderstorms this morning will affect
KLFK with VCSH or VCTS for remaining sites across the region.
VFR flight categories will return during the mid to late morning
where lower categories occur. Winds will be light and variable
and becoming South to Southwest 5-10 knots. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  75  94  75 /  50  30  20  10
MLU  89  75  93  74 /  50  30  30  10
DEQ  91  73  93  73 /  40  30  20  10
TXK  91  74  93  74 /  50  30  20  10
ELD  90  74  94  73 /  50  30  20  10
TYR  90  75  94  75 /  50  30  20  10
GGG  89  74  94  74 /  50  30  20  10
LFK  90  75  94  74 /  70  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/06



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