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000
FXUS64 KSHV 160314
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1014 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO SRN AR/NE LA THIS
EVENING. LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ROUND IS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA FROM NEAR KMLC TO KTPL. STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO SVR
ACROSS N TX THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. INSTABILITY IS MUCH LOWER ACROSS OUR AREA COMPARED TO
FARTHER WEST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THUS...LATEST THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA
BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING.

UPDATED POP GRIDS AND EXPANDED LIKELY POPS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE AFFECTED WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION RAPIDLY ENDING ACROSS OUR SW ZONES ATTM. NARROW LINE OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES HOWEVER FROM NEAR HUGO OKLAHOMA SSE TO JUST
EAST OF THE SHV TERMINAL. WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR SLOWLY MOVING EAST ATTM BUT A MUCH MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE EXISTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...THE THINKING IS THAT
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES
EAST. WILL KEEP VCTS GOING IN OUR WESTERN MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT JUST IN CASE. CEILINGS ARE MOSTLY VFR
AS OF 02Z THIS EVENING WITH SOME REPORTING STATIONS OUTSIDE TERMINAL
AREAS SEEING MVFR CEILINGS. FEEL LIKE LATER TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE
A RETURN TO AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS SOME IFR CONDITIONS.

THESE CONDITIONS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY BEFORE WE SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

/13/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN NEWRD FROM NORTH TX INTO SW OK THIS
AFTERNOON...HAVING DEEPENED SLIGHTLY WITH CLOSED CIRCULATION NOTED
ONCE AGAIN. THIS HAS GENERATED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS FROM
NRN TX INTO SRN OK WITH LESSER COVERAGE ACROSS AREAS OF NE TX.
INSTABILITY REMAINS MUCH HIGHER ACROSS THESE AREAS WEST OF OUR
FOUR-STATE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR. FOR THE MOST PART...SHWRS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
HAVE BEEN SEEN ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OUR REGION TODAY WITH A FEW
ISOLD TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR WRN PORTIONS OF
NE TX. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER POPS
SHIFTING FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR...MAINTAINED LIKELY
POPS OVER THESE AREAS AND TAPERED BACK TO CHANCE POPS FARTHER
SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.

UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE E/NE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY WELL TO OUR NORTH...THUS
KEEPING THE LOW JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO HELP INITIATE ISOLD CONVECTION POSSIBLY THROUGH
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT HEATING EXPECTED. BY EARLY SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST TASTE OF THE DREADED 90S WHICH MOST AREAS
HAVE SO FAR BEEN SPARED THIS SPRING.

IN THE EXTENDED...COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS SLOW TO ARRIVE INTO THE
REGION BY EARLY TO MID WEEK. MAINTAINED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASING POPS BUT WILL
TAKE A FEW MORE DAYS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND
LIKELIHOOD OF THE FRONT ADVANCING COMPLETELY THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THEN...EXPECT MORNING
LOWS MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER IN ADDITION TO NEAR 90 DEGREE HEAT.
/19/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS BETWEEN 3 AND 5
KFT AND 8 TO 10 KFT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL VSBYS 3 TO 5 MILES IN FOG
EXPECTED. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BRING SOME FLIGHT HAZARDS TO THE
AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS VICINITY OF TSTMS AS WELL
AS MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY ON THURSDAY...WITH CIGS MOST
LOCATIONS BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SURFACE WIND FOR AREA TERMINALS WILL BE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  81  68  85  70 /  60  30  10  10  10
MLU  61  82  67  84  69 /  40  30  20  20  10
DEQ  62  76  64  82  66 /  60  40  20  20  10
TXK  63  78  67  83  69 /  60  40  20  20  10
ELD  61  80  65  83  67 /  60  40  20  20  10
TYR  65  82  69  86  70 /  60  20  10  10  10
GGG  64  82  68  86  70 /  60  20  10  10  10
LFK  65  85  70  88  71 /  50  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/09/13