Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 161055
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
455 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Active weather pattern is in full swing this week with our first
round of convection making its way into our western and northern
zones this morning ahead of a cold front, which is oriented along
the I-35 corridor of north TX as of 10Z. Meanwhile, warm front has
shifted just north of our CWA with southeast winds now observed at
all sites. Looking aloft, the upper trough is quickly pivoting
northeast across the Red River Valley with the associated closed
low now shifting into southern Kansas. So although the broad area
of showers and thunderstorms still continues to slowly expand this
morning, expect some dry slotting to occur later today across our
northwest zones with heavier rainfall shifting farther south and
east with the approaching cold front. The front is still progged
to slow its eastward progression so our extreme east and southeast
zones should remain mostly rain-free through at least the first
half of today before gradual eastward expansion allows these areas
to fill in as well. Severe potential remains very low as the upper
dynamics are shifting away from our region with the ejecting low
over the Plains, but certainly could see scattered thunderstorms
closer to the front today through tonight as higher pops shift
across our southeast half with the advancing frontal boundary.

By this time Tuesday morning, the front will still be across our
southeast sections as it begins to stall out later in the morning
through the afternoon. This will allow showers and thunderstorms
to continue over much of the region Tuesday night into Wednesday
as deep SW flow aloft keeps the band of Pacific moisture training
right over the region along the stalled boundary. Meanwhile, the
the persistent upper trough to our southwest responsible for this
SW flow will finally begin to lift across northern Mexico over the
Southern Plains late Wednesday into Thursday and provide another
round of convection Wednesday night through much of Thursday. The
upper trough will lift on out of the region Thursday night through
Friday and finally provide a much anticipated break from the rain.

Looking toward the weekend, the dry period on Friday looks to be
short-lived as another trough out west approaches the region on
Saturday with increasing rain chances through the day Saturday and
early Sunday. Behind this trough, another Pacific cold front will
follow and usher in some noticeably cooler and drier air to end
next weekend.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  54  60  52 /  80  70  70  60
MLU  75  62  66  55 /  40  60  70  60
DEQ  67  43  58  43 /  80  20  20  40
TXK  69  48  59  47 /  90  60  30  60
ELD  70  54  60  49 /  60  70  70  60
TYR  69  49  59  49 /  80  40  30  60
GGG  71  51  60  50 /  90  60  40  60
LFK  76  58  61  55 /  80  70  70  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19


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