Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 261949
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
149 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...

EXPECTING MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE FOUR STATE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE TERMAINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT
27/18Z...WITH A A LIFTING TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING GENEARLLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS/MVFR
WILL RETURN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH 5-10 KNOTS AND INCREASING IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT TO 12-17 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DROPPING OFF AFTER
27/00Z TO 4-7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR
DAYBREAK AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AROUND 27/13Z-27/14Z FRIDAY./06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...ALONG A EL DORADO
ARKANSAS TO LUFKIN TEXAS LINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL
FOLLOW...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP ATTM...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF WITH ANOTHER COLD...
MUCH BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED AREA WIDE.

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST ATTM. TEXT ZONES SENT TO GET RID OF MORNING
WORDING.  /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOME CONCERNS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG DUE TO SNOW
PACK AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. HAVE HANDLED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS
SHORT OF ISSUING A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FREEZING FOG CONCERNS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

1046MB HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC
AIR TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF AGAIN DUE TO THE SNOW
PACK AND STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 500MB
FLOW IS WSW AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SLIGHT LIFT
OVERSPREADING OUR NW ZONES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THICKNESSES SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS
SETUP ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A TYLER...TEXARKANA...PRESCOTT LINE
SO HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE GRIDS AS WELL. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS INCREASED LIFT AND FORCING WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES BEGIN TO WARM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COME
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NE TX BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IF ANY ATTM.

THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS S CA SUNDAY AND
INTO THE BAJA REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WARRANTED FOR SAT
NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CONUS WILL FILL RAPIDLY AS IT EJECT
OUT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURN AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS NOT UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT WE SEE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY TAKING ALL THE
RAIN OUT OF THE REGION.

FINALLY...OUR OFFICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL OUR LOCAL MEDIA
PARTNERS AS WELL AS OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COMMUNITY FOR A JOB
WELL DONE THIS WEEK COVERING TWO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  25  39  28  50 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  40  25  38  26  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  34  19  32  24  39 /  10  10  20  20  20
TXK  36  23  34  25  43 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  38  23  35  25  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  38  24  37  29  43 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  40  24  38  28  47 /  10  10  10  10  20
LFK  47  31  44  32  56 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




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