Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 011717
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1217 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 01/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS AFTER 02/06Z...
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
DIMINISHING TO LESS 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP SOUTH FLOW HAS BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF AREA...AND
WIDELY SCT CONVECTION JUST MOVG ONSHORE IN SOUTH LA.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER A LITTLE MORE SPARSE THAN
YESTERDAY...SO ONGOING CONVECTION MAY DIMINISH BY TIME IT REACHES
I-20. WILL LEAVE ISOLD POPS AS IS...AND GIVEN AROUND A 10 DEGREE
RISE IN TEMPS FROM 10 AM READINGS...AFTN HIGHS IN LOWER TO MID 90S
CAN BE EXPECTED. NO UPDATE ATTM./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






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