Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 252250
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
550 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Update to increase PoPs across our E TX/Deep E TX counties.
Convection continues to spread nwd and 30 and 40 PoPs seem a bit
low considering the coverages across these areas attm. Products
out shortly. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A broad upper trough continues to move along the US/Canada border
in the Northern Plains while a southern stream low has cut off
over Northwest Mexico. To the east, an upper ridge is over the
eastern half of the country with a weak mid-level ridge over the
western tip of the Florida Panhandle. At the surface, a cold front
was located just east of the Interstate 35 corridor in Texas and
extended north-northeast through Eastern Oklahoma and into
Northwest Arkansas and Southwest Missouri. A plume of deep layer
moisture is being drawn northward by the Plains and Mexico
troughs, which has aided in the development of widespread
convection along the cold front. Most of this convection has
remained just west of the CWA today, but will continue to
gradually move into the area as the front approaches. Isolated
diurnal showers and thunderstorms associated with the Florida low
may affect portions of Southern Arkansas and North Central
Louisiana before dissipating by early evening.

Rain chances will continue to increase from northwest to southeast
through Monday morning as the front moves across the area. The
best chances of rain should be overnight tonight and early Monday
morning. Despite the relatively active regional radar loops at
this time, as the best vertical ascent reaches our area,
conditions actually become less conducive for widespread rain. The
Mexico cutoff low will keep most of the moisture over Central
Texas and west of our area. Therefore, storm total rainfall
amounts should be less than one half inch for most locations. The
front should exit the area and rain chances will end late Monday
or very early Tuesday morning as a much drier and cooler airmass
moves into the region.

No additional rain chances are in the forecast beyond Tuesday as a
large upper ridge builds across the Central CONUS. The remainder
of the week will generally be characterized by cool overnight lows
and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s, which is generally
around climo for this time of year. Overnight temperatures will
likely fall into the 50s for much of the area, and possibly into
the upper 40s for a few locations north of Interstate 30. With the
lack of widespread wetting rains expected during the next 36-48
hours, I went a couple degrees above guidance values for daytime
high temperatures as the area should experience mostly clear skies
and abundant sunshine.

Another cold front is expected to move across the area early
Thursday, which will generally hold temperatures steady. No rain
chances are expected as deep layer moisture will be slim to none.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  85  65  83 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  71  87  64  81 /  20  30  10  10
DEQ  67  75  55  80 /  40  20  10   0
TXK  70  80  60  81 /  40  20  10   0
ELD  70  81  59  79 /  30  30  10  10
TYR  70  79  62  82 /  60  20  20  10
GGG  71  82  63  82 /  40  20  20  10
LFK  71  88  67  84 /  50  40  20  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12


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