Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 191230
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
630 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.AVIATION...
For the 19/12Z terminal forecast will prevail VFR flight
categories with ceilings from 4-5 KFT for most locations
and expecting the low level moisture to be trapped underneath an
inversion. During the evening as low level moisture continues
to feed into the Four State Region the ceilings will
lower to MVFR from 15 hnd to 3 KFT affecting the East
and Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas sites of KTYR, KGGG,
KLFK, and KTXK after 20/02Z-20/06Z and into Northwest Louisiana
KSHV after 20/06Z. By this time IFR ceilings around 7 hnd feet
along with patchy mist/BR will be moving in from the West
and lowering flight categories for the late part of the forecast
period. MVFR arriving in the South Central Arkansas and North
Central Louisiana sites of KELD and KMLU after 20/08Z-20/12Z.
Surface winds will be South 7-12 knots today and 5-10 overnight,
then back up to 7-11 knots on Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Overnight lows have remained mostly above frzg, and near frzg
across eastern portions of the area, as cloud decks have slipped
aross the area in deepening sw flow. These clouds will remain
across the area, with high temperatures reaching at least 50
degrees across most of the region. Increased warm air advection
into Friday night with continued clouds will only allow for a few
degree temp drop from day to night. Any precip will be of a
drizzly nature as lowering clouds trapped in low lvl inversion.
Instability increases Saturday with this inversion disappearing,
but with dry airmass above the still shallow layer of low lvl
moisture. Deepening upper trough slower to bring mid lvl moisture
into area Sunday and have lowered pops durg the day, especially in
the mrng hours. However, this will allow for additional daytime
htg with highs reaching lower to middle 70s and tstm development
will ramp up by late aftn and eve. Increased low lvl shear suggest
stg gusty winds in some storms, and storm training which could
bring locally heavy rainfall. Although most of this rain and
storms will move east of the area by Monday mrng, ECMWF deepening
of upper low over east KS/west MO early Monday would suggest that
convection may persist into at least the early part of Monday
across eastern portions of the area. After this system, a dry and
zonal flow will result in mostly sunny skies thru at least
Wednesday if not Thursday, with mild conditions, yet the dry air
bringing lows into the 30s, but mostly above frzg. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  45  67  57 /  10  20  20  20
MLU  49  41  65  53 /   0  10  20  20
DEQ  52  40  62  55 /   0  20  20  20
TXK  50  44  64  57 /  10  20  20  20
ELD  50  41  64  55 /   0  10  20  20
TYR  52  49  67  59 /  10  20  30  20
GGG  52  47  68  58 /  10  20  30  20
LFK  54  50  70  59 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/07



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