Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 212111
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AS AREAS OF -RA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM SE TX.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NW VIA
A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
OUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SHV
TERMINAL GIVEN THE AREAS OF SHRA OVER E TX MOVING NE...WHICH MAY
RETARD THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE SCT SHRA MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/SW AR/EXTREME NW LA...WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE. OTHERWISE...THESE SHRA MAY DIMINISH FROM S TO N BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP BY THIS TIME OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  60  40  60  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  40  30  80  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  60  50  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  60  50  80  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  40  30  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  70  50  80  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  70  50  80  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  70  50  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






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