Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 310335
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
935 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE FOUR STATE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT...PROVIDING DRY AND COOL WEATHER CONDITION.
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES, /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 31/00Z TAFS...BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW/MID LVL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME SELY BY SATURDAY MORNING AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS OK/TX FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT KTYR
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS THAT THE CIRRUS
SHIELD HAS THICKENED...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT AS A SLUG
OF ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLS E INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SRN
CA/NRN BAJA CLOSED LOW. SFC RIDGING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO N
TX THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVERNIGHT AS
WELL...ALLOWING FOR A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN. SHOULD START TO
SEE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO E TX/WCNTRL LA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE COLUMN SATURATION
FURTHER THAN EARLIER RUNS...WITH MUCH OF THE MEASURABLE QPF FARTHER W
OF THE REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED BACK POPS FURTHER W
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
40KT SWRLY LLJ SHIFTS NE INTO E TX/SE OK AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH SET TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE PROGS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE STORM TOTAL
QPFS AS WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER TOTALS OVER SE OK AND THE NRN SECTIONS
OF SW AR. DESPITE THIS...HAVE EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD GET MEASURABLE RAIN...WITH THE
RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. DESPITE THE MODEST SWRLY
LLJ...HAVE OMITTED ISOLATED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AS THIS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY REMOTE GIVEN THE POOR SFC INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

SHOULD SEE MUCH COLDER AIR SPILL SWD BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAX TEMPS TRENDING SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY EVEN AS ANY POST-FRONTAL STRATUS DIMINISHES. THESE
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE AIR MASS
BEGINS TO MODIFY TUESDAY AS A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE ONCE IT SHIFTS E INTO THE SE STATES. OUR
FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE W AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN BAJA SINKS
SWD ALONG THE MX COAST MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING E ACROSS NRN MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNING TO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCT -SHRA RETURNING TO THESE AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HAVE EXPANDED CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER N THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH REINFORCED ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SWD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. DID CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NE
HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD QUICKLY
DIVE SWD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY. HOWEVER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  57  51  60  34 /   0  10  70  80  20
MLU  32  58  48  60  36 /   0  10  50  80  40
DEQ  32  51  45  54  26 /  10  20  90  80  10
TXK  35  53  47  57  29 /  10  20  90  80  20
ELD  32  56  47  57  31 /   0  10  70  80  30
TYR  40  55  51  59  31 /  10  20  90  70  20
GGG  40  57  51  60  31 /  10  20  90  80  20
LFK  41  59  53  65  36 /   0  20  70  80  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




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