Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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967
FXUS64 KSHV 092041
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WNWLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE SHARP. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE TOYED WITH THE
IDEA OF EXTENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...BUT HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST DOING SO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER 4 PM...BUT THESE
OCCURRENCES SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLD AS WE APPROACH THE 5 PM
HOUR.

SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
FCST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS
NECESSARILY WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL US DOWN FRIDAY AND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE E COAST AS ANOTHER LINES UP
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL DRAW FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT BACK NWD OVER CENTRAL/N
TX. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVER OUR FAR WRN E TX/SE OK
COUNTIES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD INTO OUR REGION AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT QPF WITH MONDAY`S
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT...DESPITE THE SHORT TIME OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH CONSIDERING THE DAY SEVEN POSITION...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 09/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 10/18Z. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ABOVE THE SURFACE MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 8-10 KFT FOR KTXK AND KELD. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO NEAR 25-30 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 10/00Z WHEN SPEEDS TAPER
OFF AND BECOME NEAR CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 4 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING
INCREASING TO 7-10 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

12



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