Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 251630
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE STRATUS SHIELD IS STILL HANGING TOUGH THIS MORNING OVER SE
OK/NEN SECTIONS OF SW AR...NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN AR TO JUST E OF TXK...TO JUST N OF
MLU/TVR AS OF 16Z...AND IS BEST DEPICTED VIA THE SFC THETA-E
ANALYSIS. BEGINNING TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR
AND S OF THIS BNDRY OVER N/CNTRL LA AND ADJACENT E TX...WITH
DEWPOINTS HAVING CLIMBED INTO THE MID 70S. THIS...AND ADDED
HEATING...HAS RESULTED IN A HEALTHY CU FIELD ALONG/S OF THE
TROUGH...WITH THE BNDRY HAVING RETREATED A TAD BACK N OF MLU AND
NEARING ELD THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS CU FIELD AS THE 12Z KSHV RAOB
SHOWS THAT THE CU FIELD IS QUITE SHALLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MIX
INTO THE DRIER AIR ALOFT...WHILE SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD WITH THE
EWD EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE MS VALLEY FROM THE
SRN/CNTRL PLAINS.

16Z TEMPS HAVE WARMED QUICKLY WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR ACROSS E
TX/NCNTRL LA...AND HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED
TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR...WHERE
THE STRATUS SHIELD WILL BE SLOWER TO SCATTER OUT GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE SFC BNDRY. HEAT INDICES SHOULD NEAR 105 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX OUT MUCH. BUT
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  71  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  91  71  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  91  72  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  92  70  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  74  95  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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