Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 192114
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
414 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Southeast winds have made a comeback, bringing a return in
southerly flow in the low levels across the region. This will be
very noticeable over the next couple of days as high temperatures
will run some 5 degrees warmer compared to the past couple of
days along with higher dewpoints,which will result in higher
relative humidities. Also, overnight lows will be some 10-15
degrees higher over the next couple of nights. In addition to the
southerly flow return, an abundant amount of cirrus will
continue to move into the region from a weak shortwave pivoting
across the Big Bend area of West Texas this evening. By early
tomorrow morning, the shortwave feature across the Big Bend
country will translate farther east across Texas, with isolated
convection developing prior to daybreak. The chance of isolated
showers, and even a few thunderstorms, will carry through the day
on Friday across much of the region, but better rain chances
still await as we head into the weekend.

An upper level trough will swing out across the Plains on
Saturday, as a low develops east of the Rockies. This will help
push a strong cold front across the southern Plains and into our
region by late Saturday. A warm and unstable environment ahead of
the front will be supportive of potentially severe storms along a
developing squall line east of I-35 from eastern Oklahoma down
into northeast Texas. The primary threat at the moment will be
damaging winds, but can`t rule out a few brief tornadoes at this
juncture. One positive with this system will be the beneficial
rainfall it will bring to the region. Rainfall amounts still
appear to be in the 1-2 inch range for most locations with higher
amounts possible along and north of the I-30 corridor.

The trough and cold front will exit the region on Sunday evening
leaving behind cooler than normal temperatures and dry weather for
most of next week. /20/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  83  66  85 /  10  20  20  40
MLU  55  83  65  84 /  10  10  20  40
DEQ  52  80  62  80 /  10  20  20  40
TXK  57  80  65  82 /  10  20  20  40
ELD  53  79  64  83 /  10  10  20  40
TYR  62  81  67  84 /  20  30  30  40
GGG  60  83  66  84 /  20  20  30  40
LFK  63  82  68  85 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

20



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