Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041951
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
251 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL VORT MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY SSEWD THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
NEAR CLARKSVILLE...SEWD TO NEAR SHREVEPORT. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DOES APPEAR TO BE MAKING SOME VERY SLOW SWWD PROGRESS. LATEST HI-
RES MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THE CONVECTION S OF I-20 BY 00Z. NOT
COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE VERY SLOW
SWD PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS. HAVE KEPT THE ONGOING CONSERVATIVE
POPS FOR TONIGHT...AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY PLAY
A ROLE IN DISSIPATING STORMS. THEN LATE TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SEEN SOMEWHERE ALONG THE LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM...AND WILL
ALLOW EVENING SHIFT TO REEVALUATE FOR THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.

EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT PERFORMANCE FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE THE
REGION BEGINS TO DRY OUT AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WORK WEEK. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REINFORCE ITSELF OVER OUR REGION...AND
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RATCHET UPWARDS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE DURING TUESDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS OK/AR. THIS WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR
THOSE AREAS...BUT WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE DEPARTS TO THE NE.

CONSENSUS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT
THE PD...SO HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THOSE NUMBERS. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS..WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN..FQT LTG...AND POSSIBLE
GUSTY WINDS...MOVG SWD AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING
SE INTO CENTRAL AR. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CWA ACROSS SE TX/CENTRAL LA. TSTMS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF KTXK BY AROUND 21Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KELD...AND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY
AT KSHV. TSTMS TO LIKELY MOVE INTO KMLU LATER THIS AFTN. WHETHER
EAST TX TERMINALS SEE ANY TSTMS IS QUESTIONABLE. TERMINALS THAT
EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT...AS
LACK OF HEATING LIMITED TEMPS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THUS FAR AT
KTXK AND KELD AND GROUND WILL REMAIN VERY WET. THIS COULD ALSO BE
THE CASE AT KSHV AND KMLU WHERE CONVECTION IS APPROACHING. ANOTHER
NOCTURNAL SHORT WAVE MAY AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN CWA...THUS PLACED
TEMPO TSTMS AFTER 05/12Z AT KELD AND 05/14Z AT KMLU./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  73  88  73  92 /  50  50  20  10
DEQ  70  88  72  90 /  40  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  30  10
ELD  71  88  73  92 /  40  50  30  10
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  74  90  75  93 /  30  30  10  10
LFK  75  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.