Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 301538 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1038 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...TEMPS ARE QUICKLY REBOUNDING UNDER
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND THE RETURN OF SLY WINDS. NEXT COLD FRONT IS
ON ITS WAY BUT IS STILL WELL TO THE NW...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE...INTO NW OK...AND INTO NE KS. GOING FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SKC WILL
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS E TX/NW LA...ALTHOUGH SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN AC FROM THE NW AFTER 18Z ACROSS SE OK/SW AR AND
EVENTUALLY NCNTRL LA. THIS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING...WITH
SKC EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. COULD ALSO
SEE A SCT CU FIELD AFFECT THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX AFTER 00Z...BEFORE
QUICKLY SCOURING BY 06Z. SFC RIDGING WILL RESULT IN LT/VRB WINDS
TODAY...BEFORE TURNING NW AROUND 5KTS LATE WITH THE NEXT COLD FROPA. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS SPRAWLED OVER THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS OR CALM IN MANY CASES. OUR SKIES ARE CLEAR OVERHEAD
WITH AIR TEMPS IN THE FORTIES ALMOST AREA WIDE. WE ARE CLOSING IN
ON DEW POINTS WITH DEW AND SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL...A STELLAR DAY IS AHEAD RIGHT AROUND
PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS DESPITE THE COOLER START. OUR SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE COMING AROUND TO S AND E AS THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER.

OVERNIGHT THE NEXT APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW
AND HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO DISPLACE...SO A DRY PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
TX...EVEN A CU FIELD NOW IN THE AUSTIN AREA...COULD TOUCH OFF SOME
ACTIVITY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHWEST THOUGH. THE FRESH ARCTIC WINDS
WILL BE BLOWING AND GOING SOUTH TOMORROW AS THIS NEXT HIGH POWERS
INTO THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE TOMORROW
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY SATURDAY MORNING AT DAYBREAK OR
SO...THE WINDS WILL SLACK AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TRANSPIRED FROM VEGETATION AND SOIL FOR SOME LIGHT FROST IN THE
I-CORRIDOR ONLY...BUT THE AIR WILL BE VERY DRY WITH 20 DEW POINTS.
THE WINDS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AND THIS FROST MAY ONLY OCCUR IN
SHELTERED AREAS...BUT ONE THING FOR SURE IS THAT IT WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AREA WIDE TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND. OUR HIGHS
WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW EARLY NOV AVERAGES.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND
PATCHY FROST MAY AFFECT A FEW MORE LOCALES EARLY SUNDAY AREA WIDE.
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WHILE RADIATING DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. FROM THERE THE WINDS QUICKLY WARM US IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE IS NOT A LOT
DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING INTO ELECTION DAY. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY RAINFALL
COVERAGE WILL BE SPREADING AND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
STILL A MUCH NEEDED SOAKING FOR MANY EXPECTED TO UNFOLD DURING THE
EVENING AS RESULTS TRICKLE IN...THE RAIN WILL BE PICKING UP AREA
WIDE. WEDNESDAY IS STILL A LACKING TOTAL AGREEMENT AS THE GFS
LOSES THE LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE SLOWER EURO IS
SLOWLY RAMPING UP DURING THE WEDNESDAY. SO FOR NOW 50/50 CONTINUES
TO BE REASONABLE FOR OUR EXPECTATIONS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  50  71  36  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
MLU  74  46  71  35  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
DEQ  75  43  66  28  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  74  50  68  33  56 /   0  10   0   0   0
ELD  73  47  67  32  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
TYR  77  51  68  36  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  76  48  70  35  60 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  78  49  75  39  63 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






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