Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 191143
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
643 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 19/12z TAFs, some patchy fog will be possible through
19/14z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail areawide
through the entire period. Isolated diurnal convection may develop
during the 19/17z-19/00z time frame near an elongated upper
trough axis located near the Interstate 20 corridor. However, rain
chances at any particular terminal are too low to warrant
inclusion in the TAFs at this time.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure across the region to allow for hot temperatures
today with highs forecast to climb into the mid 90s. Based on
previous observations from Friday, where heat index values
climbed to around 106 to 108 degrees across several locations
across the ArkLaTex and the fact that the upper ridge will remain
firmly established across the region today, went ahead with a
heat advisory across southern Arkansas, north Louisiana and
portions of east Texas. Additionally, went with a slightly drier
rainfall bias compared to the models today, focusing any
convection basically along a southward moving outflow boundary
that will push across southern Arkansas later this morning and
north Louisiana during the afternoon.

With upper-ridge anchored across the deep south, a heat advisory
may be necessary again on Sunday as high temperatures climb into
the mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid 70s.

Pattern begins to shift on Monday as upper-low drifts west across
the Gulf of Mexico. Convection to increase from the south as
upper-low rides along southern periphery of established ridge with
increased seabreeze convection mainly along and south of
Interstate 20 during the afternoon on Monday.

Upper-low drifting west into south Texas combined with a cold
front approaching from the north will allow for increased cloud-
cover through the middle of the work week with high temperatures
easing into the low to mid 90s by Wednesday. Additionally, rain
chances will increase with frontal passage on Wednesday. Cool
temperatures expected behind the front with highs on Thursday in
the mid 80s across I-30 to around 90 across deep east Texas and
north Louisiana. Low temperatures will fall into the upper 60s to
near 70 behind the front.

Front forecast to linger across the northern gulf coast through
the end of the work week allowing for a slight chance of showers
south of I-20 with cool temps persisting through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  77  96  77 /  10  10  20  10
MLU  96  75  95  76 /  30  20  20  10
DEQ  95  74  95  74 /  10  10  20  10
TXK  95  75  96  75 /  10  10  20  10
ELD  94  76  96  75 /  10  10  20  10
TYR  96  76  95  76 /  10  10  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  76 /  10  10  20  10
LFK  96  76  96  76 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ097-151>153-165>167.

&&

$$

09/05



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