Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 221731
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1131 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.UPDATE...
To adjust the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
around the upper closed low pressure system over Eastern parts of
the forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level closed low pressure system continued to spin over
Northeast Louisiana and Southeast Arkansas with colder air aloft
helping to produce showers and maybe isolated thunderstorms
across Southeast Oklahoma, extreme Northeast Texas, Southwest and
South Central Arkansas and North Louisiana in its wake. Also
a few showers over parts of Deep East Texas and lower parts of
Northwest and North Central Louisiana. Have made a few adjustments
to the area of showers and isolated thunderstorms to account for
the current and possible future development today, and lingering
showers in the early evening. Will continue to see winds
increasing with the pressure gradient tightening between surface
low pressure over Arkansas and high pressure over the plains and
across West Texas. Boaters venturing out today or during the
evening should be very cautious due to the rough chop on area
lakes, rivers and bayous. Small boats will be more prone to
capsizing. For the 4 PM package issuance may have to extend the
lake wind advisory through midnight for parts of South Central
Arkansas and North Louisiana. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 550 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 22/12z TAFs, an upper trough will move across the Arklatex
today which should result in another round of convection, mainly
across Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest/Southern Arkansas, and
extreme Northeast Texas. Some of this activity may develop far
enough south to affect KSHV and KMLU. An isolated strong or severe
thunderstorm with an associated hail threat will remain possible
due to cold temperatures aloft. VFR conditions should generally
prevail areawide, but wrap-around clouds and the convection could
result in ceilings dipping into the MVFR category in a few places.
As a cold front moves across the area early in the period, surface
winds from the southwest will shift to the northwest and will
increase in speed to 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 35 mph. Wind
speeds should gradually diminish, and skies should gradually clear
from northwest to southeast after 23/03z as the upper trough moves
east of the region.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  43  64  47 /  30  10   0   0
MLU  64  44  61  42 /  40  20   0   0
DEQ  60  37  61  40 /  40  10   0   0
TXK  60  40  62  44 /  40  10   0   0
ELD  62  41  61  42 /  40  10   0   0
TYR  62  41  67  49 /  10  10   0   0
GGG  62  42  64  47 /  20  10   0   0
LFK  65  43  68  48 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06/09


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