Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 010505 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOW IFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS WILL PERSIST ACROSS E TX/WRN
LA/SW AR AND SE OK OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER SCNTRL
AR/NCNTRL LA EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING AS AREAS
OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
ATTM...ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN
THE SHV/MLU TAF/S ATTM. NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH IMPROVEMENT AFTER
12Z FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E
BY MIDDAY. A WEAK SFC LOW NEAR RFI AS OF 05Z IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SE INTO THE TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...THUS MAINTAINING THE
LIFR/IFR CIGS NEAR/N OF THE LOW. SHOULD SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
CIGS FROM N TO S FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
BELIEVE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME DETERIORATION EXPECTED AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
CAN/T RULE OUT WIDELY SCT CONVECTION REDEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL LA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BETTER
INSTABILITY...AND THUS HAVE ADDED VCTS FOR THE MLU TERMINAL FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ENE WINDS 6KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY BELOW 10KTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW SHIFTING SLOWLY SEWRD AND WAS LOCATED NEAR OR JUST NW OF
LFK AS OF 03Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF STRONGER
CONVECTION NOW SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS SE TX. FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RADAR TRENDS
AND GENERALLY INCREASED THEM ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LFK TO
SHV AND ELD. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOSTLY
IN THE FORM OF SHWRS BUT A FEW ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS CLOUD HEIGHTS/TOPS VARY WITH THE DIFFERENT AREAS OF
CONVECTION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART INTO FRIDAY SO
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN HALF
OF THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING. OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INCLUDE INCREASING LOWS
A DEGREE OR TWO AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PRETTY STEADY OVERNIGHT
WITH THICK CLOUD LAYERS...ALSO TWEAKED DEW POINTS AND WINDS TO
BETTER MIMIC CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  83  69  85  69 /  60  30  20  20  10
MLU  69  84  67  86  67 /  60  40  30  30  20
DEQ  65  79  65  85  66 /  20  20  10  10  10
TXK  65  80  66  85  66 /  40  20  10  10  10
ELD  67  81  65  84  66 /  60  30  10  20  10
TYR  69  84  68  86  70 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  69  83  68  86  68 /  40  20  10  10  10
LFK  72  87  70  90  71 /  60  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





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