Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 291540
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1040 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF MORNING CONVECTION RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NE
TX...TO NEAR SE OK BORDER. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY ACROSS
THIS AREA...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED AFTN HIGHS TO MAINLY
UPPER 80S ACROSS THIS REGION. FURTHER EAST...RAISED DAYTIME TEMPS
SLIGHTLY PER CURRENT TRENDS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF CONTINUING TO SNAKE ITS WAY EWRD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHWRS NOTED ON KSHV RADAR ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE
BASE OF THE TROF OVER N CNTRL TX AND EXPECT GRADUAL EWRD MOVEMENT
OF THIS CONVECTION INTO OUR REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
TROF AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE FURTHER ON
SATURDAY AS RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES NWRD IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LATEST NAM/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL SETTING UP FROM DEEP E TX TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SABINE RIVER IN N LA...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THESE SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO THE DRIER GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND AS
EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 80S AREA
WIDE...A NICE CHANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 90S EARLIER THIS WEEK.

RAIN CHANCES WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE TROF SLOWLY
DEPARTING TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY ON MONDAY BUT THIS
ALSO MEANS A RETURN TO LOW AND MIDDLE 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND BACK WWRD ALONG THE
ENTIRE GULF COAST STATES. SO ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN/SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE SLIM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING TO RUN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  74  86  73  91 /  40  30  70  40  40
MLU  95  73  85  71  89 /  30  40  70  50  40
DEQ  88  71  87  70  89 /  60  40  40  30  20
TXK  94  72  86  71  88 /  40  40  60  30  30
ELD  95  72  85  71  88 /  30  40  70  50  40
TYR  88  75  89  74  91 /  60  30  40  20  20
GGG  92  74  88  73  90 /  60  30  60  30  30
LFK  95  75  86  74  91 /  40  30  70  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







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