Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 312023
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
323 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AMPLE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG TX AND LA
COASTLINES...WITH VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH TODAY.
HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW OVER SE TX BEGINS TO TIGHTEN UP LATER
TONIGHT...AS SEEN BEST ON NAM...DEEPER SOUTH FLOW WILL SURGE
THIS MOISTURE NWD. LOOKING LIKE COULD BE A DECENT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MORE ISOLD NORTH OF I-20. THESE TRENDS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE WEEK AS THIS LOW MOVES LITTLE...ALTHOUGH
EVEN A MINOR SHIFT SWD INTO THE GULF WITH THE LOW WILL CONCENTRATE
MORE OF THIS MOISTURE INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PERSISTENCE OF
TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH DAYTIME
HIGHS MAY PUSH INTO THE UPPER 90S IF THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER AND
ALLOWS FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AR TO SHIFT NWD AND
NOT AFFECT THE AREA. ADDED ISOLD SHOWERS OF LGT RAIN TO EXTREME
SOUTHERN CWA SHOULD COASTAL PRECIP BREAK FREE AND DRIFT NORTH
BEFROE SUNSET./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 31/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION...AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. MEANWHILE...BANDS OF
DENSE CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NE INTO PORTIONS OF E TX/MUCH OF
N LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FROM SCT CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EXTREME SE TX AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS NEAR AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS CUT OFF ALONG THE MIDDLE
TX COASTAL BEND. THIS CIRRUS SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...THUS LIMITING PATCHY FG DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL SCT
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND AFTER 06Z BETWEEN IAH
AND BPT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWERING AC CIGS /BETWEEN 12-15KFT/
AFTER 09Z OVER DEEP E TX...WITH THIS CONVECTION POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE LFK TERMINAL BY MID-MORNING TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING PRECLUDES MENTION ATTM. WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF E TX/N LA AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO BECOME MORE SERLY 5-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SW
AR/WRN LA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT SE/LT AND VRB
AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  94  72  94 /  10  20  20  20
MLU  72  96  73  95 /  10  20  20  30
DEQ  69  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  71  94  71  93 /  10  10  10  20
ELD  72  95  71  94 /  10  20  10  20
TYR  72  92  72  94 /  10  20  20  20
GGG  72  92  71  93 /  10  20  20  20
LFK  74  90  71  93 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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