000
FXUS64 KSHV 211646
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TWEAKS
IN THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. /06/

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SE OK.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS LINE.
STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ARE LIKELY. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FORM A LARGE COMPLEX AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TIMING...TSTMS
COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE I-30 CORRIDOR AS EARLY AS 19Z...AND WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
CONVECTION.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 22/06Z. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE NW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE LATE IN THE
18Z TAF PERIOD. /09/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  69  86  67  88 /  50  70  30  10  10
MLU  89  69  86  67  88 /  40  70  60  10  10
DEQ  80  63  86  65  86 /  70  70  10  10  10
TXK  86  66  86  65  87 /  70  70  10  10  10
ELD  88  68  86  65  87 /  50  70  30  10  10
TYR  87  67  86  68  89 /  60  70  10  10  10
GGG  88  67  86  68  89 /  50  70  20  10  10
LFK  90  70  89  69  90 /  30  60  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09