000
FXUS64 KSHV 170309
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1009 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES ALONG AND NEAR INTERSTATE 30
AND TAPERED LOWER TO INTERSTATE 20 FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF CHANCE OF SEVERE FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES
GIVEN UPPER DISTURBANCES SPREADING SOUTHEAST AND LINED UP TO MOVE
OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ONE AND ONE HALF TO NEAR TWO INCHES
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE GRIDDED DATA TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. /06/

&&

.AVIATION...

SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE AFFECTING SE OK/EXTREME SW AR. THIS
CONVECTION MAY STILL BE ONGOING AND COULD BE AFFECTING KTXK AROUND
THE START OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. OVERALL...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THIS ACTIVITY COULD
AFFECT LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH IN E TX/NW LA/SRN AR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST TAF
SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. /09/



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  93  74  91  73 /  30  40  30  40  30
MLU  72  91  72  89  71 /  30  40  50  40  30
DEQ  71  88  70  85  70 /  60  60  50  40  30
TXK  73  89  71  88  71 /  40  50  50  40  30
ELD  72  89  71  87  70 /  40  50  50  40  30
TYR  75  94  74  90  73 /  30  40  20  30  30
GGG  75  94  74  91  73 /  20  30  20  40  30
LFK  73  94  74  93  73 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09