000
FXUS64 KSHV 151633
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A 1020MB SFC HIGH IS OVER E TN AND NE SFC FLOW IS FADING FAST WITH A
LAST GASP ALONG I-20 FROM MINDEN TO MONROE LAST HOUR. MOST OTHER
LOCALES HAVE ALREADY TURNED MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. OUR 88D VAD IS
SHOWING DEEPENING SE FLOW UP TO 3KFT BACKING A BIT TO MORE OF ESE
AND EAST ALOFT INTO THE MID LEVELS. SO HAVE UPDATED FOR SOME
WINDS AND SKY TRENDS THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES TO EXPECTED HIGHS
WITH PRETTY MUCH LOWER 90S FOR ALL. WE AHEAD AND MADE A FEW SHAVES
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS REALLY
MIXING WELL THIS MORNING WITH ONLY OUR FAR WESTERN TIER HANGING ON
TO THE MOISTURE RICH 70S. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. OF
COURSE ACTIVITY WILL BE WORKING BACK INTO THE AREA AS THE HIGH
LUMBERS OFF TO THE EAST. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A STATIONARY BNDRY EXTENDS FROM SE OK INTO THE WRN SECTIONS
OF E TX SE TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF S LA AS OF 15Z...AND SHOULD
LINGER OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHOULD START TO SEE A
SCT/BKN CU FIELD DEVELOP NEAR AND JUST W OF THIS BNDRY AROUND
MIDDAY...WITH ELEVATED CIGS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SPREADING NE
ACROSS NE TX INTO SW AR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK...WHICH MAY AFFECT THE
TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY. THIS CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE SFC BNDRY BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK N ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SE INTO THE REGION. THUS...ISOLATED CONVECTION
CAN/T BE RULED OUT LATE FARTHER E ACROSS SW AR/WRN LA...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE TXK/SHV TERMINALS. IN ANY CASE...COULD SEE A VFR CU
FIELD REDEVELOP/SPREAD NNE ACROSS N LA AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...WITH LOW
VFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER SE TX/S LA AND SPREADING N
INTO E TX/NCNTRL LA S OF I-20 AROUND/AFTER 12Z. ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD
LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH SPREADS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. ESE WINDS 5-8KTS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME SSE 3-7KTS AFTER 06Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOTED ROUGHLY FROM DE QUEEN AR...TO PALESTINE
TX...TO NEAR LAKE CHARLES LA. A LOOK BACK AT EARLY EVENING RADAR
LOOPS SHOWS THAT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DID INITIATE ALONG THE
FRONT...SOME OF WHICH HAS BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF ACROSS SE TX
AND INTO PARTS OF N TX EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATING QUITE
A BIT MORE COVERAGE/QPF FOR TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND SEEM
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION OVER N AN E
TX. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FORCED BACK TO THE W... AS THE
DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL TX SLIDES UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE TODAY
AND SUNDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO INTERACT WITH THE
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THROUGH MONDAY.

GREATER CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN WNWLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO MAKE A RETURN TO REESTABLISH ITSELF
OVER TX LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...DWINDLING OUR CHANCES FOR
RAIN...AND LIKELY SENDING THE MERCURY BACK UP. /12/

AVIATION...
SOME -SHRA ACTIVITY STILL LINGERS IN PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS THIS
MORNING...BUT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD DISSIPATION. VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR
CALM WINDS WILL PICK UP TO LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AFTER DAYBREAK...THEN
BECOMING MORE VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE TSRA ACTIVITY MAY BE
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TEXAS TERMINALS. NO VSBY CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT WHERE TEMPO TSRA ACTIVITY OCCURS...AND THAT WILL
LIKELY BE HANDLED WITH AMD. /11/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  74  94  75  93 /  10  20  20  10  20
MLU  93  71  93  74  92 /   0  10  20  10  30
DEQ  93  70  92  72  89 /  20  20  30  20  40
TXK  91  71  93  74  90 /  10  20  30  20  40
ELD  91  70  93  72  90 /  10  10  30  20  40
TYR  92  74  93  75  92 /  40  20  10  10  20
GGG  93  73  93  74  93 /  40  20  10  10  20
LFK  94  74  95  75  94 /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15