000
FXUS64 KSHV 170923
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
423 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW...IN PART RESPONSIBLE FOR A LONG TRACK SUPERCELL ACROSS NORTHERN
LA YESTERDAY AFTN...IS OPENING UP AND MOVG ACROSS NE AR. TRAILING
EDGE OF ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SE AR AND SKIRTING
EDGE OF CWA. KEEPING ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS SW AR THIS AM. DECENT
INSTABILITY THIS AFTN WARRANTS 30 POPS FOR TSTMS OVER SW AR...AND
20 POPS OVER NORTHERN LA AND PORTIONS OF NE TX...WITH STG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LIKELY LINGERING OVER THE REGION FROM YESTERDAYS
STORMS. NAM MODEL REFLECTS THIS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...WHILE GFS
MOS DOES NOT.

INCREASED UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING MID LVL DRYING AND INCREASED
CAPPING INVERSION FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS MAY APPROACH THE 90
DEGREE MARK FOR MUCH OF AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO WORK
INTO THE RIDGE EARLY IN THE WEEK AND MAY STALL OUT MID WEEK
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY END OF EXTENDED PERIOD....UPPER
RIDGING APPEARS TO TAKE OVER AND BECOME CENTERED OVER CWA.

WIL KEEP AN EYE ON RECENTLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION BTWN FTW AND
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER...IT MAY SLIP
SEWD INTO EAST TX LAKES AREA. IN THIS EVENT...AND EARLY MORNING
UPDATE TO FCST COULD BE REQUIRED./VII/

&&

.AVIATION...
STILL SEEING A MYRIAD OF CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
MVFR CIGS WIDESPREAD ACROSS E TX/SE OK...AND MUCH OF SW AR...WHILE
VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF N LA GIVEN THAT A LARGE SUCKER
HOLE HAS OPENED UP AND EXPANDED ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF N
LA BETWEEN 10-13Z. THE 08Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC BNDRY
EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF DFW...TO SLR/OSA/TXK...THEN NE TO ADF. THIS
BNDRY HAS FOCUSED ISOLATED -SHRA OVER SW AR THIS MORNING...BUT HAS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THE PARENT
UPPER LOW OVER NE AR CONTINUES TO SHIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. IT
HAS ALSO FOCUSED REDUCED VSBYS AS WELL...WITH PATCHY FG POSSIBLE
THROUGH 14Z OVER THESE AREAS. THIS BNDRY SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT N
AND WASH OUT BY MIDDAY...WITH MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LIFT BY LATE MORNING...WITH THE SW AR TERMINALS THE LAST
TO LIFT. CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY S OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N
LA...WITH VFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SW AR. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
FROM THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK/NE TX SE INTO SW AR/N LA THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING...AND ALSO IN VC OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH THAT
MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL NOT MAKE MENTION IN THE 12Z TAFS ATTM. ANY
ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING...WITH LOW VFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING/ADVECTING N
INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. SSE WINDS 8-13KTS TODAY WILL
BECOME S AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 5-10KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/

$$


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  70  89  69  89 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  85  70  88  68  88 /  30  20  10  10  10
DEQ  83  68  88  66  87 /  30  20  10  10  20
TXK  83  70  88  68  89 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  83  69  88  66  88 /  30  20  10  10  10
TYR  87  71  90  69  90 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  87  70  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  90  71  91  70  90 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$