000
FXUS64 KSHV 140935
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
435 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING STILL MOVG INTO AREA FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN GULF...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE ACROSS REGION TODAY...BECMG 10
TO 15 MPH AND GUSTY OVER NE TX. OVERNIGHT TEMPS CURRENTLY IN UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S...WILL REBOUND WELL INTO 80S TODAY WITH MOSTLY
DRY AIRMASS. STG LOW LVL INVERSION EVIDENT ON AREA RADAR DISPLAYS
WITH EXPANDING GROUND CLUTTER PATTERNS. UPPER LOW OVER BAJA WILL
EJECT AND BECOME A SLOW MOVG OPEN WAVE...BRINGING PACIFIC MOISTURE
WITH MOISTENING MID LVL CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY WED WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TSTM ACTIVTIY
LATER IN THE DAY AND NIGHT. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL BE CUT OFF
IN THIS FLOW...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT REGIME
OF LOWS IN MID/UPPER 60S AND AFTN HIGHS IN MID/UPPER 80S BEGINNING
ON THURSDAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND DEEPER LOW OVER PLAINS
LATER IN WEEKEND WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF TSTMS TO REGION
DURG EXTENDED. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE TO REMAIN RATHER
MEAGER...AND WILL LEAVE POPS IN EXTENDED PERIOD AS ISOLD FOR
NOW./VII/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MID MORNING...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 14/18 UTC OVER PARTS OF EAST TEXAS. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 14 KNOTS TODAY TO BECOME 5 TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EAST TEXAS
BY 15/12 UTC. /05/

$$

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  60  79  62  82 /   0  20  40  40  20
MLU  84  60  82  61  83 /   0  10  20  30  30
DEQ  85  59  77  60  80 /   0  30  50  50  30
TXK  86  60  77  62  81 /   0  20  40  50  30
ELD  84  58  81  60  81 /   0  10  20  40  30
TYR  85  63  77  64  83 /   0  30  50  50  20
GGG  85  61  78  63  83 /   0  30  50  50  20
LFK  86  62  78  64  84 /   0  20  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$