000
FXUS64 KSHV 141925
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
225 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
NEARLY STNRY BOUNDARY SET UP...ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS MIDSECTION
OF CWA. THIS BOUNDARY DEPICTED WELL ON VIS SAT IMAGERY...WITH
MODERATE CUMULUS FIELDS ON MOIST SIDE ONLY. WILL LEAVE IN ISOLD
EVE CONVECTION OVER EAST TX...ALTHOUGH NONE HAS YET TO DEVELOP
WITH MID LVL CAPPING IN OTHERWISE FAVORABLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
POSITION OF BOUNDARY EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
PLAINS...REACHING NORTHERN CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER RIDGE
PARKING OVER NORTHERN MEX. PCPN WATER VALUES NEAR THIS FRONT WILL
BE AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH WILL EASILY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. HAVE UPPED POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEPING IN CHANCE
CATEGORY...FOR TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO AREA...
RAIN CHANCES TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD./VII/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONTAL BNDRY HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE MID-MORNING...AND
EXTENDS FROM NEAR LBR...TO JUST W OF TXK AND MNE...ACROSS NCNTRL LA
TO JUST S OF HEZ AND MCB AS OF 19Z. THIS BNDRY SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT W
INTO EXTREME ERN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY
SPREADING SW WITH THE FROPA ACROSS WRN LA. THE CU FIELD IS QUITE
ABUNDANT W OF THE FRONT ACROSS E TX/WRN LA...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z OVER THESE AREAS AND
PROGRESSING SLOWLY WSW. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS COULD AFFECT
THE E TX TERMINALS THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING STILL REMAINS LOW AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. A
SCT/BKN CU FIELD SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF E TX OVERNIGHT...WITH
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION OVER WCNTRL TX SPREADING
ENE INTO THE REGION. WHILE THIS CU FIELD MAY DIMINISH
LATE...ADDITIONAL CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID/LATE MORNING SATURDAY
NEAR THE BNDRY AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM EXTREME N TX INTO DEEP
E TX AND S LA. OTHER AREAS OF CU SHOULD BUILD N INTO THE SRN
SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC BNDRY BEGINS
TO WASH OUT. ENE WINDS 4-8KTS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON OVER N
LA/SW AR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LT/VRB WINDS OVER E TX JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME ESE 3-6KTS AREAWIDE AFTER 00Z. /15/

$$


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  93  73  94  74 /  10  20  20  20  10
MLU  70  95  71  94  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
DEQ  70  90  71  93  71 /  10  20  20  20  20
TXK  72  91  72  94  72 /  10  20  20  20  20
ELD  68  94  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  20  20
TYR  77  93  74  93  73 /  20  20  20  10  10
GGG  75  94  74  94  73 /  20  20  20  10  10
LFK  77  94  73  95  74 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$