000
FXUS64 KSHV 140234
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
934 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A BROAD SFC HIGH REAMINS OVER THE ERN CONUS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND THE RETURN OF
SRLY FLOW COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS DEEP
E TX AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. GOING FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND A FEW MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO SKY/WIND/DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED
ON LATEST OBS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TERMINAL SITES ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT
15/06 UTC. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY/SKC IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS BY MID MORNING TUESDAY 14/15 UTC AHEAD OF A
CLOSED LOW COMING OUT OF MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS...AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY FORM
AFTER 14/18 UTC OVER PARTS OF EAST TEXAS. SLIGHTLY REDUCED SURFACE
VISIBILITIES NEAR DAYBREAK MAY AFFECT THE KLFK TERMINAL. CIRCULATION
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
FOUR STATE REGION WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 14
KNOTS FROM AROUND 14/14 UTC WEDNESDAY TO 15/00 THURSDAY WHEN SPEEDS
LOWER TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 15/13 UTC. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH CENTER HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST
INTO ERN MS/WRN AL. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING QUITE RAPIDLY TODAY AFTER A CHILLY START
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE RETURN
OF SLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...DEWPOINTS HAVE MANAGED TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW AREAS IN THE 30S ACROSS EAST TX WITH
THE DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH TUESDAY AS LL MOISTURE RETURN
CONTINUES UNDER INCREASED SLY FLOW DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.

TO THE SOUTHWEST...A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY KICK OUT OF
BAJA AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE WEST COAST. UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS W TX INTO CNTRL OK AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT IN A
WARM...MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE ISOLD TO SCTD CONVECTION BY
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER EAST TX AND SPREAD FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH CONVECTION LIKELY
DEPENDENT ON AMPLE HEATING AND INSTABILITY FOR INITIATION...AND
QPF NUMBERS STILL LOOK RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE ATTM.

AFTER THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NEWRD...POPS DROP TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THURSDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES
IN A FEW SPOTS. IN THE EXTENDED...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN
BY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND EXPAND
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
PICTURE. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  86  60  80  61 /   0   0  20  40  30
MLU  53  85  58  81  60 /   0   0  10  30  30
DEQ  52  86  58  78  59 /   0   0  30  50  40
TXK  58  87  61  78  61 /   0   0  20  50  40
ELD  52  85  56  80  59 /   0   0  10  30  40
TYR  57  86  63  78  63 /   0   0  30  50  40
GGG  55  86  61  79  62 /   0   0  30  50  40
LFK  55  87  62  79  63 /   0   0  20  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/06