000
FXUS64 KSHV 151022
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
522 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF TX PANHANDLE..WIL MOVE SLOWLY TO
NE ACROSS SOUTHERN OK...AND PERHAPS DEEPEN JUST A LITTLE TODAY.
WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY JUST CROSSING
NEAR I-35 AND TRACKING TO THE NE. WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS OVER EAST
TX THIS AM...AND SPREADING INTO REMAINDER OF CWA BY THIS EVE. WILL
CONFINE LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT TO NORTHERN CWA...CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW TRACK. WILL TAPER OFF POPS FROM THE SW THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVE...BUT WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF LOW...AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SOUTH OF LOW...CLOSE CALL ON WHETHER TO MAINTAIN ISOLD
POPS. HOWEVER...CAPPING TO INCREASE INTO WEEKEND...ENHANCING
WARMING TREND AND MAY SEE A FEW TEMPS TOP OUT RIGHT NEAR THE 90
DEGREE MARK. UPPER RIDGING MOVG EAST OF AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
AND WILL SEE A CHANCE OF TSTMS ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...NOT SURE HOW
FAR THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE INTO THE REGION...SO DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE YET ON POPS NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY./VII/

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS E TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH
14/13 UTC AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHEAST. SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO OUR E TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING TO
NEARLY ALL TERMINAL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MLU/ELD BY 15/00 UTC.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS AND GUSTY TODAY BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
/05/

$$

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  63  81  69  86 /  40  40  30  10  10
MLU  83  62  82  68  86 /  20  30  30  20  10
DEQ  76  61  77  66  84 /  50  60  40  20  10
TXK  79  62  79  68  84 /  50  50  40  20  10
ELD  82  61  80  66  84 /  20  40  40  20  10
TYR  78  64  81  70  85 /  50  50  20  10  10
GGG  79  63  81  69  85 /  50  50  20  10  10
LFK  80  64  84  70  87 /  40  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$