000
FXUS64 KSHV 131938
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
238 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGING SEEN ON SATELLITE CENTERED OVER
OK...WITH LIMITED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF CWA...AND
SUNNY SKIES CLOSER TO THE RIDGE. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION SHUNTED
WELL AWAY OVER SOUTH TX...IN DEEP LOW TO MID LVL SE FLOW INTO TX
COAST. WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT SEEN OVER NORTHERN AR...WILL TRY TO
IMPINGE EASTERN PORTIONS OF UPPER RIDGE...AND WILL BRING MID TO
UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS BACK INTO SW AR ON FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY
AREAWIDE FOR SATURDAY. WHEN THE LIFT FROM THIS FRONT CAN OVERCOME
INFLUENCE OF RIDGE REMAINS MORE QUESTIONABLE. WILL MAINTAIN A
SHIFTING AREA OF DIURNAL ISOLD POPS ACROSS AREA TO REFLECT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTN TEMPS IN MID 90S WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
THRU THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FROM THE NORTH
NEXT WEEK...WITH REMNANTS OF RIDGE SHIFTING WEST. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...WILL SEE ISOLD MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY POSSIBLY
MONDAY AFTN. MOISTURE IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE...COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION MAY BECOME SCATTERED OVER PORTIONS OF AREA EAST OF
I-40...AROUND PERIPHERY OF RETROGRADING RIDGE. INCREASED CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE...SEASONAL
NORMS FOR EXTENDED PERIOD./VII/

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE SCT
CU FIELD OVER E TX/N LA/SCNTRL AR SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
00Z...BUT MAY PERSIST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM ERN OK INTO
CNTRL/SRN AR AND NE LA ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
THAT WILL DRIFT SW. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY STILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER SE AR/NRN MS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST E OF THE ELD AND MLU TERMINALS. VFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY THIS EVENING AFFECTING THE ELD/MLU
TERMINALS...SLOWLY DRIFTING WSW INTO EXTREME SW AR/WRN LA THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS OVER NE LA
/MLU/ AFTER 10Z...BUT ANY CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT BY
MIDMORNING. A SCT CU FIELD SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP BY MIDDAY FRIDAY
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AFTER 18Z OVER WRN LA/E TX NEAR AND W OF THIS SFC BNDRY. WSW WINDS
7-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z...EXCEPT
BECOME LIGHT NE OVER SCNTRL AR/NE LA LATE WITH THE BACKDOOR FROPA.
/15/

$$


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  20  20
MLU  74  93  69  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  73  93  69  93  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
TXK  75  94  71  94  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
ELD  73  94  67  94  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  20  20
GGG  74  96  73  95  73 /  10  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  96  76  95  73 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$