000
FXUS64 KSHV 170259
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
959 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAINING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WILL END
RAIN CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST OF A DE QUEEN ARKANSAS TO MONROE
LOUISIANA LINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND KEEP ONLY SMALL
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHEAST. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE DROPPED.

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT AS READINGS IN
SOME OF THE RAIN COOLED AREAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW FORECAST VALUES.
HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS FAIRLY HIGH...THINK MOST LOCATIONS HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN ABOUT AS FAR AS THEY ARE GOING TOO.

NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED FOR THE EVENING...WITH THE ONLY
REMAINING CONVECTION STILL INFLUENCING THE ELD TERMINAL AS OF 02Z. A
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS NEAR 4-6KFT ARE PREVAILING ATTM BUT AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
MVFR WITH EVEN IFR CEILINGS LIKELY IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ALREADY
SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG AT THE TXK/SHV TERMINALS AND THIS COULD
SPREAD INTO OTHER TERMINALS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE TX
TERMINALS WHERE THE GROUND IS VERY DAMP. EXPECT A PREDOMINANT SOUTH
WIND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST BEYOND 06Z THIS
EVENING. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

/13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  86  69  88  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
MLU  68  84  69  87  68 /  40  20  20  10  10
DEQ  65  82  67  87  66 /  30  20  20  10  10
TXK  66  82  69  87  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
ELD  66  82  68  87  66 /  50  20  20  10  10
TYR  69  86  70  89  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  69  86  69  89  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  71  89  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/13