000
FXUS64 KSHV 120832
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
332 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM PALESTINE TX...TO
NEAR EL DORADO AR...AND HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY SWD PROGRESS OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS NW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S...AND A CUT-OFF LOW
OVER BAJA UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S.

1024 SFC RIDGE IS FCST TO SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION TODAY...MAKING
FOR A VERY NICE MOTHER`S DAY. WITH THE FROPA...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AND THE AREA SHOULD
SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS/DRIFTS EWD AND THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES WEAK.

A DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE PAC NW WILL FORCE THE WRN U.S. UPPER
RIDGE AND THE ERN U.S. TROF EWD...FINALLY ALLOWING THE BAJA LOW TO
MOVE NEWD AND SOAK INTO THE MAIN FLOW BY TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FCST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS TX. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE...AS THE UPPER
FLOW DAMPENS AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. /12/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 13/12 UTC. ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND A SURFACE FRONT TO PRODUCE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS EARLY TODAY...BECOMING NORTHEAST AND EAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 13/00 UTC SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  51  81  57  85 /  10  10   0  10  10
MLU  75  49  81  55  84 /  10  10   0  10  10
DEQ  77  45  81  54  85 /  10  10   0  10  10
TXK  76  50  81  58  85 /  10  10   0  10  10
ELD  74  47  79  54  84 /  10  10   0  10  10
TYR  78  53  82  59  85 /  10  10   0  10  10
GGG  78  50  82  57  85 /  10  10   0  10  10
LFK  81  52  84  57  85 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12/05