Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 301157 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
657 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.AVIATION...
The cold front has just exited the region this morning, and
extends from just W of a LLQ, to E of MLU, to just E of ESF as of
1130Z. IFR/low MVFR cigs remain in place attm immediately behind
the front across SE AR/Ern sections of Ncntrl LA, but these should
gradually improve later this morning as the drier post-frontal air
deepens in wake of the front. Farther W, VFR conditions will
persist through the 12Z TAF period with the elevated CU/AC cigs
expected to gradually diminish from W to E by late morning through
the afternoon. Still seeing some elevated areas of -RA ongoing
across portions of E TX/SW AR/NW LA, associated with the main
closed low over the TX Panhandle. Given the elevated cigs and
light nature of the -RA, no vsby restrictions are expected, with
the -RA areas expected to quickly shift E out of E TX by late
morning and out of Scntrl AR/N LA by mid afternoon. Should see
some wrap-around cu cigs develop this afternoon across portions of
extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR as the closed low lifts ENE across NW OK
into Srn KS, which these cigs possibly affecting the TXK terminal
this afternoon. These cigs should quickly scatter out this evening
as the low shifts E into Srn MO, with SKC returning areawide for
the end of the TAF period. The primary concern though will be the
gusty WSW winds developing by late morning through the afternoon,
with winds increasing to 10-15kts with gusts to 25kts possible.
These winds will diminish 8-12kts after 00Z Monday. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 530 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The back edge of strong convection is moving through our eastern-
most counties and parishes early this morning with Severe T`Storm
Watch 178 still in effect for these areas until 6 AM this morning.
The cold front responsible for this intense line of thunderstorms
is located generally from KELD to KRSN to KIER based on latest 05Z
surface plots. Cold air advection will continue to quickly advance
eastward with fropa as stable air spills across the entire region.
Behind the front, spotty light showers will remain possible this
morning through perhaps early this afternoon before clouds begin
to slowly scour out as dry air aloft entrains from the southwest
with the associated upper level trough lifting and ejecting to the
northeast away from our region. Winds will also be increasing from
the southwest behind the front so have posted a Lake Wind Advisory
for much of the area from late morning through this early evening.
Some wrap-around moisture near the occluding sfc low just to our
north may allow clouds to linger a bit longer across our northern
zones along the I-30 corridor. High temperatures will average
around 70 degrees this afternoon in the wake of the front with
slightly cooler readings over our northern zones where cloud cover
will be slower to exit. Expect clearing to occur areawide later
tonight as sfc temperatures fall off rapidly after sunset this
evening with lows on Monday morning in the 40s at nearly all
locations.

The first week of May will get off to a very pleasant start as
temperatures begin to moderate back near normal for this time of
year as a more zonal flow pattern sets up aloft on Monday into
Tuesday. This will allow for mostly sunny skies and near perfect
springtime temperatures, especially on Monday with a warming trend
continuing through Tuesday with highs generally in the low to mid
80s for most of the region. By Wednesday, out attention shifts to
the next cold front moving through the Plains with the longwave
trough pattern digging across the eastern half of the country.
This will provide our next chance of rainfall from Wednesday into
Thursday with sharply cooler temperatures behind this cold front.
Highs on Thursday are expected to reach into the 60s to lower 70s
across the region as the upper level trough pattern becomes more
amplified across the eastern U.S. all the way south into the Gulf
of Mexico.

Below normal readings will continue through Friday with lows back
down in the 40s to near 50 degrees on Friday morning. A gradual
warming trend will commence heading into the weekend as the highly
amplified upper ridge begins to encroach on the mid-section of the
country. This will allow temperatures to return to near normal for
Saturday and Sunday with a beautiful weekend shaping up for early
May as highs reach back near 80 degrees with overnight lows in the
50s.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  49  80  56 /  30   0   0   0
MLU  72  51  78  54 /  80  10   0   0
DEQ  65  42  75  50 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  67  47  75  54 /  30   0   0   0
ELD  69  47  75  53 /  60  10   0   0
TYR  68  47  79  56 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  69  47  79  56 /  20   0   0   0
LFK  73  48  84  57 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for LAZ001>003-010-011.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153.

&&

$$

15



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