Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 172351
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
651 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18/00Z TAFS...ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
FOR THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING HRS. MOIST LVL AIRMASS AND A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND LINGERING
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HRS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
BEYOND 18/16Z WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS AND DAYTIME CU
BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE REGION REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ALOFT...WHILE
SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS. MEAN RH WAS HIGHEST
ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SO OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES LOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES EAST...AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPS WILL
PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD AGAIN. THEN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL INCREASE
POPS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
ONLY LOW POPS...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE BY THE TIME
THE SYSTEM REACHES THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
REACHES THE CWA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRY THE AREA OUT...
BRINGING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MORE SEASONAL HIGHS AND LOWS. THIS
FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST...OR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  68  92  70 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  71  92  67  92  68 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEQ  69  88  66  88  67 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  71  88  67  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  89  67  89  67 /  20  30  10  10  10
TYR  72  87  68  89  70 /  30  40  20  10  10
GGG  72  88  67  90  69 /  30  30  20  10  10
LFK  73  86  69  91  70 /  30  50  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09



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