Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 070323
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1023 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR BOUNDARY EDGING EASTWARD WITH A FEW TWEAKS TO SHORT TERM POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR MOSIACS AND OUR 88D SHOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM
TEXARKANA...TO ALEXANDRIA DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS STILL AND PERHAPS JUST PAST MIDNIGHT TO 06Z. OTHERWISE
GOING FORECAST VERY CLOSE TO LATEST HOURLY ELEMENTS. NEW NAM AND
HRRR SHOWING WESTERN QPF EDGING INTO OUR CWA AROUND 12Z AND MAINLY
WEST WHERE 20S BECOME 40S AT 7AM. NO OTHER APPRECIABLE CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AS AN ELEVATED CU
FIELD WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF E TX/WRN LA/SE OK/SW AR. STILL
SEEING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A COUPLE OF
OUTFLOW BNDRYS OVER PORTIONS OF NE TX/EXTREME NW LA /JUST S AND W
OF SHV/...WITH OTHER ISOLATED -SHRA OVER DEEP E TX NEAR LFK. THESE
SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT
COULD RESULT IN STRONG TURBULENCE AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
SHOULD SEE LOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AFTER 06Z OVER E TX/WRN LA...AND
SHIFT N INTO SW AR/SE OK THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. CIGS MAY BECOME IFR
OVERNIGHT AS WELL MAINLY OVER E TX...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK/SW AR/WRN LA. SSE WINDS 5-10KTS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME S AND INCREASE TO 8-12KTS AFTER 15Z...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20KTS OVER E TX. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENCE IS STILL THE FAVORED FORECAST METHOD FOR THE TIME
BEING AS OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WITH A SLOWLY EJECTING UPPER TROF OUT ACROSS THE
PLAINS WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER MUCH OF THE
SERN STATES. THIS SETUP CONTINUES TO FAVOR MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN HALF OF OUR REGION WHERE MORE LIFT IS
OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROF IN ADDITION TO SOME WEAK
UPPER DIVERGENCE. THIS COMBINATION IS CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER NE TX...SE OK AND THE ADJACENT AREAS
OF SW AR. MORE SHWRS HAVE BEGUN TO CREEP NWRD TOWARD TOLEDO BEND
COUNTRY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SO PARTS OF NW AND N CNTRL LA MAY
GET IN ON THE ACTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION
SHOULD MOSTLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS KEPT
OVER OUR FAR WRN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY COME LATER ON THURSDAY AS
A SHORT WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION...MAINLY OVER THE NW EDGE
OF THE CWA. BUT OVERALL...THE FORECAST DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
CHANGING MUCH UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT DRIVING
SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE
FRONT LIKELY STALLING SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...HAVE HELD POPS OVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD PRIOR
TO THE FRONT ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  84  69  85 /  20  30  20  20
MLU  65  86  67  87 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  65  81  68  82 /  20  30  30  30
TXK  66  83  68  83 /  20  30  20  30
ELD  65  85  68  85 /  20  20  10  20
TYR  68  83  69  84 /  30  30  20  30
GGG  67  84  69  85 /  30  30  20  30
LFK  69  86  70  87 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15/19



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