Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 231858
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
158 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AVIATION...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND MAY NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO REDUCE
SURFACE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 6 STATUTE MILES. EXPECT TO SEE VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT
24/18Z FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA STARTING OUT AROUND 15 KFT
LOWERING TO AROUND 7 KFT AND ARRIVING AROUND 4-5 KFT. LOOKS TO BE
LATER INTO THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN CLOUD COVEAGE DECREASES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VBARIABLE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWRD ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY
LIGHT SHWRS OVER PARTS OF SE OK/SW AR/NE TX. HOWEVER...THE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THESE SHWRS TO DIMINISH OVER TIME AS THE TROF
ENCOUNTERS SOME VERY DRY AIR BELOW 15KFT PER THE 12Z SHV RAOB.
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE
THROUGH THE MIDDAY TIMEFRAME WITH THE TROF LIFTING NWRD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE CHANCE FOR SHWRS ENDING. FOR THE UPDATE THIS
MORNING...ONLY MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE SKY GRIDS TO INCREASE
COVERAGE TO THE EAST AS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS TO THE
WEST AS THE UPPER TROF EXITS. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST WITH MOVMNT OF
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EAST TX/SE OK. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE REACHING
THE GROUND...SO WILL INCLUDE ISOLD MORNING SHOWERS FOR THESE
SECTIONS OF AREA. THEREAFTER..CONTINUED DRY LOW LVL AIR ADVECTING
SWWD INTO AREA...AND BUILDING RIDGE INTO TX...WITH BOTH INTERACT
TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS 590 RIDGE
BUILDS INTO EAST TX...WILL SEE AFTN HIGHS THIS WEEKEND MAINLY IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF AREA...WITH A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST WITH NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS MARGINAL
AND WILL KEEP ALL POPS ISOLD FOR NOW...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STGR
LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW TSTMS ACROSS
AREA INTO MID WEEK DURG EXTENDED PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  49  78  55  85 /  10  10  10   0   0
MLU  72  46  76  52  85 /  10  10  10   0   0
DEQ  72  49  79  54  85 /  20  10  10   0   0
TXK  72  50  78  56  85 /  20  10  10   0   0
ELD  71  45  76  53  84 /  10  10  10   0   0
TYR  76  53  81  58  87 /  20  10  10   0   0
GGG  75  50  79  58  86 /  20  10  10   0   0
LFK  77  49  80  55  87 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




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