Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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614
FXUS64 KSHV 140052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
652 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 14/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS STILL HOLDING ACROSS OUR TERMINALS
TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD BUT THAT WILL BE CHANGING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT 4-5KFT CIGS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION TO LOWER
TO MVFR CATEGORY THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING...BEGINNING IN E TX AND
EVENTUALLY EXPANDING INTO N LA AND S AR SITES AFTER DAYBREAK. VSBY
CONCERNS WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLD WITH THE LFK TERMINAL POSSIBLY
SEEING SOME RESTRICTIONS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN IMPROVING
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. E/SE WINDS FROM 6-12 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON INTO SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...ALLOWING OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS TO
OCCUR AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD OR EVEN AFTER 15/00Z
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF RAIN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE ARKLATEX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PREDOMINATELY SUNNY
SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
THOUGH...WHICH IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS OUR EAST TEXAS
COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN PARISHES. THESE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY REMAINS OUR
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TONIGHT WILL BE A
MINI BATTLE BETWEEN THIS COLDER AIR SETTLING IN THE REGION AND THE
DEVELOPING CLOUD DECK. IN FACT...IF THIS CLOUD DECK IS ABLE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE SUNSET...BELIEVE IT WILL CREATE
ENOUGH INSULATION ALONG WITH THE WINDS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO OR EVEN WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW THIS
MORNING. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
NORTH CENTRAL WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDER THAN THIS
MORNING.

A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL DIG ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR VALENTINE/S DAY...THIS
FIRST WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ONLY BRING A FEW LIGHT AND SPOTTY
LOVE SHOWERS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE.
A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WASHINGTON/S BIRTHDAY...AS THE SECOND AND MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE
DIGS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL DO NOT LOOK THAT
IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN OUR DRY START TO THE YEAR...BUT WE
WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET. FOR NOW...THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH UPWARDS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS SECONDARY DISTURBANCE...BUT DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE
ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EACH DAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN THINGS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE ALIGNED...BUT
FEEL THAT IT MIGHT BE MORE WISHCASTING THAN FORECASTING. PALMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  64  55  68 /   0  20  60  70
MLU  39  63  54  65 /   0  20  60  70
DEQ  37  57  45  66 /  10  30  70  30
TXK  40  60  50  66 /   0  20  70  60
ELD  34  60  50  61 /   0  20  70  70
TYR  52  70  55  70 /   0  20  50  50
GGG  49  67  55  68 /   0  20  50  60
LFK  50  69  57  73 /   0  20  40  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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