Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 280503
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1103 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015


.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...WITH LOWER CLOUD CIGS JUST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF AREA STILL POSSIBLY ALLOWING CLOUD BASES TO FALL AT
KTXK...KTYR...AND POSSIBLY KGGG. LGT SNOW OR POSSIBLE FRZG DRIZZLE
AT THESE SITES OUT OF LOW VFR TO OCNL MVFR DECKS. HOWEVER...CLOUD
TOPS TOO LOW FOR MUCH IN WAY OF SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER...WITH SFC TEMPS REMAINING BELOW FRZG THRU AT LEAST
28/15Z...PRECIP MAY NOT MELT ON SURFACES THRU MID TO LATE MORNING.
SOME BINOVC POSSIBLE WITH DRY SLOTTING ALOFT SAT AFTN.
HOWEVER...RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM WEST AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO AREA...WITH LGT RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NE TX AFTER 01/00Z. SFC
WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY NE-E AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE AREAS OF -SN WHICH AFFECTED THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED AS OF MID EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PORTIONS OF MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW
AR...WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE -SN CONTINUING TO FALL...RESULTING IN
REDUCED VSBYS. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED VARIOUS REPORTS OF FLURRIES
ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...WHICH CONTINUE TO FALL
BENEATH THE RADAR BEAM. HOWEVER...MOST CONCERNED ABOUT PORTIONS OF
E TX TONIGHT...WHERE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE
AREAS OF -FZRA/IP DEVELOPING BETWEEN ACT AND PSN/ATHENS...SHIFTING
NE. THIS IS ALONG A BUILDING 850MB THETA-E RIDGE NICELY DEPICTED
BY THE 00Z WRF...WHICH EXPANDS NE INTO NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND N OVERNIGHT...WITH POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A -FZRA/IP MIX AS FAR N AS I-30 IN
NE TX THROUGH 12Z...WITH -SN STILL POSSIBLY FARTHER N ACROSS SE
OK/SW AR. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EXTENT OF THE DRIER AIR
FARTHER E...WHICH HAS REALLY DONE A NUMBER ON THE -SHSN THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY AND LIMITED GROUND ACCUMULATIONS. STILL
THOUGH...AT LEAST MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER COUNTY AR HAVE
REPORTED SLUSHY ROADS...WITH THIS ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL SFC TEMPS ARE
ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE SMITH/WOOD/UPSHUR AND THE 4 SMALL I-30 COUNTIES FOR
-FZRA/IP...AND EXPANDED THE COMPLETE ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. AREAS AROUND/E OF ACT HAVE REPORTED ICY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS A RESULT OF THE -FZRA...WITH UP TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
THE -FZRA EXPANDS NE. THE TRANSITION FOR -SN TO -FZRA/IP SHOULD
BEGIN AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...WITH THE ICING THREAT
ENDING BY 18Z.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST MIN TEMPS HERE PER THE
CURRENT OBS.

ZONE UPDATE/ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  31  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  30  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  20  30  10  50  50
TYR  29  45  42  59  48 /  40  40  30  50  50
GGG  30  48  43  61  49 /  30  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136.

&&

$$






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