Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 011109
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
609 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A 1033MB HIGH IS TOO FAR NORTH IN N MO WITH STILL BREEZY SURFACE
CONDITIONS IN OUR FOUR STATE AREA FOR MANY FREEZING READINGS IN
THE CURRENT WARNING AREA. MUCH OF THIS COLD AIR IS COMING IN THE
BACK DOOR ANYWAY. WE STILL HAVEN/T BOTTOMED OUT...BUT IDABEL OK
AND DE QUEEN AR ARE AT FREEZING ADN FOR THE LAST TWO HOURS WITH
CALM WINDS. SO WE CAN CHECK THOSE SITES OFF THE FUTURE FREEZE
WARNING ISSUANCE FOR THIS FALL. SPEAKING OF WHICH...A NEW WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MAINLY THE OUACHITA AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FOR THE DAYLIGHT STANDARD TIME FRAME OF 2 AM TO 8 AM
SUNDAY. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE FULLY EXPANDED OUT AND CENTERED
OVER KT/TN BY 12 TOMORROW. THE LOWER ELEVATION DELTA AREA WILL SEE
THE GREATEST CHILL TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS WITH A GOOD
AREAS OF FROST LIKELY FOR EVEN SOME MID 30S WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE OVER OUR WESTERN HALF. THE MICRO METEOROLOGICAL PROCESS
OF EVAPORATING AND FORMING DEW ALLOW FOR THAT NEEDED ADDITIONAL
COOLING TO OCCUR...THUS ALLOWING DEW TO BECOME FROST ON THE
GROUND...SO A GOOD IDEA...IF NOT BETTER IDEA TO PROTECT PLANTS
ALMOST AREA WIDE. KEEP IN MIND OUR SENSOR ARE NOT ON THE
GROUND...BUT AT LEAST 2 METERS UP. IN ADDITION...THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOISTENING FROM BELOW WITH GREEN EVAPOTRANSPORATION AND SHADED
AND STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST SOIL AND OUR MANY LAKES...RIVERS AND
BAYOUS DURING TODAY AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE BIG WARM UP IS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR THE NEW
WORK WEEK AND AS THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT DRIFTS THE WET STUFF INTO
THE PICTURE FOR OUR ELECTION DAY. WE ARE STILL IN MUCH NEED
RAIN...BUT THE ANNUAL DEFICIT WILL GAIN GROUND WITH SOME ONE TO
THREE INCH TOTALS PER WPC 5 TO 7 DAY TOTAL INTO THE EARLY NOVEMBER
BUCKETS. THE MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE LATE PERIOD WITH GFS DRY AND
EURO WET. OBVIOUSLY HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS AND
SHOULD HAVE CLARITY IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. FOR NOW MAV/MEX BLENDED
INTO THE LOW CONFIDENCE LONG RANGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  34  66  43  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
MLU  56  31  63  40  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  58  29  63  37  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
TXK  56  33  63  42  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  56  29  62  38  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  62  35  69  50  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  61  33  67  44  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  63  33  68  47  77 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ051-060-061-072-073.

LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ004>006-014-021-022.

OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

$$

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