Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 290805
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
305 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO RETURN FROM SE TX AND EASTERN LA
THIS MORNING PER IR IMAGERY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH
MOVED INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY HAS STALLED ACROSS NE TX AND
SW LA AND WILL LIKELY WASH OUT LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS UPWARDS OF
15 MPH WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NE TX
INTO SE OK. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS REGION BEGINNING THE ADVISORY AT 15Z AND RUNNING IT THROUGH
21Z.

UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...SLOWLY MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS
EVENING. WEAK LIFT WITH INCREASING PVA AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TONIGHT. GFS BACKDOORS THIS BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...INTO N LA WHILE THE NAM STALLS THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF
THE AR/LA BORDER. KEPT POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL AND OR WASH OUT SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA DURING THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE
SOUTH WINDS RETURN AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH COVERAGE NO MORE THAN LOW
END CHANCE VARIETY THROUGH THESE PERIODS.

FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT MOVES OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED IN THE
LATEST 00Z PROGS COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH UPPER FORCING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
AREAWIDE ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. TROUGH PULLS
OUT EAST OF OUR REGION LATE WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST FOR THU. WHILE BROAD SCALE LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
NORTH OF OUR REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT COULD RESULT IN MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY
FRIDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANY PATCHY BR MAY BE OVERRUN BY
SOME PATCHY STRATUS LOW DECKS MOVING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY 14-16Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TO 10-20 KTS WITH SOME 20 PLUS GUSTS.
OUTLOOK IS FOR SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS AFTER 31/06Z AND INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. ATTM OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE LIGHT SW...VEERING TO W THEN NW
BY 6KFT- 10KFT THEN INCREASING TO 20-50KTS. LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT IS
LIKELY INTO THE NEW WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  61  74  61 /  10  20  30  20
MLU  80  59  73  57 /  10  30  30  20
DEQ  76  55  72  57 /  10  40  30  30
TXK  77  57  72  59 /  10  40  30  30
ELD  78  56  72  57 /  10  40  30  30
TYR  84  62  75  62 /  10  20  30  20
GGG  82  62  75  62 /  10  20  30  20
LFK  85  64  81  62 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

24/13


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