Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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724 FXUS64 KSHV 302006 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 306 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 The latest water vapor imagery indicates a rather broad area of mid and upper level dry air from the Southern Plains into the Southeast CONUS. With a surface ridge moving farther east tonight while a lee surface trough strengthens over the High Plains, low- level moisture will begin to gradually increase. This should result in more low clouds during the early morning hours of Wednesday. Patchy fog will also be possible but current thinking is increased surface wind speeds and increased low-level cloud cover may limit the potential for dense fog as compared to Tuesday morning. A weak disturbance in the zonal flow aloft will provide the potential for at least a isolated showers or thunderstorms on Wednesday. The first opportunity will be limited to portions of Southeast Oklahoma and extreme Northeast Texas Wednesday morning. However, rain chances will spread southward during the afternoon. There may be a brief lull in the rain chances early Wednesday evening, but the flow aloft will quickly become more southwesterly and will amplify resulting in a rapid increase in deep layer moisture. A broad area of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop from Kansas southward into Texas ahead of a cold front and dryline. These storms should move into the area after midnight Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Strong large scale forcing and abundant deep layer moisture may result in locally heavy rainfall, especially across Deep East Texas. Severe weather chances appear low at this time. CN && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing Thursday morning, especially across Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, East Texas, and portions of Western Louisiana. Vertical ascent is expected to be quite strong during the day Thursday as a shortwave trough moves east-northeast across the forecast area. Combined with precipitable water values over 2 inches, locally heavy rainfall is likely, particularly south of Interstate 20 across East Texas and into Western Louisiana. Thursday`s convection is expected to be well ahead of the cold front, and more showers and thunderstorms are likely as the front moves into the area on Friday before stalling north of Interstate 20. The heaviest rainfall rates are generally expected on Thursday, but the threat of heavy rain should finally diminish Friday afternoon as the front begins lifting back northward into Oklahoma and Arkansas. The remainder of the long-term forecast will remain quite unsettled. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist and a series of weak perturbations in the flow will keep chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast Friday and Saturday. Rain chances may increase across the northwest half of the area on Sunday as a stronger shortwave trough lifts northeast across Texas and Oklahoma. Deep southerly flow will provide plenty of warm air advection and moisture to fuel convection. Despite the persistent rain chances, during the weekend, the strong warm air advection will keep a warming trend in place. Daytime high temperatures should be well into the 80s and possibly into the lower 90s early next week. With the rainfall and wet soils, very humid conditions can be expected to accompany the heat. CN && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 For the ArkLaTex terminals, MVFR at LA sites, but all others have finally improved. High pressure still has toe hold at KAEX with moisture extending NW along the Red River valley into KSHV. Very light/calm wind E of I-49, but return flow S/SE is into E TX with mid 80s already. We should dry the soil much today and BR tmrw will be much shorter lived with more of a low cloud event likely than ground FG. We will trend back to p.m. convection to end the work week and this wknd as cold fronts park over AR Fri and Mon. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 63 87 70 78 / 0 10 20 90 MLU 62 87 66 80 / 0 0 10 60 DEQ 62 85 64 75 / 0 10 30 90 TXK 64 85 68 77 / 0 10 30 90 ELD 61 86 64 77 / 0 0 10 70 TYR 66 85 68 79 / 0 30 60 90 GGG 65 85 68 78 / 0 30 40 90 LFK 65 85 69 81 / 0 40 30 70 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...24