Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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AXUS74 KSHV 072245
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ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-090000-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
545 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

...THE PROLONGED HEAT WAVE AND LACK OF RAINFALL THROUGHOUT JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER EXCESSIVE AND NEAR RECORD RAINFALL DURING THE LATE SPRING AND
EARLY SUMMER OF 2015, A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
RESULTING IN A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF JULY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. THIS
DEVELOPING FLASH DROUGHT IS A SHORT TERM DROUGHT THAT HAS AFFECTED
PRIMARILY AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN RAPIDLY DRYING
SOILS AND STUNTED GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF CROPS AND PASTURES,
REQUIRING THE PERSISTENT NEED FOR IRRIGATION. THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES SINCE THE THIRD
WEEK OF JULY HAS ALSO RESULTED IN RAPID EVAPORATION OF THE TOPSOILS,
WITH THE 4 INCH SOIL TEMPERATURE ONLY BRIEFLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 80S.
IN FACT, MANY LOCATIONS IN EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA EXPERIENCED
ONE OF THEIR TOP TEN HOTTEST AND DRIEST JULYS ON RECORD.

AS A RESULT, SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MARION
AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN EAST TEXAS, WITH MODERATE (D1) DROUGHT
CONDITIONS HAVING QUICKLY DEVELOPED OVER FRANKLIN, TITUS, CAMP, MORRIS,
CASS, PANOLA, RUSK, NORTHERN NACOGDOCHES AND SHELBY, AND CHEROKEE
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS CADDO AND NORTHERN DESOTO PARISHES IN NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST TEXAS...MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA, MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND ALL OF NORTH LOUISIANA.
MULTIPLE COUNTY BURN BANS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS EAST TEXAS,
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND NORTH LOUISIANA, WITH ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AND
PARISHES LIKELY BEING ADDED TO THIS LIST IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS THESE
VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
AUGUST.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND VERY HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT JULY
AND THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST HAS RESULTED IN RAPIDLY DRYING TOPSOIL
MOISTURE AND A DECREASE IN POND AND CREEK LEVELS. GRASSES THAT HAD BEEN
EARLIER CUT THIS SUMMER WERE NOT GROWING BACK, WITH THE EXPOSED GRASSES
RAPIDLY BROWNING. CORN WAS A COMPLETE LOSS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS,
WITH MANY OTHER VEGETABLES SUFFERING FROM THE DRY CONDITIONS.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR CASS, MARION, HARRISON, PANOLA, GREGG, SMITH,
CHEROKEE, ANGELINA, AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EAST TEXAS. IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS, BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE RIVER, HOWARD, HEMPSTEAD,
MILLER, LAFAYETTE, AND UNION COUNTIES. IN NORTH LOUISIANA, BURN BANS ARE
IN EFFECT FOR NATCHITOCHES, JACKSON, LINCOLN, OUACHITA, CALDWELL, AND
LA SALLE PARISHES. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION,
AND ADDITIONAL BURN BANS ARE LIKELY UNTIL MORE WIDESPREAD, WETTING RAINFALL
IS OBSERVED.

CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS.
NO WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT, AS MANY LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE POOL STAGE IN WAKE OF THE EXCESSIVELY HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT FELL DURING THIS PAST SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...
RAINFALL DURING JULY WAS LIMITED TO THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE MONTH,
AS WELL AS JULY 30TH BEFORE THE VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS SET IN. MONTHLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES (WHICH FELL EARLY IN JULY)
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST AND DEEP EAST TEXAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA,
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND MUCH OF NORTH LOUISIANA. MONTHLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
MUCH LOWER OVER THE REMAINDER OF EAST TEXAS, WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM NO
MEASUREABLE RAIN HAVING FALLEN UP TO A HALF INCH. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE JULY
MONTHLY RAINFALL, THEIR DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL, AND PERCENTAGES OF NORMAL, FOR
SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION:

CITY:               JULY 2015          DEPARTURE          PERCENTAGE
                    RAINFALL          FROM NORMAL          OF NORMAL

SHREVEPORT LA         0.59              -3.06                 16%
NOTE: JULY RANKED AS THE 11TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1872.

MONROE LA             1.21              -2.36                 34%
NOTE: JULY RANKED AT TIED FOR THE 9TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD (WITH 1982).
      RECORDS SINCE 1930.

NATCHITOCHES LA       1.43              -1.92                 43%
NOTE: JULY RANKED AS THE 13TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1923.

JENA 4WSW LA          1.42              -3.47                 29%

TEXARKANA AR          2.50              -0.94                 73%

EL DORADO AR          2.01              -1.55                 56%

HOPE 3NE AR           4.64              +0.99                127%

DEQUEEN AR            2.70              -1.08                 71%

MT. PLEASANT TX       0.94              -2.57                 27%

TYLER TX              0.04              -2.60                  2%
NOTE: JULY RANKED AT THE 3RD DRIEST JULY ON RECORD (BEHIND 1924/1947 AT
      0.00 INCHES AND 0.02 INCHES IN 1946/1993). RECORDS SINCE 1983.

TYLER TX              0.00              -2.75                  0%
(COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION)

LONGVIEW TX           0.15              -2.74                  5%
NOTE: JULY RANKED AT THE 11TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1902.

MARSHALL TX           0.04              -3.45                  1%
NOTE: JULY RANKED AS THE 5TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1893.

LUFKIN TX             0.93              -2.12                 30%
NOTE: JULY RANKED AT THE 13TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1907.


SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS:
MT. HERMAN            1.45              -2.21                 40%
BROKEN BOW            2.71              -0.95                 74%
IDABEL                1.04              -2.53                 29%


THIS PROLONGED HEAT WAVE THROUGHOUT JULY ALSO RESULTED IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE JULY MONTHLY
TEMPERATURES, THEIR DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL, AND HOW THEY RANKED AS WARMEST
JULYS ON RECORD, FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION:

CITY:                JULY 2015         DEPARTURE        JULY RANKING
                   AVG. TEMPERATURE   FROM NORMAL         (TOP 20)

SHREVEPORT LA           86.1             +3.1               T9TH

MONROE LA               84.6             +1.6               11TH

TEXARKANA AR            84.8             +2.6               17TH

EL DORADO AR            83.5             +1.8

DEQUEEN AR              82.3             +1.2

TYLER TX                86.5             +3.6                N/A
(DUE TO EXCESSIVE MISSING DATA THROUGH THE TYLER CLIMATOLOGICAL HISTORY,
THE JULY RANKING WAS NOT AVAILABLE. HOWEVER, JULY WILL LIKELY RANK WITHIN
THE TOP 10 WARMEST JULYS ON RECORD.)

LONGVIEW TX             86.9             +3.5                8TH

LUFKIN TX               84.9             +2.1               T13TH


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPP VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY, BEFORE RETREATING SLIGHTLY WEST AWAY FROM THE REGION BY MID AND
LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTH
SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT DRIER AIR (LOWER HUMIDITIES) TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION NEAR
THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN ON AVERAGE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THUS, DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST-SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER, ISSUED BY
THE CLIMATE PREDICITION CENTER (CPC), INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES FOR SEEING
ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR NORMAL, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF THE
FOUR STATE REGION. THE THREE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH OCTOBER
ALSO INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES FOR SEEING BELOW NORMAL, NEAR NORMAL, OR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE. IN OTHER WORDS, THERE IS NO SKILL LEVEL OR
CLIMATOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN FORECASTING TEMPERATURES OR PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING EL NINO IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS LATER THIS FALL
AND WINTER, WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH DROUGHT CONDITIONS OR END THE DROUGHT
COMPLETELY.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
RESERVIOR AND LAKE POOL STAGES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, EAST TEXAS, SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS, AND NORTH LOUISIANA REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL POOL
STAGE AFTER THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT FELL DURING THE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER.
A SLOW RECESSION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF AUGUST GIVEN THE
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES, INCREASED EVAPORATION, AND LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED.
SOME SMALLER CREEKS AND BAYOUS HAVE FALLEN BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FIRST WEEK
OF AUGUST, WITH NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS MONTH.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY MID TO LATE
AUGUST.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT HOMEPAGE: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SHV
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM: WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER: WWW.DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
LA OFFICE OF STATE CLIMATOLOGY: WWW.LOSC.LSU.EDU
TX OFFICE OF STATE CLIMATOLOGY: WWW.MET.TAMI.EDU/OSC
OK CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY: HTTP://CLIMATE.OK.GOV
UNITED STATE GEOLOGICAL SURVEY: HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURAL COMMUNICATIONS-AGNEWS: HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU
LA DEPT. OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY: HTTP://WWW.LDAF.STATE.LA.US/
TEXAS FOREST SERVICE: HTTP://WWW.TEXASFORESTSERVICE.TAMU.EDU
ARKANSAS FIRE INFO: HTTP://WWW.ARKFIREINFO.ORG
OKLAHOMA FORESTRY SERVICES: HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV/WILDLAND-FIRE
LSU AG CENTER: HTTP://WWW.LSUAGCENTER.COM

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FACILITATED COLLABORATION AMONGST VARIOUS
AGENCIES...INCLUDING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...STATE
CLIMATOLOGISTS...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...AND THE U.S. DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FROM THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED
FROM NWS/FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...THE USDA...THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS...
USGS...TEXAS FOREST SERVICE...TEXAS INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER...
ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION...AND THE OKLAHOMA FORESTRY SERVICES.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
5655 HOLLYWOOD AVE.
SHREVEPORT LA 71109

PHONE: (318) 631-3669
EMAIL: SR-SHV.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

15/HANSFORD



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