739
FXUS62 KCAE 090625
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
225 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Potential for strong to severe storms continues through Friday
morning. Drier conditions return for the weekend before the next
chance of precipitation arrives by midweek. Expect temperatures
to be near average for much of the forecast period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest radar imagery indicates a couple of thunderstorm
complexes to our west; one is currently the South Carolina
Upstate/northeastern Georgia approaching the CSRA and western
Midlands and the other complex is just entering Kentucky and
Tennessee. These complexes are expected to affect the forecast
area this morning.

The first complex should be entering the local forecast area by
around 3 am and continue eastward. This complex has had a
history of producing severe weather as it has trekked across the
southern states. There is some question; however, if this will
hold together long enough to continue the severe threat. SPC
mesoanalysis indicates there is 500-1000 J/kg of mixed layer
CAPE and around 1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Bulk shear
values are around 40 kts as well. The hindering factor of
reaching the instability is the nocturnal inversion. Despite the
inversion, if the cold pool with the main line remains strong
enough, severe threat continues through around daybreak, mainly
for the northern half of the forecast area. At this time, the
highest threat for severe weather is for the western portions of
the forecast area. Damaging wind will be the main threat, with
hail and tornadoes being a lesser threat.

The second complex is forecast to move through the region around
midday. There is higher confidence that this complex will make
it through our area as this one is more tied to an approaching
cold front as well as some daytime heating. Again, damaging
winds will be the main threat with any storms that move through
the region. SPC keeps an Enhanced Risk (3/5) of severe weather
for the lower CSRA and a Slight Risk (2/5) for the rest of the
forecast area. After this line passes, relatively quiet weather
follows for the rest of the afternoon into the overnight with a
slight chance of showers and storms returning late tonight.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
One more potentially active convective day Friday ahead of the
advancing cold front. Guidance still seems to handle potential
MCS moving through south-central GA and into southern SC during
the morning hour and into the early afternoon. This may impact
the southern CSRA the most if it does develop as forecast and
moves through. Damaging winds would be the primary threat, with
hail also being possible. Additional thunderstorm development
possible late in the day over the northeastern Midlands as the
main upper trough axis swings through. By Friday night, the
drier air behind the front will finally be getting into the
area, ending the rain chances for the weekend. Saturday will be
dry and cooler behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Conditions look quite nice into Monday with high pressure across
the area. Rain chances do increase Monday night through
Wednesday ahead of a slow moving, closed mid/upper level low
progged to push into the eastern CONUS by the middle of next
week. Temperatures remain cooler through Tuesday, then warm back
up by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the early morning hours with
restrictions possible for the morning and early afternoon.

Mainly mid to high level clouds have moved over the region. A
cluster of showers and storms to the west are expected to move
through the northern portions of the area, mainly affecting CAE
and CUB. Thunderstorms may be observed at each of those
terminals around 10z or so, but confidence is low that the
activity will stay together to make it that far east. If it
does, expect the typical thunderstorm related restrictions.

A second cluster of showers and storms is expected to move
through from about 15z through 20z. Confidence is a bit higher
that thunderstorms will be nearby all TAF terminals during this
time frame, but the exact timing still needs to be worked out.
As confidence increases, will add appropriate tempo groups to
reflect such. After this cluster moves through, the remainder of
the TAF period is expected to remain dry and return to VFR.

Background winds are expected to become breezy from the west to
southwest from about 14z through 00z before diminishing.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Another day of convection and
associated restrictions on Friday is possible. Drier weather
with no restrictions likely for this weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$