Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
655 FXUS66 KSTO 072053 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 153 PM PDT Tue May 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Gusty north to east winds through Thursday. Widespread valley highs in the 90s by late week into this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Northerly winds have spread across the Sacramento Valley and surrounding terrain this afternoon, with gusts to around 15-25 mph. Offshore winds will continue for the next several days as NorCal will be in between ridging building to our north over the PacNW and a weak trough hanging back across southern Nevada into central California. Northerly breezes today will increase tonight- Wednesday morning as the pressure gradient tightens even further, bringing gusty north winds to the western Sacramento Valley and easterly winds to the mountain and foothills. Gusts of 35-45 mph will be likely across much of the western Sacramento Valley and gusts to 45-55 mph across the Sierra and portions of the foothills where a Wind Advisory has been posted. A brief somewhat `lull` in strongest winds is expected Wednesday afternoon/evening before additional vorticity waves will round the backside of the upper- low over Nevada Wednesday night into Thursday. This will allow for the pressure gradient to be reinvigorated and another period of strong north to east winds is expected. Easterly winds will linger in the mountains before the gradient begins to weaken by Thursday afternoon. Besides winds, the warming and drying trend will continue this week as Valley temperatures work their way up from the 70s today, to the upper 70s and 80s on Wednesday, and into the mid and upper 80s and locally in the low 90s on Thursday. By Friday, temperatures will likely be our first day this season of widespread highs in the lower 90s across the Central Valley (NBM probabilities are above 80 percent). Similar temperatures with highs in the low 90s for the Valley for Saturday as well. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)... Cluster analysis continues to show ridging as the dominant forecast feature, continuing our stretch of above normal temperatures and dry weather. Clusters show some uncertainty regarding the amplitude (strength) of the ridge in the Pacific creating a larger range of possibilities for afternoon temperatures late this weekend and early next week. Nonetheless, Saturday into early next week will see afternoon high in the upper 80s to mid 90s in the Valley with mainly 70s and 80s for the mountains and foothills. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions over interior NorCal with periods of gusty north to east winds over the next 24 hours. Gusts 15-25 kts across the Valley strongest near KRDD and KRBL thru 02z Wed. Gusts 20-35 kts develop 07z Wed and persists through 18Z Wednesday and into Thursday morning. Areas near the Sierra will see east- northeasterly gusts 20-30 kts 05z Wed thru 10z Wed, increasing to 30-45 kts through 18z Wed. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Thursday for Western portions of the Sacramento Valley, Delta Region, including Interstate 505 and portions of Interstates 5 and 80. Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Thursday for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada, Western Plumas County/Lassen Park, and portions of the Sierra Foothills, including the Feather River Valley. && $$