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000
FXUS64 KSJT 201728
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1228 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

As of 3 AM, scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring over
the northern Big Country, in an area of isentropic lift. With this
elevated convection, small hail is possible with a few of the
storms. A mid-level shortwave trough will move east across New
Mexico today, and into West Texas this evening. With the attendant
lift/upper support from the approaching shortwave trough into a
moist environment (precipitable water values 1 to 1.5 inches), a
more widespread rain event will unfold for our area mainly this
afternoon and early evening, but possibly developing around midday.
Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected
this morning. A larger and more organized area of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to develop just west of our area around
midday, and move east across our area this afternoon and early
evening, before exiting our eastern and southeastern counties early
tonight.

The convection is expected to be elevated, but mid-level lapse rates
will support a possibility of hail with the stronger storms. The
area generally south of a line from Brownwood to Water Valley to the
Panhandle of northwest Tom Green County is in a Marginal risk for
severe storms in the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. The main hail
concern is with the more organized area of storms which will move
through this afternoon. For today into early tonight, rainfall
amounts look to be generally between one-half inch and 1.25
inches, with localized amounts over 1.5 inches possible. Heavy
rain in a short period of time may result in street/roadway
flooding, and minor flooding of low-lying areas.

Temperatures will remain cool today and tonight, with cloudy skies
and northeast or north-northeast winds. Highs today are expected to
range from mostly the mid 50s in the Big Country, to the mid 60s in
our southern counties. Seeing indications in a few of the models
for these highs to be in the early to mid-morning hours, with
temperatures dropping off a few degrees and then remaining steady
through the rest of the day. Overnight lows tonight should be
mostly in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

On Sunday morning, the mid-level trough axis that will have brought
much-needed rain to west central Texas should move eastward to
the Mississippi Valley. This should bring rain chances to an end.
However, cloud cover and cool conditions should persist as a
surface high will settle in across much of central Texas and
reinforce the inversion already in place.

For Monday and Tuesday of next week, the surface high will move
eastward and generate southerly return flow.  Skies will clear out
and temperatures should warm back up into the 70s and 80s through
Wednesday.

By mid-week, models show the potential for another frontal boundary,
this one much weaker, to drop into north Texas, while an upper-level
shortwave trough approaches west Texas.  This could generate more
chances for showers and thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday.
However, there are significant timing differences between global
models with respect to the arrival of the upper level trough and
how far south the surface front will go. For now, rain chances
were kept fairly low until models get into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Thunderstorms continue to be widespread near KABI this afternoon,
with more storms developing near KSJT. Both of these sites will
see reduced visibilities and heavy rainfall at times through at
least mid afternoon. Between the storms, fog and drizzle continue
with IFR cigs. Farther south, IFR clouds with a little higher
visibility prevail. Latest CAMs show more shower and storm
development for those locations starting late afternoon and
continuing into the evening hours. For all sites, once the main
area of convection pushes through, still appears fog and drizzle
with IFR cigs will persist through the night and into the morning
hours on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     56  45  62  41 /  90  70   0   0
San Angelo  61  46  63  42 /  90  60   0   0
Junction    67  48  66  44 /  90  60   0   0
Brownwood   60  47  62  40 /  90  70   0   0
Sweetwater  55  45  60  43 /  90  60  10   0
Ozona       65  48  62  44 /  90  40   0   0
Brady       64  48  61  43 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...07