775
FXUS64 KSJT 271157
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
657 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 449 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...Severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon into tonight...

A potent mid/upper trough currently over the southwest states,
will lift northeast into the central/southern plains tonight and
early Sunday. Ahead of this system, a weak disturbance is expected
to generate thunderstorms along the dryline across west Texas
around daybreak, and lift northeast across portions of west
central, northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma through the
morning hours. Some model discrepancies exist regarding the
evolution of this activity, with the HRRR keeping most of the
storms north of the forecast area, while the NAMNST has storms
farther south into the Big Country and portions of the Concho
Valley. A very unstable airmass exists across west/northwest
Texas east of the dryline early this morning (SBCAPE`s 3000 J/Kg)
and deep layer shear is strong (40-50 kts). This environment will
support severe thunderstorms, with the primary risk being large
hail, although an isolated tornado is also possible. Activity this
morning is expected to lift east/northeast of the area by early
afternoon.

As large-scale ascent increases with the approaching trough,
additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east
of the dryline late this afternoon and early evening. A very
unstable airmass (CAPE`s 3000-3500 J/kg) and deep layer shear
of 40 to 50kts will support supercells initially, with storms
becoming more linear with time later this evening/overnight as a
Pacific front advances east across the area. All severe hazards
are possible, including large to very large hail, damaging winds
and tornadoes (some potentially strong). The greatest risk for
tornadoes will extend from the eastern half of the Big Country,
into north central Texas and Oklahoma, where a tornado outbreak
is possible. Farther south across the remainder of West Central
Texas, the primary hazards will be large to very large hail and
damaging winds tonight, but embedded supercells within the squall
line will have the potential to produce some tornadoes as well. In
addition to the severe weather, heavy rainfall is possible, which
may lead to some localized flooding, especially across eastern
portions. Thunderstorms are expected to end over far southeast
counties early Sunday morning, with skies clearing as the Pacific
front moves east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 449 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

After the aforementioned activity moves out to the east, a break in
the active weather pattern will ensue. Zonal flow will develop aloft
following the departure of the low pressure. We will generally see a
gradual warm up into the lower 90s through Tuesday. A series of
minor disturbances aloft may yield enough support for a few
thunderstorms for the middle part of next week. Otherwise, both the
GFS and ECMWF depict the same forecast for the most part giving a
fair amount of confidence in this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

MVFR ceilings will continue to develop across the area through
mid morning, with ceilings scattering out across the northern
terminals by late morning. Ceilings are expected to linger into
early afternoon across the southern terminals. Some brief showers
and thunderstorms are possible at from mid morning through noon,
but coverage should be limited. Thunderstorm will be possible at
KABI by late afternoon, with additional thunderstorms expected to
increase at all TAF sites late this evening into the overnight
hours. Severe storms are possible, with large hail, damaging winds
and possible tornadoes. Expect gusty south to southeast winds
through much of the period, diminishing late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     83  56  82  57 /  60  80   0   0
San Angelo  89  56  85  55 /  20  70   0   0
Junction    86  60  87  59 /  20  90  10   0
Brownwood   80  59  82  57 /  60  90  40   0
Sweetwater  86  57  83  58 /  50  60   0   0
Ozona       89  55  85  57 /  10  60   0   0
Brady       81  59  82  60 /  40  90  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...24