485
FXUS64 KSJT 121910
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
210 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Short range models indicate scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms developing towards sunrise, as an upper low over
Colorado moves east into Kansas this evening, bringing lift to
the region.

There is the potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm today
with 0-6km bulk shears of 30-40KTS. GFS MUCAPES also increase
from 500-1500 J/KG this morning to 2500-3000 J/KG along/east of of
Sonora to San Angelo to Sweetwater to Sweetwater this afternoon,
so even as lift weakens there will certainly more than enough
instability for a severe thunderstorm this afternoon. Most of West
Central Texas is an a marginal risk of severe storms today.

Some storms could also produce locally heavy rainfall/flooding
with precipital water values of 1.1 to 1.5 inches. Main area of
concern is Coleman and Brown counties, as those counties received
very heavy rainfall last week. Faster moving storms should limit
flood potential however. There is a slight risk of excessive
rainfall along and east of Throckmorton to Baird to Coleman to San
Saba line.

While shower and thunderstorm potential decreases significantly
this evening, an isolated thunderstorm (possibly severe) may be
ongoing for hour or so in extreme eastern counties as it moves
east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Expect mainly a dry and warmer forecast for early this week as 500
MB heights increase and our area is in the surface warm sector.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s Tuesday. The next upper
level disturbance is due in by middle of this week and at the
surface will see a dryline moving into our area by late Wednesday
afternoon and a weak cold front and dryline intersection in the
Trans Pecos by Thursday morning. Also, moderate/strong instability
will be over much of the area with some vertical wind shear. As a
result, expect a few rounds of scattered to numerous thunderstorms
Wednesday night through Thursday. The month of May is the peak of
severe weather season, so can not rule out a few severe storms.
Going with mainly medium chances of rain. Look for dry and warmer
weather Friday through Sunday, with highs mainly in the 90s next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

IFR/MVFR cigs are impacting all terminals this afternoon. Some
improvement to VFR is possible later this afternoon before another
potential round of MVFR/IFR ceilings tonight. Patchy fog or mist
will also continue to impact the terminals through the morning
hours on Monday. Finally, a few thunderstorms may develop near
KSJT in the late afternoon or evening but confidence in coverage
of these storms is too low to include a mention in the TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     63  84  58  89 /  20   0   0   0
San Angelo  61  90  58  95 /  10   0   0   0
Junction    66  93  60  95 /  10  10   0   0
Brownwood   65  85  57  87 /  20  10   0   0
Sweetwater  61  85  59  89 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       61  90  59  92 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       66  85  59  87 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...42