531
FXUS64 KSJT 052340
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
640 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Mainly a dry forecast the next 24 hours. Still could see a few
showers and storms develop along the I-10 corridor late this
afternoon but the bulk of any thunderstorm activity should
remain south of the area. Instability is rather weak due to
considerable cloud cover, so the threat for strong/severe
storms is low. Will maintain low POPs south of a Brady to
Ozona line this afternoon. May see some patchy fog develop over
southeast sections late tonight and early Monday morning, and
keep some patchy fog in the forecast over this area. Temperatures
will be mild tonight, due to plenty of stratus overnight into
Monday morning, with lows in the 60s.

On Monday, a negatively tilted shortwave trough will lift
northeast across the Rockies and into the central Plains by
Monday evening. A dryline will mix east and extend from northwest
Oklahoma, south across southwest Oklahoma and into central
potions of our forecast area by late afternoon. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected east of the dryline late Monday
afternoon and evening, with the greatest threat for significant
severe weather across Oklahoma into Kansas. Upper level support
will be much weaker farther south into the Big Country, but cannot
rule out a storm or two. Will keep POPs at 20 percent across far
northeast portions of the Big Country for now. Expect warmer
temperatures on Monday, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

An upper low will sit to our north for the first part of the week,
keeping us in near zonal flow aloft. These winds will bring in drier
air at upper levels and clearer skies. The clearer skies will allow
for increased solar heating. This combined with west/southwest winds
at the surface will support warmer temperatures for the first half
of the work week. A cold front will move through on Thursday,
bringing cooler temperatures for the northern half of the area on
Thursday and cooler temperatures for the whole area for Friday
through the weekend. Right now, the front looks mostly dry for our
area, with the exception of our southeastern counties where higher
moisture could help rain chances. Precipitation chances rise
slightly for the weekend, due to the return of southeasterly flow,
increased moisture, and a possible disturbance or two in the flow
aloft behind the upper level trough, but significant, widespread
rainfall is not expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

MVFR to IFR conditions are already in place across KJCT, KSOA, and
KBBD this evening per ASOS observations across the region. Areas
of fog are likely to develop across the I-10 corridor overnight.
Otherwise, skies should clear out across the region for tomorrow
evening. This will mark the end of the turbulent weather for a few
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     66  88  60  89 /  10  10   0   0
San Angelo  66  91  63  93 /  10  10   0   0
Junction    68  88  68  94 /  20  10   0   0
Brownwood   66  84  64  88 /  10  20   0   0
Sweetwater  66  90  59  89 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       67  89  64  91 /  10  10   0   0
Brady       67  83  67  89 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...41