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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 092150
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
350 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure building into the area will result in a
drying and warming trend which will continue through the remainder
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Utah remains under a northwesterly flow aloft this
afternoon, between a low pressure system exiting east into Texas and
high pressure building into the West Coast. A shortwave trough is
noted over the far northwestern CONUS, which will graze northern
Utah this evening. Clouds are increasing over northern Utah ahead of
this trough, and there may be isolated shower activity across the
northern Utah mountains through tonight.

The upstream ridge will continue to slowly build inland, leading to
dry conditions along with a continued warming trend. Expect
afternoon maxes to warm around 3-5 degrees tomorrow, another 5-10
degrees on Thursday as the ridge axis shifts overhead, culminating
on Friday with the warmest temperatures this week as increased
southwesterly flow results in deeper mixing. The Friday temperatures
are expected to trend 10-20 degrees above climatological normals,
with SLC potentially pushing 80 degrees. The NBM 25th to 75th
percentile of Friday`s max temperature at SLC ranges from 78 to 79
degrees. However, one thing working against warmer temperatures is a
weak disturbance that is progged to eject from the California/Baja
coast across southern Utah on Friday. This would be associated with
increased cloud cover and some high-based convection. As such, have
held back on going 80 degrees for now in the northern Utah valleys.

The pattern starts to shift over the weekend and into next week. On
Saturday, a closed low is likely to make its way onto the California
coast. Cluster analysis of ensemble forecasts shows more or less the
same pattern developing, with some slight differences in the
position of the closed low. However, as is the case with most closed
lows, there tends to be more forecast variability regarding its
track and evolution farther out in time. By 00z Monday, two clusters
comprising 65% of the members keep the low centered over California,
while the other two clusters with the remaining members show a
faster shift inland. As such, while there is a chance cooler air and
increased moisture arrives into Utah as early as Sunday, it looks
more likely to hold off until Monday, resulting in what could be a
pleasant weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Minimal operational concerns are forecast for the
KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period. Northerly upvalley
winds, with periods of variable flow, will prevail through the early
evening, transitioning to a southerly flow after sundown. Afternoon
cumulus buildups will decrease in coverage overnight.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected
across the area through the valid TAF period. Cumulus buildups
bringing BKN to OVC CIGs with bases around 6kft AGL around the UT/ID
border this afternoon will translate southward through the
overnight, but will dissipate by daybreak. Winds across northern
Utah and southwest WY will remain terrain driven, with winds across
the south taking a more predominant northerly direction. Any
stronger wind gusts in the area will subside after sundown.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/Webber

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
