829
FXUS61 KALY 110137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
937 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly cloudy and cool conditions with some lingering showers
expected mainly west of the Hudson River this evening into
tonight, with some clearing from around Albany south and east
overnight. Saturday looks to be mainly dry, especially for areas
from Albany south and east. Then an upper level low will bring
additional showers Saturday night into Sunday, with continued
below normal temperatures. Unsettled weather continues into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 937 PM EDT...A weak upper level disturbance continues to
track across the region for this evening, but it looks to be
exiting off to the east for tonight. Meanwhile, a lingering
surface trough remains in place west of the region over western
New York. Although there had been a bunch of diurnally-forced
showers earlier, these have largely dissipated now thanks to the
loss of daytime heating and just a few spotty showers remain
over the Adirondacks. Can`t rule out a few additional showers
into the overnight for western and northern areas thanks to the
nearby surface trough, but these look fairly spotty and brief,
so will keep POPs low for most areas.

Sky cover is very variable, with several clouds layers out there
at the moment. The loss of daytime heating should allow for
some of the cu/stratocu to start to diminish over the next few
hours. Also, some drier air working in from the northeast could
allow for some breaks for eastern areas overnight as well.
However, most spots (especially northern and western parts of
the area) will continue to remain mostly cloudy overnight, as
satellite imagery continues to show some layers of mid and high
level clouds around. For those hoping to view the northern
light, it`s rather uncertain, as there will be variable amounts
of cloud cover around, although since it won`t be totally
overcast, some viewing may be possible from time to time.

Lows overnight look to generally be in the 40s, although some
upper 30s are possible for eastern areas that see enough breaks
in the cloud cover.

Short wave ridging develops on Sat ahead of an approaching/deepening
upper low approaching from the Great Lakes. Subsidence
associated with the ridging should result in mostly dry
conditions, especially from the Capital District south/east much
of the day. As heights aloft start to fall as the trough gets
closer, chances for showers will gradually increase from west to
east during the afternoon to early evening hours for areas west
of the Hudson Valley. Despite the cool air mass in place, some
sunshine should help high temperatures reach the lower/mid 60s
in most valley locations, with 50s in the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned upper trough moves into the region Sat
night, with the core of the upper low tracking into western
NY/PA. This system will bring additional scattered to numerous
showers, spreading east across the area through the overnight
hours. With clouds/showers around, low temperatures will range
from upper 30s to upper 40s.

The upper low/trough consolidates over eastern NY into New
England on Sun, which will continue to result in areas of
showers pivoting around the circulation. Will continue to
mention high chance to likely PoPs through the first half of the
day. As the upper low tracks into western New England late in
the day, coverage of showers should tend to decrease. With more
extensive cloud cover and showers around compared to Sat,
temperatures will be cooler with highs only in the 50s to lower
60s.

The upper low shifts eastward off the New England coast Sun
night, with short wave ridging developing in its wake. This
should result in clearing skies with cooler low temperatures in
the upper 30s in the higher terrain to lower/mid 40s in lower
elevations.

Upper ridging already flattens out on Mon, while at the surface
a warm front will be quickly approaching from the west. So
chances for showers will gradually increase during the day with
the approach of the warm front. Depending on how much sunshine
can occur during the first half of the day, temperatures are
expected to moderate back to near normal levels (upper 60s in
valleys).

Will continue to mention mainly chance PoPs for showers Mon
night as the warm front progresses north/east across the area.
Lows will be milder than recent nights with upper 40s to mid
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Our region is expected to be in a warm sector with a SW flow
aloft developing, as an upper low tracks east across central
Quebec. At the surface, a cold front will be gradually pushing
eastward during the day. There should be enough forcing just
ahead of the front to result in likely showers, with perhaps
some thunderstorms depending on how much heating/instability can
develop.

The cold front pushes south/east across the area Tue night,
bringing additional showers. The front is then expected to stall
in vicinity of the northern mid Atlantic region. As an upper
trough moves into the central/southern Appalachians, a surface
wave of low pressure may develop along the stalled front. So
chances for showers could linger into Wed depending on the
eventual position of the front/wave. Will mention chance PoPs
for now until guidance comes into better agreement.

Thu now looks to be a dry day, as the front/wave move well
offshore and ridging develops both at the surface and aloft.
Temperatures could warm to slightly above normal levels given
sufficient sunshine.

The upper ridge axis shifts east of the area on Fri, as a
potentially strong system starts to approach from the upper
Plains states and Midwest. Guidance differs with the
timing/track this far out, so will go with chance PoPs for now.
If the pattern ends up more amplified, dry conditions may
persist through the day though.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR for all sites. Spotty light
showers across the region will be starting to diminish, although
a brief shower still can`t be ruled out for the late night hours
at KGFL/KALB thanks to a nearby surface trough. Still, any
shower looks to have a limited impact on flying conditions, so
will continue to mention VFR conditions through the overnight
with bkn cigs around 4-6 kft for all sites. Winds will be light
and variable overnight.

On Saturday, it will continue to be VFR. Clouds will continue to
be bkn around 6 kft, although some more breaks are possible for
southern areas near KPOU, with a period of just sct clouds
possible there around midday. South to southeast winds will be
5 to 10 kts on Saturday for all sites.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Frugis