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000
FXUS64 KEWX 172307 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
607 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Mostly cloudy skies are expected to persist across the eastern two-
thirds of the local area for the rest of this afternoon and evening.
For areas along the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau, breaks
in the cloud coverage are likely to continue from time to time
throughout the day. This will allow highs temperatures to reach the
low to mid 90s there while mid to upper 80s over locations to the
east.

Can`t rule out a light shower or two across the Rio Grande and
Coastal Plains areas through the middle of this afternoon. Then
later this afternoon into early evening, there is the potential for
isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Mexican
mountains and move over parts of the Rio Grande especially over the
central and southern parts of Val Verde County. However, convective
activity could spread to nearby locations along the Rio Grande.
Showers and storms come to an end late this evening. Overnight lows
are forecast to range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

The day on Thursday starts cloudy and muggy for most locations.
Patchy fog is expected for the morning commute for areas along and
east of Highway 83. High temperatures are forecast to reach the
upper 80s to low 90s along and east of Highway 281 with highs in the
mid to upper 90s along the Rio Grande.

As the day progresses, the weather conditions will begin change
around mid to late afternoon as isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop over parts of the Rio Grande and Hill Country
as a dry-line sits across west Texas and a cold front slowly pushes
over central Texas. Then, later in the afternoon into the evening
hours, storms are likely to grow in scale with the potential of
becoming strong to severe for portions of the southern Edwards
Plateau, and the Hill Country as several upper level disturbances
travel over central Texas/Hill Country. Main threats with stronger
storms are large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Can`t
rule out localized heavy rain over a few spots.

This activity should come to an end by late Thursday night
(midnight). Overnight lows are forecast to range from the low 60s
across the Hill Country to low 70s across the Coastal Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A cold front will likely be just north of the region beginning early
Friday morning. The southward progress of the front during the
daytime hours remains in question, with most of the models keeping
south central Texas in moist, southeasterly flow in the low-levels.
With plenty of zonal flow aloft to our north and the opportunity for
some lee-side troughing, will keep temperatures on the warm side for
now, with highs in the low/mid 90s along the Rio Grande to the upper
70s/near 80 in the Hill Country where the front may impact
temperatures. Some weak upper disturbances moving in from the west
will bring a low chance for afternoon showers and storms to the Rio
Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau. Low rain chances will
then spread eastward into the Hill Country Friday night into Saturday
morning as the front should begin a slow southward push. A stronger
southward push of the front is anticipated during the daytime hours
on Saturday as a reinforcing shot of surface high pressure moves
southward through the plains states. The slow moving frontal boundary
along with some continued upper disturbances moving in from the west
will result in increasing rain chances across all areas as we head
into Saturday evening and early Sunday morning. Moisture pooling
along the boundary will send precipitable water values into the
1.5-2" range across a large portion of the region. The setup appears
to favor some locally heavy rainfall during the Saturday evening/
early Sunday morning period, with guidance suggesting the Hill
Country, I-35 corridor mainly from San Antonio northward will be
favored for locally heavy rainfall. Would not be too surprised to see
some 2-3" rainfall amounts along and north of a Fredericksburg to
Austin to Lexington line.

A stronger push of cooler air will bring precipitation chances to an
end on Sunday. With northerly winds and cloud cover, highs will be
below normal, ranging from the lower 60s in the Hill Country to the
mid 70s along the Rio Grande. For the remainder of the forecast
period, expect a slow warming trend along with dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The primary concerns tonight will be the increasing chance for LIFR
ceilings at SAT and SSF, with an outside shot at AUS as well by the
08Z-11Z timeframe. Visby`s have been dropped to MVFR for now, but IFR
or LIFR visby`s are possible with the 03Z amendments and perhaps
VLIFR visby`s could materialize by tomorrow morning. As of now,
widespread +FG is not expected, but the chances for ceilings <500ft
are up to 40% at SAT and SSF per the latest gridded LAMP guidance.
For now, the greatest concern will remain the lower ceilings. Thunder
is expected the DRT terminal through 02Z before storms fizzle out
with loss of daytime heating. Improvement to VFR ceilings are
expected at all sites by 18-20Z Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  90  67  83 /  10  20  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  89  66  82 /  10  20  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  91  68  85 /  10  10  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            69  89  64  79 /  10  30  30  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  98  72  92 /  30  30  10  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  89  65  80 /  10  30  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             70  93  66  86 /  10  20  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  90  67  84 /  10  10  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  88  69  84 /  10  10  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  91  68  85 /  10  10  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           72  92  70  86 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...MMM