247
FXUS63 KFGF 042340
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
640 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- First chance of the season for organized thunderstorms
  arrives Monday/Tuesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Large upper trough in place across south central Canada/Northern
Plains, with the main upper low having pulled northeast away from
the area earlier today toward Hudson Bay. However two other
shortwave troughs continue to dig south and eastward through the
forecast area today and another currently upstream across southern
Saskatchewan. The one digging through ND/MN has been responsible for
the cloud cover today and scattered showers. Much of the cloud cover
now breaking up and becoming more cellular across the forecast area.
This suggests much of it will dissipate into the evening/overnight
hours. However there is a weak sfc reflection/low developing across
central ND which could allow some lingering cloud cover in that
region into the overnight hours and maybe a few isolated showers
hanging on a bit longer as well associated with that secondary wave
to the northwest. That wave however is expected to weaken and
washout as it quickly moves east into early Sunday. This should
allow for clearing skies with southerly winds and high pressure to
build into the region for much of Sunday as upper ridging builds in
aloft.

A developing southwestern US upper trough will be the next
weather-maker of note as we move ahead into the work week.
Little has changed in the overall setup from previous runs with
the negatively tilted trough setting up Monday and shortwave
ejecting northward. Still anticipate the greater threat of
severe potential to remain to the south of the forecast area,
but continued monitoring with timing could push that potential
further north. Southerly flow to increase ahead of that system
and will send winds pushing toward advisory criteria with H85
flow in the 30-35kt range, and mixed layer winds in the 30-39kt
range. Ensembles topped out in the 30 kts ranges as well, so
will have to assess for advisory in the coming shifts.

In general, another round of rain with the main wave lifting
northward through the area Monday into Tuesday. The main upper level
system then begins to shift with the upper level trough breaking
down and shifting east. A piece breaks off to the southwest, with
more northerly flow in place. Overall confidence in any precipitation
chances and dry period decreases, with a generally cooler pattern
expected for mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites.
Scattered to broken mid level cloud cover is expected to
diminish gradually this evening, with perhaps a very brief
period of MVFR CIGs just after sunset. There is a low chance for
patchy fog heading into Sunday morning, primarily around KDVL.
Look for winds to increase slightly Sunday morning through
around midday, then shift slowly to the south.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJB/JR
DISCUSSION...MJB/JR
AVIATION...Lynch