531
FXUS64 KJAN 060626
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
126 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Rest of tonight...

GOES East water vapor imagery indicate spoke of shortwave trough
axis ejecting out of the ArkLaTex into the ArkLaMiss region, west
of the MS River. Broad ascent, with a MCV, continues out ahead,
providing the impetus for some convective initiation of isolated-
scattered storms in the Hwy 82 corridor. Expect this to lift
northeast the few hours & dissipate around midnight at the latest.
MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg & mean bulk shear around 30kts in
the 0-3km & 0-6km layer, a few robust storms have developed in
this zone. A few additional strong storms are possible & can`t
rule out an isolated severe storm before it moves out of the area.
Southwesterly flow will persist but weaken as the shortwave
ejects across the Mid MS Valley overnight. HREF probs are much
less & confined to the extreme Hwy 98 corridor & Pine Belt but fog
can`t be ruled out. Moist southerly flow will keep seasonably
warm lows in the mid-upper 60s & another round of patchy fog
southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor. Probs are too low to
introduce any potential for patchy dense fog, but most probable
area of localized dense fog concerns would be in the extreme
southeast. Updates are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Tonight through Monday...

A short wave is kicking off scattered showers/storms across the
area this afternoon and this will continue into the evening hours.
A marginal risk continues, with the main risk being damaging wind
gust and hail. The storms will weaken and move north out of the
area through the evening hours, ending by late evening. Expect
partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight, with some patchy fog
possible across the Pine Belt Region. Lows tonight will be in the
mid 60s. Weak upper ridging and drier air will build across the
area on Monday, but there will continue to be isolated to
scattered diurnal storms Monday afternoon. Highs will climb into
the mid/upper 80s across the area. /15/

Tuesday through Sunday:

The pattern through at least Thursday will continue to support
chances for convection in our region. An upper-level low pressure
system wobbling over the Northern High Plains through the midweek
looks to shear out with a portion absorbed in the westerlies over
the Great Lakes Thursday into Friday and a portion cutting off from
the remaining trough over the Great Basin. Above normal heights with
a flat ridge retreat toward the southern Gulf of Mexico during this
time frame. This pattern should allow for a period of decent
westerly flow aloft over our forecast area (75+kts) with the
southern jet stream and resulting 30-50 kts of 0-6km shear through
Thursday. Disturbances in the flow aloft will interact with a hot
and humid air mass at the surface, with daytime heating leading to
over 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE daily. This is a favorable parameter space
for strong to severe thunderstorms around the region, especially if
disturbances are timed out to pass overhead during peak heating. A
Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms currently exists for Tuesday
afternoon in Arkansas and northern Mississippi, increasing to Slight
Risk for severe thunderstorms by Wednesday for much of the same
area. Flow becomes more boundary-parallel to a front dipping into
the region on Thursday, but favorable parameters indicate the threat
for severe weather will continue into Thursday as well - likely for
areas a little farther south around the Interstate 20 corridor or
closer to the Gulf Coast.

Additionally the westerly flow, increased wind shear, and high
moisture content to the air should lead to efficient rain producing
storms. Localized flash flooding will be a concern at times. For now
will continue to combine theses threats on a mid-week storms graphic
to highlight a period of possible severe weather and flooding
concerns. Details will come into better focus for the respective
threats as preceding events play out.  The afternoon highs before
this front will likely reach the lower 90s for portions of the are
through Thursday. A turnaround to cooler-than-normal temperatures
with building high pressure after the front will bring relief for
the weekend. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Have maintained forecast for low stratus and potential fog
through early morning in this persistent, warm/humid, southerly
flow pattern. The greater threat for LIFR category ceilings/vsby will
be over southeast portions of the area, but all sites should
observe sub- vfr conditions until mixing brings improvements later
in the morning. VFR conditions should prevail Monday aftn/evng at
all sites. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  87  71  91 /  10  40  10  20
Meridian      68  89  70  93 /  10  40  10  20
Vicksburg     70  88  71  91 /  10  20  10  10
Hattiesburg   70  89  71  92 /   0  30  10  10
Natchez       69  88  71  91 /  10  20  10  10
Greenville    71  86  73  89 /  20  30  10  20
Greenwood     71  86  71  89 /  20  40  10  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

DC/DB/NF/EC