Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 281957
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
257 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Increasing south winds under a weak upper ridge will start a warming
trend with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s across eastern
Oklahoma through northwest Arkansas. It will not be as cold
tonight with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s across eastern
Oklahoma to the mid to upper 40s across northwest Arkansas.
However a backed south-southeast wind tonight around 5 to 10 mph
will produce a slightly cooler wind chills.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Our warming
trend will persist Friday through Monday as we remain under a broad
upper ridge and peak this weekend with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. With our return of southerly flow in the boundary layer,
we`ll see strong low-level jets fire up every night through Monday.
A surface low deepening lee of the Colorado will tighten the
pressure gradient across the area on Friday resulting in our south
winds sustained 20-25 mph. Although strong vertical mixing by late
morning could result in wind gusts at 30-40 mph (or higher based on
a more aggressive NAM solution), the upper ridge will start dirtying
up early Friday morning in the mid to upper levels with at least
broken sky cover by the afternoon. Although surface winds may
provide some dynamic mixing, a lack of solar heating may impede
strong mixing for the gusts.  Should we at least mix up to the 925
mb flow, wind gusts could approach advisory level especially if the
stronger NAM becomes the most accurate solution. Due to uncertainty,
will hold off on a Wind Advisory for Friday afternoon and see how
the next two model runs handle this.  It will be windy on Friday
with gusts but not confident that advisory criteria will be met at
this point in time.

Southwest flow aloft starts to strengthen Sunday night as a deep
amplitude Pacific-based trough starts approaching the Southern
Plains through the subtropical jet.  This system will bring a return
of rain/storm POPs across eastern Oklahoma Sunday night and into
northwest Arkansas after sunrise Monday morning.  Strong low-level
moisture should be in place when this system comes through producing
a sharp dryline across the Southern High Plains with surface dew
points rising into the 60s by Sunday in our area.  Forecasted
preciptable water values will be in the 1 to 1.5 inches range. Storm
POPs increase over 50% Monday afternoon to overnight as the upper
trough starts coming through.  Can`t rule out a potential for severe
weather on Monday as mid-level lapse rates steepen with up to
moderate surface-based instability and a deep-layer shear
environment.  However, too early for specifics and capping issues as
the surface boundary/cold front is not expected to push through
until Tuesday.  Did extend POPs through Tuesday afternoon across
northeast Oklahoma due to a potential of some wrap-around rain
behind this system as per the ECMWF solution although kept them very
low due to a drier GFS solution.  Not expecting any cold Canadian
air with this Pacific system behind Tuesdays cold front, but will
see a cooling trend dropping temperatures back down in the 60s for
highs early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

All terminals should remain under VFR conditions through the
entire forecast period. Surface winds will be southerly through
01Z at 10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts after which they will back
south-southwesterly at 5-10 kts. A strong low-level jet will fire
up tonight after 06Z out of the south-southwest between 40-50 kts
at flight level 020 which could result in low-level wind shear
over all terminals. Surface winds will start veering south-
southwest after 12Z while mixing around 16Z will start producing
gusts up to 30 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  77  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   48  77  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   53  76  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   48  77  51  79 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   46  74  53  75 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   46  73  55  75 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   50  74  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   48  73  55  76 /   0   0  10  10
F10   52  74  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   48  74  56  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99


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