405
FNUS73 KMQT 141230
FWSMQT

Spot Forecast for High Rollways...Michigan DNR
National Weather Service Marquette MI
830 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure settled over Lake Superior keeps skies
mostly sunny today and tonight before an incoming low from
the Northern Plains begins bringing mid to upper level cloud cover
over Upper Michigan Wednesday. That being said, expect conditions
to be fairly similar to what we saw yesterday, albeit with
temperatures being a little cooler today and min RHs a little
lower and around 35 percent in the interior east. A more rainy pattern
looks to come over us Thursday as the low pressure finally arrives.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........46 at ignition...Max 62.
RH..................68 percent at ignition...Min 35 percent.
Dewpoint............35.
33-foot winds.......Winds north at 9 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    North winds 5 to 12 mph.
20-foot winds.......North winds up to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 0-1300 ft
                    AGL increasing to 2500-4200 ft AGL in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Ventilation index...Fair (169) at ignition. Max...good (432.0).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......23.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........16  16  16  17  17  16  17  17  16
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............46  51  55  58  59  60  61  61  61
Dewpoint........36  35  35  35  34  34  34  33  33
RH..............68  56  46  42  39  38  36  35  35
33 ft wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
33 ft wind spd..9   9   9   10  10  10  12  12  12
20 ft wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   8   8   8   10  10  10
Wind gust.......12  12  12  11  11  11
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 2.5 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.9
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VIndx kt-ft/100.17  30  42  43  41  41  42  41  43
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 35.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Dewpoint............32.
33-foot winds.......North winds 5 to 12 mph.
20-foot winds.......North winds up to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......1700-3500 ft AGL decreasing to 200-1000 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (24.0-388.0).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......25.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........17  16  16  16  17  17  18  21  17  17  17  17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............59  57  53  48  43  39  37  36  36  36  35  35
Dewpoint........32  32  33  33  32  32  32  32  33  33  33  33
RH..............36  39  45  54  65  75  81  85  87  90  92  93
33 ft wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
33 ft wind spd..12  12  12  8   8   8   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 ft wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 ft wind spd..10  10  10  6   6   6   4   4   4   4   4   4
Wind gust.......12  12  12  10  10  10  7   7   7   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 3.0 2.4 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5
VIndx kt-ft/100.39  33  26  18  11  5   3   2   3   3   3   3
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 67.
RH..................Min 35 percent.
Dewpoint............36 increasing to 38 late in the morning.
33-foot winds.......Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming northeast up to 6 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1500 ft AGL increasing to 5100-5800 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (0.0-292.0).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......22 increasing to 24 late in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........19     7      7      10     15     29
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............36     44     55     62     65     66
Dewpoint........34     36     38     39     38     38
RH..............93     73     52     42     38     35
33 ft wind......NE 3   NE 3   NE 6   NE 6   NE 6   E 7
20 ft wind......NE 2   NE 2   NE 5   NE 5   NE 5   E 6
Wind gust.......6      6      6
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100 300    3000   4900   5100   5800
Haines index....5      4      4      4      4      4
VIndx kt-ft/100.0      3      24     29     21     23
Ceiling (kft)...24     22     24     25     25     25

$$
Forecaster...Michels
Requested by...Shingleton
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414107.0/MQT
.DELDT 05/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL shaloma@michigan.gov