Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
272 ACUS11 KWNS 120014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120014 NMZ000-120215- Mesoscale Discussion 0754 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Areas affected...Southern High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120014Z - 120215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and gusty winds this evening. Severe thunderstorm watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Upper trough over the Four Corners region is shifting slowly east this evening. High-level diffluent flow has overspread the southern High Plains which appears to be aiding isolated strong/severe convection that has evolved along a weak instability axis across eastern NM. Moist, southeasterly boundary-layer flow and extensive cloud cover is limiting buoyancy near the TX/NM border where surface temperatures are only in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Latest radar data suggests slow-moving supercells will gradually shift east across the instability axis and should weaken as this activity begins to ingest lower-buoyancy inflow. Until then, large hail is likely the primary risk, though gusty winds may also be noted. ..Darrow/Hart.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32310478 34670558 35520470 35010363 32330319 32310478