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Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS Missouri Basin, Pleasant Hill
Issued by NWS Missouri Basin, Pleasant Hill
000
FGUS63 KKRF 131845
ESPKRF
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
WATER SUPPLY STATEMENT
ISSUED IN COOPERATION WITH NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE
ISSUED: MAY 13, 2013
UPPER MISSOURI BASIN
THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN AS OF
MAY 1 WAS NEAR AVERAGE. THE SNOW PACK ABOVE TOSTON, MONTANA WAS
93 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. THE SNOW PACK BETWEEN TOSTON AND FORT PECK,
MONTANA WAS 103 PERCENT. THE SNOW PACK IN THE ST MARY AND MILK RIVER
BASINS WAS 126 PERCENT.
APRIL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN RANGED FROM
BELOW AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE. BASIN PRECIPITATION SUMMARIES FOR
THE MISSOURI BASIN INCLUDE: MILK ST. MARY, 186 PERCENT; MILK CANADA,
64 PERCENT; LOWER MILK, 44 PERCENT; ABOVE TOSTON, 117 PERCENT; TOSTON
TO FT. PECK, 81 PERCENT.
STREAM FLOW IN THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE UPCOMING SPRING AND SUMMER. THE
ST. MARY RIVER IS FORECAST TO HAVE 114 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
MAY-SEPTEMBER FLOWS. RUNOFF IS EXPECTED TO RANGE AROUND 84 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE FOR THE MISSOURI BASIN ABOVE FORT PECK, MONTANA.
OF THE FOUR MAJOR IRRIGATION RESERVOIRS IN MONTANA: LIMA RESERVOIR
HAD 115 PERCENT AVERAGE STORAGE, CLARK CANYON WAS HOLDING 97 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE WATER, GIBSON RESERVOIR HAD 63 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORED
WATER, AND FRESNO RESERVOIR HAD 123 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORED WATER.
THE MAJOR HYDROELECTRIC RESERVOIRS IN MONTANA (CANYON FERRY AND
FORT PECK) HAD MONTHEND STORAGE IN THE AVERAGE RANGE; 96 AND 97 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE WATER, RESPECTIVELY.
YELLOWSTONE BASIN
THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PACK IN THE YELLOWSTONE BASIN WAS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON MAY 1. THE SNOW PACK IN THE
UPPER YELLOWSTONE BASIN WAS 103 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL. THE SNOW
PACKS IN THE WIND, BIGHORN, AND SHOSHONE BASINS WERE 92, 115, AND 94
PERCENT OF AVERAGE, RESPECTIVELY. THE SNOW PACKS IN THE TONGUE AND
POWDER BASINS WERE 106 AND 130 PERCENT OF AVERAGE, RESPECTIVELY.
PRECIPITATION DURING APRIL WAS MAINLY ABOVE AVERAGE. THE UPPER
YELLOWSTONE RIVER BASIN RECEIVED 124 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE BASIN REPORTED 81 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
THE BIGHORN BASIN RECEIVED 147 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WHILE
THE WIND RIVER BASIN RECEIVED 179 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. THE LITTLE
BIGHORN - UPPER TONGUE BASIN RECEIVED 135 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
AND THE POWDER RIVER HAD 102 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST STREAM FLOW IN THE YELLOWSTONE BASIN IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE UPCOMING SPRING AND SUMMER. STREAM FLOW FOR
THE WIND-BIGHORN BASIN ABOVE ST. XAVIER, MONTANA IS FORECAST TO BE
ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. FLOW IN THE TONGUE BASIN IS EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. FLOWS IN THE POWDER RIVER ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOUT 100 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
MONTHEND STORAGE AT BOYSEN RESERVOIR WAS 102 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
STORED WATER IN BUFFALO BILL RESERVOIR WAS 125 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
MONTHEND STORAGE WAS 111 PERCENT OF AVERAGE AT BIGHORN RESERVOIR.
PLATTE BASIN
THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE BASIN WAS
91 PERCENT OF AVERAGE ON MAY 1. THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTH
PLATTE BASIN BELOW SEMINOE RESERVOIR WAS 91 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
THE SNOW PACK IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN WAS 94 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
APRIL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLATTE BASIN WAS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH PLATTE BASIN ABOVE SEMINOE
RESERVOIR WAS 217 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. IN THE NORTH PLATTE BASIN BETWEEN
SEMINOE RESERVOIR AND GUERNSY RESERVOIR PRECIPITATION WAS 153 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE. THE NORTH PLATTE BASIN BELOW GUERNSY RESERVOIR HAD 96 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH PLATTE
BASIN HAD 136 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WHEREAS THE PLAINS HAD
77 PERCENT OF AVERAGE APRIL PRECIPITATION.
STREAM FLOW IN THE PLATTE BASIN IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW AVERAGE
DURING THE UPCOMING SPRING AND SUMMER. RUNOFF FOR STREAMS
ABOVE SEMINOE RESERVOIR ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE 80 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
STREAM FLOWS FOR THE NORTH PLATTE BELOW SEMINOE RESERVOIR ARE FORECAST
TO BE 45 TO 65 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. STREAMS IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN
ABOVE SOUTH PLATTE, COLORADO CAN EXPECT 85 TO 95 PERCENT OF AVERAGE FLOW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN FLOWS ARE EXPECTED VARY FROM
85 TO 95 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
STORED WATER IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN WAS 87 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
ON MAY 1. STORED WATER IN THE NORTH PLATTE BASIN WAS AROUND 90
PERCENT OF AVERAGE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
WATER SUPPLY FORECAST
PLEASANT HILL MO
1040 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013
THESE FORECASTS WERE PROVIDED BY:
USDA NRCS NATIONAL WATER & CLIMATE CENTER
* - DATA CURRENT AS OF: MAY 09, 2013 01:06:50 PM
- BASED ON MAY 01, 2013 FORECAST VALUES
50% % OF MAX MIN 30-YR
FORECAST POINT PERIOD (KAF) AVG (KAF) (KAF) AVG
-------------- ------ ------ ---- ----- ----- -----
ST. MARY R NR BABB (2) MAY-JUL 385 113 445 325 340
MAY-SEP 450 114 520 380 395
LIMA RESERVOIR INFLOW (2) MAY-JUL 40 70 59 21 57
MAY-SEP 45 70 67 23 64
CLARK CANYON RESERVOIR INFLOW (2) MAY-JUL 34 53 93 -25 64
MAY-SEP 51 61 114 -12.4 83
BEAVERHEAD R AT BARRETTS (2) MAY-JUL 51 60 144 -5.0 85
MAY-SEP 69 62 181 4.0 111
BIG HOLE R NR MELROSE MAY-JUL 335 76 435 235 440
MAY-SEP 375 78 490 260 480
RUBY R RESERVOIR INFLOW (2) MAY-JUL 43 64 66 19.9 67
MAY-SEP 55 67 82 28 82
HEBGEN RESERVOIR INFLOW (2) MAY-JUL 280 92 330 230 305
MAY-SEP 375 93 435 315 405
ENNIS RESERVOIR INFLOW (2) MAY-JUL 465 88 575 355 530
MAY-SEP 605 89 735 475 680
GALLATIN R NR GATEWAY MAY-JUL 350 95 420 280 370
MAY-SEP 410 93 490 330 440
GALLATIN R AT LOGAN MAY-JUL 345 91 475 215 380
MAY-SEP 405 91 560 250 445
MISSOURI R AT TOSTON (2) MAY-JUL 1220 82 1680 755 1480
MAY-SEP 1450 82 2020 875 1760
MISSOURI R AT FORT BENTON (2) MAY-JUL 1820 83 2480 1160 2190
MAY-SEP 2250 84 3100 1400 2680
MISSOURI R NR VIRGELLE (2) MAY-JUL 2150 86 2900 1400 2510
MAY-SEP 2580 85 3570 1590 3030
MISSOURI R NR LANDUSKY (2) MAY-JUL 2270 86 3000 1540 2650
MAY-SEP 2740 86 3710 1770 3200
MISSOURI R BLW FT PECK DAM (2) MAY-JUL 2280 84 3160 1400 2700
MAY-SEP 2620 83 3820 1420 3160
LAKE SAKAKAWEA INFLOW (2) MAY-JUL 6140 85 7920 4360 7230
MAY-SEP 6950 84 9580 4320 8320
SHEEP CK NR WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS MAY-JUL 13.0 97 18.0 8.0 13.4
MAY-SEP 15.8 98 22 9.7 16.2
GIBSON RESERVOIR INFLOW (2) MAY-JUL 350 99 415 285 355
MAY-SEP 390 99 460 320 395
MARIAS R NR SHELBY (2) MAY-JUL 315 111 460 171 285
MAY-SEP 325 108 485 164 300
NF MUSSELSHELL R NR DELPINE MAY-JUL 3.0 91 5.4 0.59 3.3
MAY-SEP 3.7 90 6.5 0.87 4.1
SF MUSSELSHELL R AB MARTINSDALE MAY-JUL 27 73 59 7.5 37
MAY-SEP 29 73 62 7.5 40
MUSSELSHELL R AT HARLOWTON (2) MAY-JUL 33 69 85 -5.0 48
MAY-SEP 33 66 88 -4.0 50
MILK R AT WESTERN CROSSING MAY-SEP 20 80 62 2.1 25
MILK R AT EASTERN CROSSING MAY-SEP 50 107 123 3.0 41
YELLOWSTONE R AT YELLOWSTONE LAKE MAY-JUL 475 87 575 375 545
MAY-SEP 635 86 760 510 735
YELLOWSTONE R AT CORWIN SPRINGS MAY-JUL 1360 92 1620 1100 1480
MAY-SEP 1610 91 1920 1300 1770
YELLOWSTONE R AT LIVINGSTON MAY-JUL 1540 92 1860 1220 1670
MAY-SEP 1830 91 2210 1450 2010
YELLOWSTONE R AT BILLINGS MAY-JUL 2660 89 3350 1970 3000
MAY-SEP 3080 88 3930 2230 3490
YELLOWSTONE R AT MILES CITY (2) MAY-JUL 3730 85 4680 2780 4370
MAY-SEP 4260 85 5510 3010 5030
YELLOWSTONE R NR SIDNEY (2) MAY-JUL 3740 85 4870 2610 4380
MAY-SEP 4180 84 5680 2680 4980
BOULDER R AT BIG TIMBER MAY-JUL 250 93 300 199 270
MAY-SEP 270 93 330 210 290
STILLWATER R NR ABSAROKEE (2) MAY-JUL 365 87 450 280 420
MAY-SEP 435 88 540 330 495
CLARKS FK YELLOWSTONE R NR BELFRY MAY-JUL 460 96 530 390 480
MAY-SEP 500 95 585 415 525
BOYSEN RESERVOIR INFLOW (2) MAY-JUL 375 67 620 128 560
MAY-SEP 410 67 695 124 615
BIGHORN R AT KANE (2) MAY-JUL 575 75 890 260 770
MAY-SEP 600 72 950 250 830
BIGHORN R NR ST. XAVIER (2) MAY-JUL 990 79 1380 595 1260
MAY-SEP 1020 76 1460 580 1340
GREYBULL R NR MEETEETSE MAY-JUL 115 93 137 93 124
MAY-SEP 153 90 200 106 170
SHELL CK NR SHELL MAY-JUL 52 100 66 38 52
MAY-SEP 63 100 78 48 63
BUFFALO BILL RESERVOIR INFLOW (2) MAY-JUL 555 88 680 430 630
MAY-SEP 615 88 755 475 700
LITTLE BIGHORN R NR HARDIN MAY-JUL 62 73 92 32 85
MAY-SEP 72 74 104 40 97
TONGUE R NR DAYTON (2) MAY-JUL 74 93 101 47 80
MAY-SEP 86 93 115 57 92
TONGUE RIVER RESERVOIR INFLOW (2) MAY-JUL 145 83 235 55 175
MAY-SEP 166 84 260 70 198
ROCK CK NR BUFFALO MAY-JUL 16.2 92 22 10.0 17.7
MAY-SEP 19.7 94 26 13.0 21
NF POWDER R NR HAZELTON MAY-JUL 10.5 127 13.2 7.8 8.3
MAY-SEP 11.3 126 14.2 8.4 9.0
POWDER R AT MOORHEAD MAY-JUL 156 103 240 70 151
MAY-SEP 178 105 270 88 170
POWDER R NR LOCATE MAY-JUL 171 104 280 62 164
MAY-SEP 195 105 315 76 185
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN
50% % OF MAX MIN 30-YR
FORECAST POINT PERIOD (KAF) AVG (KAF) (KAF) AVG
-------------- ------ ------ ---- ----- ----- -----
NORTH PLATTE R NR NORTHGATE MAY-JUL 155 83 235 74 187
MAY-SEP 174 83 270 80 210
ENCAMPMENT R NR ENCAMPMENT MAY-JUL 91 77 124 58 118
MAY-SEP 98 77 133 63 127
ROCK CK NR ARLINGTON MAY-JUL 37 77 48 26 48
MAY-SEP 39 78 51 27 50
SEMINOE RESERVOIR INFLOW (2) MAY-JUL 420 68 715 127 615
MAY-SEP 460 69 785 136 670
LOWER NORTH PLATTE, SWEETWATER & LARAMIE RIVER BASINS
50% % OF MAX MIN 30-YR
FORECAST POINT PERIOD (KAF) AVG (KAF) (KAF) AVG
-------------- ------ ------ ---- ----- ----- -----
SWEETWATER R NR ALCOVA MAY-JUL 14.0 30 37 1.00 46
MAY-SEP 16.6 33 42 2.7 50
NORTH PLATTE R-ALCOVA TO ORIN GAIN MAY-JUL 26 27 128 -6.0 96
MAY-SEP 28 27 132 -6.0 104
NORTH PLATTE R BL GLENDO RES (2) MAY-JUL 460 69 705 215 670
MAY-SEP 485 69 735 235 700
NORTH PLATTE R BL GUERNSEY RES (2) MAY-JUL 480 72 775 185 670
MAY-SEP 515 74 820 210 700
LARAMIE R NR WOODS MAY-JUL 95 88 129 61 108
MAY-SEP 105 88 143 67 119
LITTLE LARAMIE R NR FILMORE MAY-JUL 36 75 50 22 48
MAY-SEP 39 75 55 23 52
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN
50% % OF MAX MIN 30-YR
FORECAST POINT PERIOD (KAF) AVG (KAF) (KAF) AVG
-------------- ------ ------ ---- ----- ----- -----
ANTERO RESERVOIR INFLOW (2) APR-JUL 10.1 70 15.1 6.5 14.5
APR-SEP 12.7 71 19.6 7.7 17.8
MAY-JUL 9.0 69 14.0 5.4 13.1
MAY-SEP 11.6 71 18.5 6.6 16.4
SPINNEY MOUNTAIN RES INFLOW (2) APR-JUL 45 94 61 32 48
APR-SEP 57 93 79 39 61
MAY-JUL 40 91 56 27 44
MAY-SEP 52 93 74 34 56
ELEVENMILE CANYON RES INFLOW (2) APR-JUL 45 90 61 31 50
APR-SEP 56 88 79 38 64
MAY-JUL 40 89 56 26 45
MAY-SEP 51 88 74 33 58
CHEESMAN LAKE INFLOW (2) APR-JUL 83 83 119 54 100
APR-SEP 106 84 155 67 126
MAY-JUL 76 88 112 47 86
MAY-SEP 99 88 148 60 113
SOUTH PLATTE R AT SOUTH PLATTE (2) APR-JUL 143 79 210 90 180
APR-SEP 185 82 260 122 225
MAY-JUL 132 85 197 79 156
MAY-SEP 174 85 250 111 205
BEAR CK AB EVERGREEN APR-JUL 13.3 81 21 8.0 16.4
APR-SEP 17.8 85 29 10.3 21
MAY-JUL 12.5 88 20 7.2 14.2
MAY-SEP 17.0 90 28 9.5 18.9
BEAR CK AT MORRISON APR-JUL 17.0 77 27 9.8 22
APR-SEP 22 79 37 12.2 28
MAY-JUL 15.7 87 26 8.5 18.1
MAY-SEP 21 88 36 10.9 24
CLEAR CK AT GOLDEN APR-JUL 90 86 108 75 105
APR-SEP 110 86 132 90 128
MAY-JUL 87 87 105 72 100
MAY-SEP 107 87 129 87 123
ST. VRAIN CK AT LYONS (2) APR-JUL 75 85 90 61 88
APR-SEP 88 85 108 71 103
MAY-JUL 69 86 84 55 80
MAY-SEP 82 86 102 65 95
BOULDER CK NR ORODELL (2) APR-JUL 47 87 56 39 54
APR-SEP 54 86 65 44 63
MAY-JUL 44 86 53 36 51
MAY-SEP 51 86 62 41 59
S BOULDER CK NR ELDORADO SPRINGS(2)APR-JUL 34 87 43 26 39
APR-SEP 38 88 49 29 43
MAY-JUL 32 91 41 24 35
MAY-SEP 36 92 47 27 39
BIG THOMPSON R AT CANYON MOUTH (2) APR-JUL 80 89 95 65 90
APR-SEP 96 90 117 75 107
MAY-JUL 77 91 92 62 85
MAY-SEP 93 91 114 72 102
CACHE LA POUDRE AT CANYON MOUTH (2)APR-JUL 200 89 245 160 225
APR-SEP 225 90 275 175 250
MAY-JUL 192 91 235 150 210
MAY-SEP 215 91 265 165 235
MAX (10%), 30%, 50%, 70% AND MIN (90%) CHANCE THAT ACTUAL VOLUME WILL EXCEED FORECAST.
AVERAGES ARE FOR THE 1981-2010 PERIOD.
ALL VOLUMES ARE IN THOUSANDS OF ACRE-FEET.
FOOTNOTES:
1) MAX AND MIN ARE 5% AND 95% CHANCE THAT ACTUAL VOLUME WILL EXCEED FORECAST
2) STREAMFLOW IS ADJUSTED FOR UPSTREAM STORAGE
3) MEDIAN VALUE USED IN PLACE OF AVERAGE
- National Weather Service
- Sacramento, CA Weather Forecast Office
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- Page last modified: May 1st, 2013 15:31 UTC