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000
FXUS62 KTAE 251432
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1032 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Forecast is on track. A weak frontal boundary may sag into our
northern areas today along with a seabreeze that will move inland
later today. Can`t rule out a sprinkle along the seabreeze or in
southeast Alabama later today. Otherwise, skies will be mostly
sunny and highs in the 80s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Northwesterly upper level flow prevails through tonight ahead of a
building upper level ridge currently across the central Plains. A
weak shortwave will traverse across the region in the northwesterly
flow aloft and combined with a warmer afternoon and slightly higher
preciptable waters, we`ll likely see a few more clouds around today.
Rain is not expected, but a brief rain shower can`t be ruled out
across our southeast Alabama counties, but even here rain chances
are less than 10%. Light north and northwest winds are forecast in
the morning and will become southerly through the afternoon as the
seabreeze develops and more through. High temperatures will be in
the mid 80s.

Quiet conditions are expected tonight with only forecast concerns
being patchy/areas of fog developing across the Panhandle
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Surface high pressure slowly slides eastward on Friday, while a
deep surface low develops over the central U.S. Upper level
ridging will be building in from the west during this period,
which will allow dry conditions to continue. The pressure gradient
between the surface high over the east and the low over the upper
Midwest/Great Lakes region will tighten allowing for breezier
conditions on Saturday.

Highs for Friday will generally be in the mid to upper 80s,
although the FL coast will may only top out in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Lows Friday night into Saturday morning will be in the
low to mid 60s.

Saturday`s highs will generally be in the mid 80s for inland
areas and low 80s near the coast. Saturday night into Sunday
morning, lows vary from the low to mid 60s for much of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Upper level ridging looks to hold along the eastern seaboard for
much of the region, with surface high pressure sliding down the
seaboard and towards Bermuda. This will generally hold and keep
fairly dry conditions in place. A disturbance passes to our north
midweek which could lead to some showers and rumbles of thunder to
our northern and eastern most counties late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period but brief
periods of MVFR/IFR conditions due to smoke and/or patchy fog is
possible at ECP, TLH, and VLD until 13/14z this morning. The
highest confidence is at ECP. After fog clears out, VFR
conditions and light winds are expected through the day.
Southerly flow will develop by the afternoon hours as the
southerly seabreeze makes inland progress.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

No major changes to the forecast as light and variable winds are
expected through the early morning. Winds will then shift to the
east and southeasterly allowing for a brief period of onshore flow
this afternoon. Winds once again go light and variable overnight,
with a east and south east flow regime taking over on Friday and
continuing into the weekend. With a strong pressure gradient
developing, and the combination of the Atlantic Seabreeze, expect
cautionary/advisory level conditions to develop for the weekend.
The strongest winds are likely to be in the overnight and early
morning hours as the easterly surges from the Atlantic seabreeze
pass through.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Light westerly and northwest are expected today with winds becoming
southerly across Florida and into southern AL/GA as the seabreeze
develops and moves inland in the afternoon. Dispersions will be
similar to Wednesday, but greater mixing potential is expected along
with warmer temperatures. Atmospheric stability will be a little
lower this afternoon compared to Wednesday so would not be surprised
for dispersions to verify a little higher than forecast today. Dry
conditions are expected again, and through the upcoming weekend.
Prevailing winds will increase Friday and into the weekend as an
east and southeasterly flow regime develops. This will likely bring
nocturnal increases in winds in the overnight hours. The only fire
weather concerns through the period will be high dispersions on
Friday and a period of higher dispersions over the weekend along
conditions continuing to dry out. No appreciable rainfall is
expected for at least the next 5 days, and possibly extending into
much of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Little to rain is forecast for the period, which means the only
hydrology concerns are with the ongoing riverine flooding. Minor
flooding continues along the middle and lower Suwannee, the lower
Withlacoochee, the Aucilla, and the St. Marks Rivers. The Aucilla
and St. Marks continue to fall and should exit flood stage in the
next 1 to 2 days. On the Suwannee, the flood wave is now near
Branford and will continue to move downstream over the next 5 to 7
days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  61  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   80  63  82  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        84  61  87  65 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        83  62  86  65 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      84  62  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    85  59  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  74  64  77  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...KR