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000
FXUS62 KTAE 151846
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
246 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...CORRECTION FOR SHORT AND LONG TERM...

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

High pressure conditions will continue through the rest of today
and tonight with mostly clear skies, dry weather, and mild winds
persisting through the forecast area. Potential for early morning
fog developments Tuesday morning High temperatures for inland
areas will be in the mid 80s for inland areas and in the upper 70s
along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down
into the mid 50s for inland areas and in the upper 50s and lower
60s near the shoreline.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

An east-west high pressure ridge continues to hold strong Tuesday
and Wednesday, with an upper level and surface low continuing off
to the north and east and away from the area. This low and
trailing cold front will break down the ridging a bit Wednesday
Night and through Thursday, though the front is expected to stall
and become very diffuse north of the area through this period as
the flow aloft will be mostly zonal. This regime should keep the
region dry, with just a good helping of mid and high clouds. Highs
are still expected to climb into the 80s Wednesday and even close
to 90 for some by Thursday.

Similar to Wednesday/Thursday, another front approaches from the
north and west by Friday, but is also expected to weaken before it
gets too close to the Gulf Coast. There may be enough energy left
with this boundary for a some isolated convection, but chances are
too low to include in the forecast for now. By the Saturday/Sunday
time frame, yet another front moves towards the area, and unlike
the previous scenarios, this boundary may have enough support and
momentum aloft to cross into and possibly through the whole
region, with chances for showers and t`storms returning. Very warm
conditions will continue Friday and into at least the start of the
weekend and perhaps through Sunday pending cold frontal timing.
Widespread 80s to around 90 are expected heading into the weekend,
except near the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions through most of the forecasted period with a
potential for reduced visibilities due to foggy conditions with
TLH, DHN and ECP most likely to be affected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

From CWF Synopsis...Favorable marine conditions are expected this
week with high pressure dominating. Southeast to south winds will
be the rule through much of the week. A clocking of winds to the
west and northwest appears possible by late week as a series of
weak frontal boundaries drift into the southeast United States.
Rain chances are low through this week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Dry conditions will persist over the next several days, though
layer moisture will tend to increase through this time frame with
a southerly flow regime. Dispersions are good this afternoon over
inland areas, but are expected to be higher on Tuesday and likely
Wednesday with similar to higher mixing heights and transport
winds. RH values are approaching critical values over parts of GA
counties, but will rise through Tuesday. This type of setup will
also be favorable for fog potential through the next several
mornings.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

An areal flood warning remains for Leon County for the areas of
Capitola, Chaires, and Baum of northeast Tallahassee. County
emergency management reports hazardous standing water and several
roadways remain closed.

Rivers continue to run high with flood warnings in place for
Pinetta, Quitman, above Valdosta at Skipper Bridge Rd (Withlacoochee
River), the Little River near Hahira, Aucilla at Lamont, St. Marks
Newport, Blountstown along the Apalachicola, and Thomasville and
US 27 for the Ochlockonee.

Significant rainfall is not anticipated over the next few days
with riverine flooding continuing. Flood warnings may be needed
on the Suwanee in the coming days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   56  85  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   59  81  64  79 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        56  84  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        56  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      57  87  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    57  87  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  61  75  65  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Scholl