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000
FXUS62 KTAE 151428
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1028 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Minor adjustments were made to account for current trends.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track for today.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Surface high pressure will continue slowly sliding east of the
FL Peninsula bringing benign conditions to the forecast area. Some
high clouds will overspread the area this afternoon as a result of
some moisture streaming in within the predominantly northwest flow
aloft with dry and pleasant conditions throughout the entirety of
the day. this morning and tomorrow morning, surface winds will
become calm as we decouple from the boundary layer enabling some
moistening to occur, especially across our FL Panhandle and SE AL
counties. This may be conducive to fog development in the morning
hours, eroding quickly after sunrise with better mixing as the
inversion erodes above the surface. Locally dense fog appears
possible in our FL Panhandle counties. High temperatures today are
forecast to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s with overnight lows in
the mid to upper 50s going into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Ridging is in place to start Tuesday as an upper low progresses
northeast from the central Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity.
This will cause the ridging to flatten out with flow becoming
more zonal Wednesday and into the weekend. Upstream convection
will help filter clouds into the area off and on mid to late week.
Despite this, highs will be well into the 80s and perhaps a few
low 90s along and south of I-10 and into the Florida Big Bend. A
weak cold front may make it into the southeast US Friday but
appears to weaken before reaching the Gulf coast. Another cold
front makes a run at our service area late in the weekend and may
have better success clearing the area. All and all, sensible
weather is favorable this period, not expecting much in the way of
precipitation at this time, and increasing clouds will not have
much effect on temperatures hitting well into the 80s and low 90s
after morning lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Currently, LIFR CIGs are being observed at KECP with 3SM
visibilities. At KDHN, visibilities have not dropped yet but it
remains possible this morning. All sites will become VFR for the
remainder of the day following 14z. Tomorrow morning, patchy fog is
once again possible at KDHN and KECP, though location remains
somewhat uncertain at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1021 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Buoys offshore this morning were reporting light southeast winds
and seas less than two feet, with a dominant period of around
five seconds.

From CWF Synopsis...Favorable marine conditions are expected this
week with high pressure dominating. Southeast to south winds will
be the rule through much of the week. A clocking of winds to the
west and northwest appears possible by late week as a series of
weak frontal boundaries drift into the southeast United States.
Rain chances are low through this week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Dry weather will persist through this forecast package, though
moisture will increase across the region as we pivot to
southeasterly flow today. Today, elevated transport winds and mixing
heights will yield generally good dispersions across the area with
locally elevated dispersions across our northernmost SE AL and SW GA
counties. MinRH will be in the 20-30% range inland with critical
values possible in our northernmost SW GA counties. Elevated
transport winds will carry over through the next few days with
generally good dispersions across the area with pockets of high
dispersions areawide. MinRH will continue to rebound through the
week as southerly flow pushes more moisture into the region.
Additionally, patchy fog will be possible through the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

An areal flood warning remains for Leon County for the areas of
Capitola, Chaires, and Baum of northeast Tallahassee. County
emergency management reports hazardous standing water and several
roadways remain closed.

Rivers continue to run high with flood warnings in place for
Pinetta, Quitman, above Valdosta at Skipper Bridge Rd (Withlacoochee
River), the Little River near Hahira, Aucilla at Lamont, St. Marks
Newport, Blountstown along the Apalachicola, and Thomasville and
US 27 for the Ochlockonee.

Significant rainfall is not anticipated over the next few days
with riverine flooding continuing. Flood warnings may be needed
on the Suwanee in the coming days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   78  59  81  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        83  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        85  56  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      86  57  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    85  57  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  74  61  75  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Scholl