Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 250202
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1002 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Marine stratocumulus are making their way across the I-75 corridor
near Lake City now and will overspread much of the rest of the
service area overnight. This may hold temperatures up a few
degrees, so have made a few upward adjustments to both temperature
and dewpoint through tomorrow morning. Have also increased sky
cover a bit through tomorrow morning. Winds are in good shape,
and no other changes were made.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Upper level ridging holds over the eastern seaboard through most of
Monday but will be pushed east by a deepening trough over the
central U.S.. At the surface, high pressure behaves similarly which
will lead to dry conditions throughout the day; however, the
pressure gradient between the ridge and the incoming storm system
will tighten. Increasing winds, starting from the east and then
shifting to the southeast by late in the afternoon, are forecast
with sustained 10 to 20 mph winds possible. Gusts will generally be
in the 20 to 35 mph range, though there is some uncertainty for
stronger winds gusts around 40 mph. The greatest confidence for
these winds would be in coastal Walton and Bay counties, but opted
to hold off on Wind Advisory for the time being.

In terms of temperatures, tonight lows will generally span the upper
40s to near 50 for SE AL and SW GA and for FL range from the low to
mid 50s. Highs for Monday were tweaked to be a bit cooler given the
trends we`ve had and increasing clouds. Opted to blend towards
BCCONSShort and CONSRaw, which brought the highs into the low to mid
70s for SE AL and SW GA, and to the mid to upper 70s for the FL
counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

The longwave trough begins approaching the Mississippi Valley
Monday night with an area of low pressure over the Upper Midwest.
This low continues lifting north-northeastward into the Hudson Bay
region by Wednesday morning. The training cold front will extend
all the way into the Gulf of Mexico. However, with the upper-level
support quickly exiting into Canada, the front slows to a crawl
somewhere over our area by Tuesday night. It may even briefly
stall out Tuesday night into Wednesday.

A line of storms will enter into our area late Tuesday morning
into Tuesday afternoon, but could be on the downward trend.
There`s plenty of deep layer shear (50-60 kt) and low-level shear
(25-30 kt), but instability will be limited given poor low-level
lapse rates. Still, given the abundant shear, an isolated strong
to severe storm cannot be ruled out with a damaging wind gust or
brief tornado. The line may get some reinvigoration late in the
afternoon into the overnight as a ribbon of instability moves in,
but this is a bit uncertain. The Storm Prediction Center has
outlined southeast Alabama into the western Big Bend in a Marginal
Risk of severe weather. Some locally heavy rainfall is also
possible Tuesday and Tuesday night with the front decelerating.

Winds will also remain elevated with 15-20 mph winds and gusts
25-30 mph. Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s with lows in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

The cold front finally gets one last push from a southern stream
shortwave on Wednesday. The problem is, cyclogenesis will likely
occur somewhere along the front, enhancing rain and storms again.
If the low develops on top or north of us, then there could be a
low-end severe threat as well as a heavy rain threat that
materializes Wednesday. If it`s to our south or east, then severe
weather would be less likely. Regardless, the front exits our area
on Thursday morning, taking the last of the rain chances with it.
A quick shot of cool air follows behind for Thursday into Friday
with lows in the 40s and highs near 70. This is short lived as we
return to the 80s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Have amended to add some MVFR stratocumulus to all terminals
starting around sunrise. Satellite imagery and surface obs show
stratocumulus with bases around 018-025 advancing west across the
I-75 corridor in Florida right now. HREF shows these clouds will
overspread all terminals by sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Have decided to issue a Gale Warning for the waters west of
Apalachicola starting Monday morning and going through Tuesday
morning. The winds are borderline tonight but really ramp up near
and after daybreak Monday.

From CWF Synopsis...The pressure gradient between the surface
ridging digging in from the northeast and the approaching cold
front will lead to a quick increase in east to southeast winds
over the waters beginning tonight and lasting through Monday
night. Borderline gale conditions are possible over the western
waters tonight becoming likely on Monday with generally small
craft conditions farther east. Seas also build to 6 to 10 feet
during this time. The cold front slowly approaches Tuesday into
Wednesday, though the pressure gradient relaxes. This will lead to
a reduction in winds and seas by mid week. Winds become northerly
after the front passes Wednesday night into Thursday with
cautionary conditions possible again to end the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

The main fire weather concerns will be high dispersions the rest of
this afternoon and again tomorrow. Otherwise, one more day of dry
weather is forecast before the next storm system arrives. Winds will
increase head of this system with sustained speeds around 8 to 15
mph tonight, increasing to about 10 to 18 mph by tomorrow afternoon.
Winds will hold from the east at first, but will take on a
southeasterly component late in the afternoon. Rain and thunder
arrive Tuesday with wet weather lingering into midweek.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Locally heavy rainfall is looking like an increasing possibility
for Tuesday and Wednesday. Rainfall totals have come up a good bit
since the previous forecast--now widespread 1.5 to 3 inches with
isolated higher amounts. Looking at ensemble guidance, it appears
the most likely area for the heaviest rainfall would be from about
Panama City to Albany eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday. This
is about the location the front will slow down and stall briefly.
The Weather Prediction Center has introduced a Slight Risk (level
2 of 4) for southeast Alabama, far southwest Georgia, and the
Florida Panhandle for Tuesday night with a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 4) area wide for Wednesday. Given the possibility of locally
heavier rain from slow-moving storms, there is at least some
potential for flash flooding. Flash flood guidance is a bit lower
across AL and GA with 3.5-4.5 inches in 6 hours and about 4-5
inches in 6 hours in FL.

On the rivers, all rivers have fallen out of flood stage and have
gotten a break to recede. However, depending on where the heavy
rain sets up, we may see a return to action stage or even minor
flooding on the rivers later this week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   52  78  63  77 /   0   0   0  20
Panama City   57  75  65  74 /   0   0  10  50
Dothan        51  74  62  74 /   0   0  10  70
Albany        49  71  59  77 /   0   0   0  40
Valdosta      50  74  59  81 /   0   0   0  10
Cross City    53  79  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  59  69  65  71 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 1 AM CDT Wednesday for
     FLZ108-112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765-
     775.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ750-752-770-
     772.

     Gale Warning from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ750-752-
     770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Young


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