665
FXUS62 KTAE 100757
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
357 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Watching two areas of convection at the moment, one across central
Alabama and one further west into central/southern Mississippi and
will gradually enter western Alabama. Outflow from earlier storms
runs north of Apalachicola northwest into central Alabama. Dewpoints
east of this boundary in the low to mid 60s and dewpoints west
are in the mid 70s. MLCAPE in the area runs from 1000-2000 J/kg
with higher readings further west. Some inhibition east of the
outflow and much less further west. The outflow boundary is
expected to slowly move back north and east overnight as a mid
level disturbance approaches and southerly winds become more
dominant ahead of this feature.

Assessing the latest CAMs, convection over central Alabama will
drift southeast and into our northern counties before 1AM. Some
questions on how far south this convection can go into our area
before significantly weakening as the atmosphere east of the
outflow boundary is more stable. Additional convection may fire
into the panhandle in that same timeframe while convection in
southern Mississippi/western Alabama races towards the area
towards 5AM. These two areas congeal through the night while
convection in Texas races along the Gulf coast towards the area in
the morning hours.

The enhanced risk from SPC remains overnight with destructive winds
70-80+ mph along with tornadoes and large hail. Residents are urged
to have several ways to receive warnings, and make sure these
devices and means are charged and the volume is up loud as much
of this will be occurring at night. These systems have the
potential to produce widespread damage along its track.

Appears the MCS will push through the area in the morning hours,
trends continue to show residual showers and storms develop into the
afternoon hours. Flooding may become an issue depending on how the
MCS evolves and moves across the area and convection that develops
behind the it. Keep pops going further west into the afternoon hours
and may have to expand if convection does develop further west into
the panhandle.

Pops will be winding down Friday night as a cold front moves
through. Highs will be in the 80s today and lows tonight will fall
in the low 60s. Dewpoints fall into the mid 50s behind the front so
it will feel like a crisp morning into Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Being post-frontal will lead to relatively cooler temps and a
decrease in moisture as northerly flow prevails throughout the short
term. Although surface winds will be southerly near the coast during
the afternoon hours due to the sea breeze, high pressure will lead
to large-scale subsidence. Limiting development to fair weather Cu
or developing towers that fizzle away. Overall, a nice weekend is on
tap.

Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Next week a parade of shortwaves looks to move across the north Gulf
states with several rounds of weather possible. Given upper-level
support and good instability and decent low-level shear there`s a
fair chance for multiple rounds of severe weather. Given the
mesoscale nature of these disturbances it`s far too early to get
into specifics, however, once we get into Tuesday and beyond we`re
looking at an active period.

Expect daytime highs initially in the upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday
to climb back up into the upper 80s to low 90s by Thursday.
Similarly, expect overnight lows initially in the low to mid 60s
initially climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Clusters of storms are currently moving through southwest Georgia
with a more intense line moving into southern Alabama. This area
will move eastward and pose a damaging wind threat, along with
some hail and isolated tornadoes. Kept the timing of TSRA and
strong wind gusts as is from the previous TAFs and will amend as
needed. Cigs will lower to MVFR/IFR overnight with vsby
restrictions primarily underneath heavier convection. All and all,
poor flying conditions through the afternoon hours until the
convection passes to the east.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

A cold front will slowly approach from the northwest today, preceded
by strong to severe thunderstorms over the waters. Cautionary
conditions could be possible throughout today into tomorrow morning.
The front will limp across the waters on tonight. It will be
followed by moderate to occasionally fresh northerly breezes on
Saturday morning. Surface high pressure over the southern Plains on
Saturday will move across the Southeast States on Sunday, causing
winds to clock around. High pressure will move east into the
Atlantic on Monday, brining a return to southerly flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Through early this afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to increase
in coverage and intensity as a complex of storms moves through the
region. Severe storms including destructive winds, hail, and
isolated tornadoes will all be possible. By late afternoon or early
evening, the rain will move east of the Florida Big Bend with drying
conditions into the weekend. The weather pattern will remain
unsettled into next week with several rounds of wetting rains and
possible severe weather.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

A marginal risk of excessive rainfall is place today for most of the
area as a frontal system looks to push through the region. The
primary risk here being torrential downpours or training within any
thunderstorm(s) leading to a localized flash flooding risk.
Otherwise, area rivers are expected to remain below flood stage. In
the extended period the WPC is forecasting 3-5 inches by midweek
next week. This could introduce some riverine concerns, however,
it`s too far out to say with any degree of confidence.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  63  84  62 /  90  10   0   0
Panama City   84  65  83  65 /  80   0   0   0
Dothan        82  60  81  60 /  80   0   0   0
Albany        82  59  81  58 /  70   0   0   0
Valdosta      82  62  82  60 /  90  10   0   0
Cross City    87  65  86  60 /  60  30   0   0
Apalachicola  83  67  82  66 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Oliver