454
AXNT20 KNHC 140426
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue May 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0417 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 05N21W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 02N32W and to 04N50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to
07N and east of 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold and warm fronts over the north-western and north-central
Gulf respectively, are producing strong thunderstorms N of 25.5N
west of 88W. The fast-moving squalls are producing gusts to near
gale-force, frequent lightning strikes and heavy downpours. Over
the northeastern Gulf, a pair of troughs are producing scattered
moderate to strong convection N of 27N east of 85W. Otherwise,
weak high pressure dominates the rest of the basin, maintaining
fairly dry weather conditions. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas
of 4-6 ft are present off northern Yucatan, especially south of
24N and between 87W and 88W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

Agricultural fires in SE Mexico and Central America, along with
southerly flow over the Gulf of Mexico, result in hazy skies
across the western portion of the basin, especially in the Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will linger
across the northern Gulf over the next few days along with an
inverted trough. This will cause heavy rain and thunderstorms
over the northern basin the next few days. Meanwhile, moderate
to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, pulsing to strong
near the Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan Channel. Winds may weaken
somewhat during the upcoming weekend as the gradient relaxes.
Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Mexico continues
across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1022 mb high pressure system
near 36N71W and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain
strong to near-gale easterly trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present
in the north-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
support strong to near gale E to SE winds near the Gulf of
Honduras, with fresh to strong winds expected in the south-
central basin through most of the week. Seas will build through
the week as a result of the increasing winds. Gentle to moderate
winds are expected elsewhere through most of the week.
Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America
continues across some areas of the northwestern Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed entering the basin near 31N56W and
continues southwestward to 27N57W then becomes a stationary
front and extends to 24N73W. Scattered showers are evident on
satellite imagery ahead of the frontal boundary to 51W and north
of 26N. Tightening pressure gradient sustains moderate to fresh
southerly winds west of 77W and north of 26N. The rest of the
basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge over
the NE Atlantic. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail elsewhere in the central and western Atlantic.

Farther east, fresh to strong northerly winds and 7-10 ft seas
are noted north of 15N and east of 22W. In the rest of the
eastern Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front is forecast
to progress eastward while weakening, reaching from near 27N55W
to 22N65W by early Tue. High pressure will build in its wake.
Fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas are forecast
offshore N Florida by late tonight ahead of another possible
cold front. That front may reach from near 31N76W to 27N80W by
early Thu, weakening and stalling from 31N69W to near the
northern Bahamas by early Fri. Conditions around the front
should improve by late Fri into the upcoming weekend.

$$
KRV