853
AXNT20 KNHC 300550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Apr 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues
southwestward to 09N20W. The ITCZ extends from 09N20W to 00N30W
to 02S42W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed from 00N to 05N between 10W and 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An outflow boundary continues to support a line of strong
thunderstorms moving across the northwest Gulf. This activity is
starting to weaken, but frequent lightning, strong gusts, and
locally rough seas are ongoing. A 1023 mb high pressure between
Bermuda and the Bahamas support moderate to fresh SE winds over
much of the Gulf, except for strong winds off northern and western
Yucatan. Moderate SE flow is evident elsewhere between 1021 mb
high pressure over the western Atlantic and a trough over central
Mexico. Combined seas across the Gulf are generally 5 to 7 ft,
except within the strong winds associated with the outflow
boundary, seas are 8 to 9 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high-pressure will weaken
over the next couple of days, resulting in diminishing winds and
seas across the basin. Winds and seas will increase late this week
in the western half of the Gulf, pulsing to strong speeds at
night near the Yucatan Peninsula and south- central Gulf into the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer satellite data indicates mostly moderate to
fresh winds within the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras.
An earlier altimeter satellite pass indicated seas to 8 ft off
Belize. Moderate winds and combined seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere
across the basin. No significant convection is noted across the
basin.

For the forecast, the high pressure located between the Bahamas
and Bermuda will gradually weaken over the next few days. Fresh to
locally strong easterly winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras,
Windward Passage, offshore southern Hispaniola and NW Colombia
will diminish by Wed. Northerly swell will support rough seas
through the passages in the NE Caribbean through Wed. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate easterly winds are forecast for the eastern
half of the Caribbean Thu and Fri while light to gentle winds will
dominate elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The pressure gradient between high pressure near 31N73W and lower
pressures over the southern Caribbean supports fresh to strong
easterlies over the Bahamas, south of 24N and west of 70W. A cold
front extends from 31N40W to 21N50W. A shear line continues SW
from the end of the cold front to near St. Martin. Fresh to strong
NE winds are north of the shear line to 22N, where seas are 6 to 8
ft. 8 to 13 ft seas follow the front north of 22N between 45W and
65W. Elsewhere behind the front, moderate winds and seas are
noted.

Farther east, fresh to strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas
are noted east of 35W over the eastern Atlantic, south of a strong
ridge over of the Azores.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NW winds behind
the cold front will continue to affect the waters north of 28N
between 55W and 65W through Tue evening. Long period northerly
swell with peak seas to 14 ft will start subsiding tonight as the
front continues to shift eastward. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds will continue over the waters S of 24N and W of 60W through
Wed, especially in the approaches of the Windward Passage. More
tranquil marine conditions are expected afterwards as high
pressure becomes centered over the NW waters.

$$
Mora