000
AXNT20 KNHC 140427
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Apr 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A broad subtropical ridge north of the
Greater Antilles is forcing fresh to near gale-force easterly
trade winds across the south-central Caribbean Sea. Winds will
pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia tonight and Sun
night. Seas are 8-12 ft in the area described, with the highest
seas off NW Colombia. Conditions will improve by midweek.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A weak 1016 mb low pressure system near
32N32W is slowly moving southward into the north-central tropical
Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the 1039 mb high
pressure system in the far north Atlantic and the aforementioned
low result in strong to gale-force northerly winds north of 26N
and between 35W and 44W. Seas in these waters are 12-17 ft. The
strongest winds and highest seas are occurring near 31N37W. Winds
will drop below gale-force Sunday morning and below strong force
late Monday. Seas are forecast to peak near 18 ft Monday morning and
then gradually subside, dropping below 12 ft Monday evening.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W and continues southward to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N19W to 00N33W and to 01S46W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed south of 03N and west of
22W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad subtropical ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico
dominates the basin, maintaining fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds are found south
of 24N and east of 94W, including the Florida Straits. Seas in
these waters are 3-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and
seas of 2-5 ft are noted north of 23N and west of 93W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure dominates the Gulf basin. Strong
winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the
evening the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds
with slight to moderate seas can be expected through the weekend
and into early next week. Winds will briefly increase over the
western Gulf the middle of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a gale
warning off NW Colombia.

Pockets of low-level moisture in the NE Caribbean Sea and Gulf of
Honduras are producing light, isolated showers. Outside of the
gale warning region, the broad subtropical ridge north of the
Greater Antilles forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds in
the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-8
ft. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 3-6 ft are evident in the
lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail off the coast
of Colombia, pulsing to gale-force tonight and Sun night. Seas
will build to near 12 ft during the period of gale force winds.
Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Windward Passage, S of
the Dominican Republic, and in the Lee of Cuba. Otherwise,
moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas can be expected
across much of the basin through the weekend and into early next
week. Fresh to occasionally strong winds may develop in the Gulf
of Honduras midweek.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a gale
warning in the north-central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N64W to 25N71W, where it becomes a
stationary front to the coast of NE Cuba. A pre-frontal trough is
analyzed from 27N65W to NW Hispaniola. Light showers are noted
near the frontal boundary and surface trough. Fresh to locally
strong southerly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are evident north of 28N
and from the front to 58W. A subtropical ridge dominates the
remainder of the western Atlantic behind the frontal boundary,
supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas,
especially east of 77W.

Farther east, a shear line extends from 30N26W to the Leeward
Islands. Outside of the gale warning area, a recent scatterometer
satellite pass show fresh to locally strong N-NE winds north of
the shear line and east of 60W. Seas in the area described are
8-12 ft. In the remaining waters, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate to rough seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N64W to
25N70w where it stalls to central Cuba. This front will continue
to stall from 31N61W to eastern Cuba through Sun and gradually
dissipate. Strong winds occurring E of the front N of 30N will
diminish tonight. Rough seas accompanying the front will subside
by Sun morning. Large N-NE swell across the SE waters will linger
through the weekend. Otherwise, high pressure will build in the
wake of the front through early next week with more tranquil
marine conditions expected.

$$
Delgado