000
ACUS01 KWNS 180101
SWODY1
SPC AC 180058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PERSISTING THROUGH THE
EVENING WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM ERN CO/FAR
WRN KS NWD INTO SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE.  THE SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL
WY AND THE NRN EXTENT OF THE NEB PANHANDLE AND WRN NEB AS THEY TRACK
SSEWD.  ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO SLY AND
STRENGTHEN TO 25-30 KT THIS EVENING...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR
A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE FOR ONE OR TWO TSTM CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS LATER THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STORMS THAT HAVE MOVED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND FAR W TX
WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO N-S ORIENTED BROKEN LINES AS
INDICATED BY CURRENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY.  A MOIST...
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF WEST TX COMBINED WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 40-45 KT WILL FAVOR SEVERE STORMS...SOME
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN THE LINES.  ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS WILL
PERSIST ALONG A NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW ENHANCED BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN.  A DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS
OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS UP TO 40
DEGREES...ENHANCING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FOR THIS REASON AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWD MOVING MCS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER THE
TX HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN HAVE RESULTED IN A SWD SHIFT
OF THE 30 PERCENT SEVERE WIND THREAT AREA.

...SRN LOWER MI INTO NERN OH/NWRN PA/WRN NY...
A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE YET THIS
EVENING ACROSS THESE AREAS PRIOR TO THE STABILIZATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

...NORTH CENTRAL MT...
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 35 KT WILL
SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS ACTIVITY MOVES
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO NORTH CENTRAL MT.

..PETERS.. 06/18/2013