Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 280715
SWODY3
SPC AC 280714

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAROLINAS.

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS/OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND MID MO VALLEY WITH WEST NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATING ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 60S F WHICH
SHOULD ENABLE MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WARM SECTOR. IN ADDITION...A SRN PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KT
MAY RESULT IN MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF KS BY EARLY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT WICHITA KS FOR 00Z/FRI SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500 J/KG...25 TO 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 9.0 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLS WITH
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL.
THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS MO WHERE
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST.

...CAROLINAS...
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN PARTS
OF THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...A LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST
IN THE PIEDMONT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
THE SFC TROUGH. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F IN ERN NC AND IN MUCH OF
SC SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE THE
MOST WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED. DUE TO THE VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MARGINALLY SEVERE WET DOWNBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES.. 06/28/2016

$$


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