Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 010731
SWODY3
SPC AC 010730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE KY/TN VICINITY SWWD TO
AR/LA AND POSSIBLY E TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE W SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS TO S TX...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS FRIDAY; SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW FIELD IS FORECAST DAY 3 AS
TROUGHING SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND A GULF OF
AK LOW/TROUGH SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND ADJACENT WRN
STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL/STABLE CONTINENTAL AIR IS PROGGED TO SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...AS A COLD FRONT DEMARCATING THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS CROSSES THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTAL
STATES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WSWWD INTO SRN AND ERN TX...
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION INVOF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SWWD ACROSS THE TN
AND LOWER MS VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT ADVANCES
INTO A MOIST/DESTABILIZING AFTERNOON AIRMASS.  AS STORMS DEVELOP AND
INGEST MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR...STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WLYS
ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITHIN A
FAVORED CORRIDOR FROM THE TN/KY AREA WSWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.  HERE...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IS
EVIDENT WITH STRONGER STORMS...LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MORE
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN AND INTO SRN TX --
WHERE A WEAKER KINEMATIC BUT MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A LIMITED-COVERAGE SEVERE RISK
THAT MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GOSS.. 04/01/2015



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