000
ACUS11 KWNS 161643
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161643
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-161815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0459
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Areas affected...eastern Nebraska...western Iowa...and far
southeastern South Dakota.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 161643Z - 161815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch may be needed in the next 1 to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Skies have cleared across eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa over the last hour with rapid destabilization underway. SPC
mesoanalysis shows around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the region which
may increase to around 1500 J/kg within the next 1 to 2 hours.
However, the dry slot is punching into this area which will dry the
atmosphere from the south. The window for sufficient instability
will therefore be somewhat narrow. However, rapidly cooling
temperatures aloft and the moderate instability should support at
least some hail and tornado threat this afternoon.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   41389703 41489762 41619772 41879767 42219765 42459745
            42959692 43339619 43409527 43249467 42199455 41339499
            41339607 41389703